Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 29: Ketel Marte among best bets for Sunday HR player props

Had Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte not missed nearly a month with a hamstring strain, he might be one of the few players in the National League who could actually give Shohei Ohtani a run for NL MVP honors. Marte is slashing .306/.407/.592 with 16 home runs and 36 RBI in 56 games and is sporting a 1.082 OPS in June after hitting three home runs in his last five games. On Sunday, he’ll match up with the Marlins at home and is 3-for-11 with a home run in his career against Miami starter Cal Quantrill. That’s a big reason why we’re including Marte among our top MLB HR picks for Sunday with BetMGM offering +500 in its latest MLB home runs odds. 

You can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code, allowing you to play this pick and the rest of our MLB HR parlay with limited risk. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. After nailing Juan Soto (+450) on Friday and Riley Greene (+425) on Saturday, it’s up 21.40 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 82 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and don’t miss our free picks for Twins vs. Tigers, our top MLB parlay for Sunday, and our top MLB props for Sunday.

Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 29:

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+370)

Kurtz went No. 4 overall in the 2024 MLB Draft less than a year ago, but the former Wake Forest star sped through the Athletics’ farm system and has already launched 12 home runs in 45 games this season. He’s 80th percentile or better among MLB hitters already in expected slugging (.510), average exit velocity (92.2 mph), barrel rate (15.2%), hard-hit contact rate (48.1%) and bat speed (77.6 mph), which paints a pretty clear picture that his power is no fluke.

“Yankees starting pitcher Marcus Stroman is making his first start in over two months and wasn’t particularly effective before suffering his injury. Stroman allowed 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings to start the season. Stroman also wasn’t particularly effective in his rehab outings, allowing 13 hits and eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set his line at +340 to homer.” DraftKings is offering the best price for Kurtz to homer on Sunday and you can potentially add even more value with the latest DraftKings promo code.

Junior Caminero, Rays (+400)

Caminero is a week away from his 22nd birthday, but he’s starting to settle in at the plate and has the potential to be one of the MLB’s most dangerous hitters. He has a 1.021 OPS over the last two weeks with four home runs, and he’s up to 20 home runs on the season. His 78.0 mph bat speed is 100th percentile among MLB hitters and that kind of dynamic raw power makes him a threat to go yard any time he squares one up, which is something he’s done more frequently of late.

“This is a strong matchup for Caminero who is hitting .274 with 16 of his 20 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season,” Fetner said. “We set Caminero’s line at +300 to hit a homer.” FanDuel is offering the best odds on this play, and new users also get $150 in bonus bets if their first $5 bet wins with this FanDuel promo code.

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+500)

Marte has hit all 16 of his home runs in a 43-game span dating back to May 8, and that’s the third-most in the MLB in that time. He’s had eight multi-hit games in June too, and this is a rare opportunity to ride a proven bat during a hot streak in a great matchup at an incredible price.

“Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Quantrill is good against left-handed batters but has been getting destroyed against right-handed batters, who are hitting .368 with a 1.059 OPS against him,” Fetner said. “We continue to believe that Marte’s home run line is mispriced. Unfortunately, we weren’t on him yesterday when he hit a home run, but we like him today given his +500 line.” Given Quantrill’s splits and Marte’s success against him, the switch-hitter could theoretically hit from either side on Sunday.

Where to bet MLB props on Sunday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Sunday:

More MLB picks for Sunday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Snyder, who is on a 10-4 roll (+714) on player prop picks.