Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is a two-time MLB Home Run Derby winner, and the “Polar Bear” is enjoying his best statistical season since hitting 53 home runs as a rookie. He’s slashing .287/.376/.530 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI, and he leads the National League in doubles (24) through 87 games. It’s been 11 games since his last home run, but with his MLB home run odds ballooning to +340 at DraftKings, he’s one of the best values amongst our MLB HR picks. Also, check out picks for Astros vs. Rockies and Tigers vs. Nationals, and our top MLB prop picks for Thursday.
You can also score $150 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 bet with the latest DraftKings promo code, producing even more value for our Thursday MLB HR parlay. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 27.60 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 86 days after hitting at least one player in five of the last six days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 3:
Pete Alonso, Mets (+340)
He’s well-established as one of the biggest power threats in baseball and he’s a certified lefty masher historically. He homers once every 13.4 at-bats against them and he’ll match up with a lefty on Thursday.
“Alonso has only faced Quintana three times in his career, but he is 1-3 with a HR in those three ABs. Alonso has played with Quintana as a teammate, so he is plenty familiar with his arsenal,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Alonso has not homered in 11 games, so he is due to hit a long ball. While Alonso has been solid throughout his career against LHPs, he has struggled against lefties this season with just a .222 average and 3 home runs. We still like him in this spot due to his historical stats.”
Cam Smith, Astros (+520)
A focal point in the return for Kyle Tucker, the former first-round pick has multi-hit games in five of his last six outings. He’s 22 years old and it’s looking like a beach ball at the moment, so getting this price feels like a steal.
“Right-handed batters are hitting .340 with a .881 OPS against Kyle Freeland this season. At Coors, batters are hitting .387 with a .998 OPS against Freeland,” Fetner said. “The splits are in Smith’s favor, and we set his line at +475 to homer.” FanDuel is offering the best price here and you can also get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with this FanDuel promo code as a new user.
Rhys Hoskins, Brewers (+520)
Hoskins feels somewhat forgotten among this generation’s best power hitters, but he has at least 26 home runs in every season that he’s played at least 100 games. He’s sitting on 12 in 2025 but he has an incredible matchup today. He’s 7-for-16 with two home runs and three doubles off Peterson and eight of his 19 hits this year against lefties have gone for extra bases.
“Hoskins has always been good against left-handed pitchers, which his .890 career OPS against LHPs can attest for,” Fetner said. “We set Hoskins’ line at +450 to homer.” FanDuel is offering the best price here once again.
Where to bet MLB props on Thursday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Thursday:
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 173-103 roll (+1181) on MLB picks.
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