The Tampa Bay Rays might have fallen to fourth in the AL East standings, but coming off a 4-0 win over the Dodgers on Saturday, they should be riding a little momentum into another matchup with the reigning world champions on Sunday. Yandy Diaz homered twice off Dodgers starter Blake Snell in yesterday’s win, and now he’ll look to stay hot against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the series rubber match. The latest MLB odds list the Rays as +167 underdogs, but the model sees value in backing Tampa Bay.
It says the Rays win in 50% of simulations, creating incredible value at those odds, and is also backing the Mariners (+121) and an alt-under in Rockies vs. Pirates. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlays, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model. Bet on every MLB game at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the latest DraftKings promo code:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 40 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Also see the model’s picks for Red Sox vs. Astros and Dodgers vs. Rays.
The model has broken down the MLB betting odds for Sunday and just revealed its top MLB longshot picks. Combining the model’s three picks into an MLB parlay would result in a payout of +1180 (risk $100 to win $1,180). New users can even take advantage of the bet365 bonus code, offering $150 in bonus bets with the placement of a $5+ bet. Click here to claim the offer.
Here are its best longshot bets for the MLB slate on Sunday:
- Rays money line vs. Dodgers (+167)
- Mariners money line vs. Rangers (+121)
- Alternate Under 10.5 total runs for Rockies vs. Pirates (+117)
- Combine these picks for a shot at a +1180 payout (odds subject to change). Bet now at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if you don’t win.
Rays money line vs. Dodgers (+167)
The Rays have fallen 10 games back in the AL East and are now four games back in the AL Wild Card race, but this line still skews far too heavily towards the Dodgers given that they’re on the road. Los Angeles is only 29-26 away from home this season, and the Rays are still +49 in run differential this season despite being two games under .500. The record is misleading, and the model’s prediction that Tampa wins in 50% of simulations far outpaces the implied odds of 37.5%.
Mariners money line vs. Rangers (+121)
Jacob deGrom has been excellent in a comeback season after making only 47 starts over the last five seasons. However, he hasn’t been nearly as dominant against the Mariners this season as he has against most MLB teams. He’s made two starts against Seattle and has given up two home runs and four earned runs while allowing six hits and six walks. The model has the Mariners winning in 58% of simulations.
Rockies vs. Pirates to go Under 10.5 total runs (alt. line, +117)
Coors Field is hitter-friendly because of the thin air, and Rockies starter Bradley Blalock enters the game with a 7.09 ERA, but that’s over an extremely limited sample size (33 innings). Meanwhile, Mitch Keller of the Pirates is having arguably the best season of his career, with a 3.69 ERA and a 3.45 FIP while striking out 100 over 127 innings. There were 46 combined runs scored over the first two games of the series with 33 of those runs scored in Game 1. That’s driving this total up here despite the model predicting that 10 runs are scored on average tonight.
Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s MLB best longshot bets for Sunday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a 76-66-1 roll on his last 143 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up nearly 16 units.
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