Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 21: Byron Buxton among best bets for Saturday HR player props

With temperatures expected to be in the mid to high-90s at Target Field in Minneapolis on Saturday, the ball could be flying out of the park with regularity. Couple that with a red-hot hitting Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins and the center fielder could also be in for another big day at the plate. Buxton had four home runs in a three-game stretch prior to Friday’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers. He will be facing left-hander Jose Quintana on Saturday. Buxton has a .326 average and 1.094 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, and has hit Quintana in his career, going 5-for-20 with three extra-base hits. Thus, he’s one of SportsLine’s top picks to hit a home run on Saturday for MLB home run picks for online sports betting.

Buxton hit his 14th and 15th home runs of the season on Thursday, and at +350 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook, he’s a top play for MLB home run picks in MLB player props. You can use a BetMGM promo code to maximize your return as a new user as well. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 25.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 74 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, June 21:

Byron Buxton, Twins (+350)

Buxton has hit the ball hard of late with three multi-hit games over the past nine, including five home runs over that stretch. He has eight career home runs against the Brewers in 29 games. When the 2012 second-round pick by the Twins has been healthy, he has been productive. Despite playing in no more than 102 games in a single season over the past five years, he has hit 15 or more homers each year and has compiled 148 for his career.

“Buxton had four home runs in a three-game stretch before going homerless in yesterday’s game,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “He’s been crushing left-handed pitching this season, batting .326 with a 1.094 OPS. He’ll face lefty José Quintana today, a pitcher he’s seen a decent amount—going 5-for-20 with three extra-base hits in his career. We set the line at +314 for Buxton to homer, so there’s solid value at +350.” bet365 is offering the best odds at +350, and the current bet365 bonus code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.

Riley Greene, Tigers (+430)

Detroit left fielder Riley Greene has been on a tear over the last eight games, including four multi-hit performances. He homered twice in Friday’s series opener against Tampa Bay, and has driven in 15 runs over that stretch. In 75 games this season, Greene is batting .287 with 18 doubles, 17 homers and 59 RBI. The 2019 first-round pick of the Tigers has blistered Rays pitching. In 17 career games against Tampa Bay, he is hitting .262 with two doubles, five homers and 11 RBI.

“Greene is coming off a two-homer game in yesterday’s loss to the Rays and now has three multi-hit games over his last four. His success in Tampa’s park isn’t surprising given the favorable dimensions and weather—especially for left-handed batters,” Fetner said. “Greene is also from Orlando, so he’s likely playing in front of a big group of friends and family this weekend. He’s hitting .314 with 16 of his 17 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Our model loves Greene in this matchup and sets the line at +330 for him to go deep today.” FanDuel is offering the best odds on this play as well, with the best way of making this play being via a FanDuel promo code.

Manny Machado, Padres (+390)

Machado is starting to heat up with hits in eight of his past 10 games. He doubled and homered in Friday’s 6-5 loss to the Kansas City Royals. In 75 games this season, Machado is batting .311 with 20 doubles, 12 homers and 46 RBI. In 24 career games against Kansas City, the 2010 first-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles is batting .319 with eight doubles, eight homers and 20 RBI.

“This play is primarily based on Machado facing a left-handed pitcher,” Fetner said. “He has a .597 slugging percentage against lefties this season, with seven home runs in just 77 at-bats. Royals’ starter Noah Cameron has been very good to start his rookie campaign, but he’s still just a rookie. He’s allowed only seven hits in three road starts, but we expect some regression. While Cameron has been dominant against both sides of the plate, right-handed hitters have had slightly more success. We set the line at +370 for Machado to homer.”

Where to bet MLB props on Saturday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Saturday:

More MLB picks for Saturday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 166-93 roll (+1719) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Angelo Nagliocca is also 7-2 (+452) over his last nine MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Saturday.