Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 30: Wilyer Abreu among best bets for Monday HR player props

Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu might still be a platoon player, but his prowess against right-handed pitching has made him a popular choice for MLB home run betting this season. Abreu has 14 home runs in 237 at-bats this season and all 14 of those home runs (as well as 203 of his at-bats) have come against right-handed pitching. On Monday, Abreu and the Red Sox will match up with Reds right-hander Chase Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft who will be making his second career start. Burns is an undeniable talent, but he did surrender a homer in his first MLB appearance and Abreu figures to be a major speed bump on Monday. 

That’s why he’s one of our top MLB HR picks tonight and FanDuel — where you can also get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with this FanDuel promo code — is offering a +420 return in its latest MLB HR odds. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. After nailing Juan Soto (+450), Riley Greene (+425) and Ketel Marte (+500) the last three days, it’s up 24.40 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 83 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Monday, June 30:

• Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+420)
• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+600)
• Josh Jung, Rangers (+600)
• Parlay these picks for +25380 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+420)

Abreu went 0-for-2 as a pinch hitter on Sunday with the Blue Jays starting lefty Eric Lauer, but he did go 2-for-6 with a double, a home run and four RBI in his last start on Saturday. The 26-year-old Venezuelan has hit 30 of his 31 career home runs against right-handed pitching and he has a career average exit velocity of 91.3 mph.

“The Reds rookie was unhittable in his first few innings before surrendering a home run to Ben Rice and two more runs in the 4th inning. Burns has elite stuff, but major league hitters will make him pay if he misses his locations,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +360 for Abreu to homer today.” FanDuel is offering the best price here, but BetMGM is the best value for our MLB HR parlay and Abreu is still a positive EV play at +400 there.

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+600)

Marte was on our board yesterday and came through for a +500 payout, yet he’s fetching an even better price today. Giants righty Logan Webb is the likely reason, as he sports a 2.52 ERA this season and has held Marte to a .208 average in 24 career at-bats against him. However, Marte does have two doubles and a homer against Webb and he’s red-hot entering Monday’s matchup.

“Marte hit his 17th HR in just 57 games when he went deep yesterday. 14 of those 17 home runs have been against right-handed pitchers. In games this month, Marte has hit nine home runs,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +420 for Marte to homer.” BetMGM is offering the best price for Marte to homer, and you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code.

Josh Jung, Rangers (+600)

An MLB all-star as a rookie in 2023, Jung battled injuries in 2024 and is off to a sluggish start in 2025. However, he did snap a 32-game homerless streak last Wednesday and has five RBI in his last five games. He had a 4.3% home run rate over his first three seasons (805 plate appearances) in the majors, but only has a 2.7% home run rate in 2025. So he could be due for some positive regression on that front, as well.

“This is more of a longshot play, but we are betting on Jung’s career splits being strong against left-handed pitchers. Jung has an .840 career OPS against left-handed pitching,” Fetner said. “In his 3 MLB starts this season, Trevor Rogers has looked very good, but we expect some regression, especially considering he had a 5.51 ERA in the minor leagues before getting called up.” BetMGM and bet365 are offering this price today, and you can get $150 in bonus bets after making a $10 deposit and $5 wager with this bet365 promo code.

Where to bet MLB props on Monday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Monday:

More MLB picks for Monday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Snyder, who is on a 11-5 roll (+714) on player prop picks.