Even at 35 years old and in his 15th MLB season, Jose Altuve continues to prove any naysayers wrong with a respectable 17 home runs in 98 games played with an .806 OPS this year. Altuve is going up against a pitcher he has plenty of experience and success against, and due to that, he’s one of our top home run picks for Thursday. Altuve and the Astros are set to take on the Athletics on Thursday, who will send Luis Severino (3-11, 5.10 ERA) to the mound.
The latest MLB home run odds from BetMGM list Altuve at +675 to hit a home run, making him one of the best values in our MLB HR parlay. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can use the latest BetMGM promo code to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 49.7 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. You can also check out the top MLB player props and MLB longshot picks.
Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 24:
Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (+475)
After hitting 12 home runs in 106 games over his first two MLB seasons, Soderstrom is showcasing major league power this year with 18 home runs through 103 games, with the vast majority of them off right-handed pitchers. The left-handed hitting Soderstrom has 10 of his 18 home runs away from Sacramento, despite the Athletics playing in a smaller minor-league stadium this year, with two more home runs in nine fewer at-bats on the road. The Athletics play in Houston on Thursday.
“Soderstrom is usually a solid play against right-handed pitchers according to the model, and that’s the case again today,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “He’s hit 17 of his 18 home runs this season off righties. He faced Jason Alexander (the pitcher, not George Costanza) about a month ago and, while he didn’t record a hit, he put the ball in play all three at-bats—including a 110 mph exit velocity in his final plate appearance.” Soderstrom has +475 odds on bet365 to hit a home run on Thursday, and the latest bet365 bonus code gives new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+525)
Tatis Jr. hasn’t hit a home run in 10 games with just one home run over his last 24 contests, yet he still has 16 home runs on the season. Fetner knows Tatis is too good for this trend to continue much longer, and the model is showcasing strong value with Tatis Jr.’s odds increasing to +525 to go deep on Thursday. Tatis has hit more than 20 home runs in four of his five seasons, including 42 homers in 2021, and after making his third All-Star Game appearance this year, Fetner sees value in Tatis on Thursday, especially against Sonny Gray, who struggled in his last start.
“Despite the drought, he still has 16 home runs on the season, so the power is there,” Fetner said. “Gray gave up eight earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start, and right-handed bats have a .276 average and .771 OPS against him this season. This could be a great spot for Tatis to break out.” Bet Tatis Jr. to hit a home run with the latest FanDuel promo code, which offers new users $150 in bonus bets if their bet wins.
Jose Altuve, Astros (+675)
No player has more at-bats against the starting pitcher they are facing on Thursday than Altuve does against Athletics starter Luis Severino. The nine-time All-Star is 13-for-43 (.302) over his career with a home run against Severino, and another encouraging statistic is that he’s never walked against the RHP, so Altuve and Severino have always attacked one another. Altuve enters on a four-game hitting streak with four multi-hit contests over his last seven games, and Severino has a 5.10 ERA this season. Fetner especially loves the value BetMGM is offereing at +675 odds as a reason for this play on Thursday.
“Altuve has also been much better at home this season, hitting .316 with 10 home runs in 51 home games,” Fetner said. “The +675 line on BetMGM is excellent value, especially considering other books have him closer to +475. We set Altuve’s line at +550 to homer today.” The latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses. Check it out here.
Where to bet MLB props on Thursday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday:
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 60-50-1 roll (+1598) on MLB picks.
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