Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 20: Bryce Harper among best bets for Tuesday HR player props

Mookie Betts has four 30-homer seasons under his belt and is pacing for another after hitting two home runs on Monday. Betts has eight home runs on the season and will have another warm night with winds blowing straight out to center field to add to that total. The forecast calls for temperature in the mid-70s and steady 10 mph winds, yet you can still get Betts at +450 in the latest MLB home run odds from BetMGM.

There were six home runs hit at Dodger Stadium last night with a similar forecast, including Shohei Ohtani’s MLB-leading 17th. Ohtani is priced at +148 in the MLB home run props at FanDuel, but you might consider using your 50% profit boost to add him to your MLB HR bets on Dinger Tuesday or taking advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code for new users. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model is up 22.6 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 42 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday.

Best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, May 20:

• Fernando Tatis, Jr., Padres (+360)
• Bryce Harper, Phillies (+350)
• Matt Olson, Braves (+390)
• Parlay these picks for +8387 odds  

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+360)

FanDuel has the best price here for Tatis, meaning you’d also have the option to use the 50% profit boost for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday to bump the price to +540. That’s incredible value for a former National League home run champion (2021) who went yard in his last game on Sunday and has 12 homers for the season. Tatis also has a solid matchup on Tuesday night.

“Tatis tends to hit his HRs in bunches and has four HRs over his last eight games. Tatis has done almost all of his damage against RHPs, against whom he has a .339 batting average with 11 of his 12 HRs,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +275 for Tatis to hit a HR today.”

Bryce Harper, Phillies (+350)

Harper is a two-time NL MVP and eight-time all-star with 343 career home runs over 14 seasons and he has seven home runs on the season despite being homerless in his last nine games. However, he does have four multi-hit performances in his last six contests, so he’s seeing the ball relatively well right now and he’ll play in Coors Field on Tuesday night with the wind blowing from left to right — an advantage for left-handed sluggers like Harper.

“Lefties are hitting .396 against Antonio Senzatela this season, and while left-handed bats only have 1 of the 9 HRs that Senzatela has given up, that isn’t something to read too much into because he has given up similar HR numbers to both lefties and righties in his career,” Fetner said. “Harper is 5-15 with 2 HRs in his career vs. Senzatela, and we set his line at +330 to hit a HR today.” FanDuel is offering the best price on Harper to homer on Tuesday night.

Matt Olson, Braves (+390)

The 31-year-old first baseman led the MLB with 54 home runs in 2023 and he’s hit at least 29 big flies in each of his last six full seasons. He’s already gone yard nine times in 2025 and he has two homers in his last three games entering a series with the Nationals that begins tonight. He has a 1.007 career OPS at Nationals Park.

“Olson, despite being a lefty, has been better against LHPs over the last two seasons,” Fetner noted. “Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is a LHP who has been worse against lefties this season compared to righties.” The model sets Olson’s line at +360 tonight and the best price is being offered at BallyBet. However, you can still get value at +330 on DraftKings.

Where to bet MLB props on Tuesday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Tuesday:

More MLB picks for Tuesday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 112-59 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 30-20 over his last 50 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Tuesday.