Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez is closing in on 300 career home runs and is also in the hunt to win the National League home run crown in 2025. Suarez enters a Wednesday matchup the Blue Jays sitting on 297 homers for his career and his 21 home runs ranks third in the NL behind Shohei Ohtani (25) and Kyle Schwarber (22). Suarez has already homered six times in June and gone yard in three of his last five games, so we’re taking advantage of his hot bat in our MLB HR picks on Wednesday.
BetMGM is offering +300 on Suarez to go deep tonight in its latest MLB HR odds and new users can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 34.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 71 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, June 18:
Eugenio Suarez (+300)
Even at 33 years old and now in his 12th MLB season, Suarez has as lively of a bat as ever. His 90.9 mph average exit velocity is the second-best of his career and his 50.5% hard-hit contact rate is a career-high. 15 of his 21 home runs this season have been no-doubters (homers that would leave all 30 MLB ballparks) and he’s got a solid matchup on Wednesday in addition to being dialed in this season. BetMGM and DraftKings are both offering this price and you can also potentially add value with the latest DraftKings promo code.
“Suarez has struggled against left-handed pitchers compared to right-handed pitchers this season, but looking at his career numbers, that seems to be an irregularity. The model expects him to start hitting lefties as well as he has hit righties,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “The model also expects some regression from Eric Lauer, who has been strong this season, but in limited action. Lauer allowed over three HRs per nine innings in 2023 before spending the 2024 season in the KBO.”
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+420)
The model used Henderson in its MLB home run parlay yesterday and he came up empty, but he’s got another good matchup today and you’re getting an even better price. He has a .902 career OPS against right-handed pitching and 65 of his 77 career homers have come against righties. Henderson also has a 1.006 career OPS against the Rays and his eight home runs against them are tied for the most he’s hit against any team (Red Sox).
“Henderson has very favorable splits vs. RHPs, and he is facing a RHP in Taj Bradley that is coming off of two poor starts,” Fetner noted. “Henderson is 4-12 off of Bradley with a HR, so there is some familiarity in this matchup.” The model sets the line at +350 for Henderson to homer and we’re playing him at +400 in our MLB HR parlay on BetMGM. However, you can get +420 at FanDuel and also get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code.
Zachary Neto, Angels (+475)
The former first-round pick hit 23 home runs in a breakout season last year and he’s already hit 10 homers in 2025, though he’s only managed one so far this month. However, he’s still had six multi-hit games in June and he’s hammered left-handed pitching heading into a matchup with Yankees lefty Ryan Yarbrough.
“Neto’s power numbers have dropped after a hot start, but he is still piling up hits. In eight games when an opposing pitcher is left-handed, Neto has three home runs,” Fetner said. “The model set the line for Neto to homer at +405.” Once again, it’s BetMGM with the best price at +475 for this MLB home run prop.
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 164-87 roll (+2079.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bob Konarski is also 22-14-2 (+700) over his last 38 MLB picks, and you can catch all his latest picks here.
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