Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to make his third appearance as a pitcher for the Dodgers on Saturday as they take on the Royals at 4:10 p.m. ET. Ohtani, who didn’t pitch in 2024 due to an elbow injury, has been slowly working his way back. He’s expected to go an inning or two for Los Angeles in this one. The Royals, meanwhile, have Seth Lugo no the hill. He is second among KC starters in ERA (2.93) and first in WHIP (1.05), setting up the potential for a low-scoring game. That’s why SportsLine’s model is backing the Under (9.5) in this matchup.
Elsewhere on the 15-game Saturday MLB schedule, the model is backing two underdogs, taking the Phillies +134 on the money line against the Braves. It also likes the Pirates +1.5 (-129) to cover the run line against the Mets. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlay picks, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 14 of the 2025 MLB season on a profitable 41-32 run on top-rated MLB picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, entering this week returning more than 22 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
The model has broken down the MLB odds for Saturday and just revealed its top MLB picks. Combining the model’s three picks into an MLB parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a payout of +677 (risk $100 to win $677). New users can even take advantage of the DraftKings promo code offering $150 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 wager.
Here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Saturday
- Pirates +1.5 vs. Mets (-129)
- Phillies on the money line against the Braves (+134)
- Under 9.5 runs in Dodgers vs. Royals (-115)
- Combine these picks for a shot at a +667 payout (odds subject to change)
Pirates +1.5 vs. Mets (-129)
Paul Skenes draws the headlines for the Pirates, but Saturday starter Bailey Falter has also been solid for Pittsburgh, going 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA. Backing the Pirates when Falter starts has returned money-line bettors +463 this year. New York starter Paul Blackburn, meanwhile, has struggled with a 6.62 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in five appearances this season. The Pirates crushed the struggling Mets on Friday 9-1, and the model is projecting a tight matchup on Saturday, giving the Pirates the edge on the run line as they cover nearly 70% of the time.
Phillies on the money line vs. the Braves (+134)
Atlanta has been one of the worst teams in baseball to back as the Braves have returned -1881 on the money line this season in the midst of a sub-.500 season overall. After showing some life earlier in the week, Atlanta has dropped three straight heading into Saturday, including losing 13-0 to the Phillies on Friday. Spencer Schwellenbach is on the mound for Atlanta, which is a big factor in why the Braves are favored. With an offense that can’t be relied on, however, the model is fading the Braves and backing the Phillies to win in 50% of simulations, making them the value pick for MLB parlays as the underdogs.
Under 9.5 runs in Dodgers vs. Royals (-115)
It’s tough to say what the Dodgers’ pitching plans will look like with Ohtani not expected to go past the second inning as he continues to work his way back. Regardless, the Royals are struggling mightily on offense right now, averaging just 1.6 runs per game in their last five outings. Lugo is dependable enough to keep Los Angeles in check, making the Under the value play as the teams combine for 8.4 runs in the simulations. New users can get even more value by taking advantage of the FanDuel promo code offering $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s MLB best bets for Saturday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 170-100 roll on his last 270 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up units.
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