The Texas Rangers are among the six teams in action during the Thursday MLB schedule, as they face the Seattle Mariners in the nightcap at 9:40 p.m. ET. Texas has three players with 15 home runs this season, including shortstop Corey Seager. The 31-year-old has five homers in July, with his most recent one coming last week against the Athletics. He is +400 to go yard in the MLB home run odds on Thursday, while Braves third baseman Austin Riley (+240) has the shortest odds of any player.
Seager is batting better than .320 with eight homers in his last 29 games, and he is one of the players that SportsLine’s model is targeting with its MLB home run bets. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins, and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 45.05 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 31:
Junior Caminero, Rays (+500)
Tampa Bay’s third baseman was a standout performer in the Home Run Derby during the All-Star weekend, and his momentum has carried over since then. Caminero has four homers in 12 games since the break, bringing him to 27 homers overall this season. He has hit 21 of his 27 long balls against right-handed pitchers, and he is playing in a homer-friendly park on Thursday afternoon.
“Caminero is worth a shot at +500 in a day where there’s only three games,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Caminero has been much better against RHPs this season, and while Marcus Stroman has been better in right on right matchups, he is allowing an .878 OPS at Yankee Stadium this season.” Multiple sportsbooks are offering this prop at +500, including DraftKings, where you can get $150 in bonus bets with your first wager of at least $5:
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+450)
Lowe is second behind Caminero in home runs this season for Tampa Bay, swatting 19 of them in 327 at-bats. He has four homers in his last 13 games, and he is coming off a two-hit performance against the Yankees on Wednesday. Lowe just returned from the IL and has hit 16 of his 19 homers against right-handed pitchers. He has a .297 batting average with an .881 OPS against righties, and he has a strong history of success in this particular matchup.
“Unlike Caminero, Lowe is quite familiar with Marcus Stroman. Lowe is 4-16 with a HR in his career against Stroman,” Fetner said. “Stroman is allowing lefties to hit .298 with a .925 OPS this season.” The model sets Lowe’s line at +380, so it’s a steal to find this price now at BetMGM.
Corey Seager, Rangers (+400)
Seager has already gone yard five times this month, so hitting another one on Thursday would be a perfect way to close July. He has struggled historically against Mariners starter George Kirby, but seven of the nine homers that Kirby has allowed this season have come against left-handed batters. Kirby is giving up a .789 OPS to lefties compared to .566 to righties, so the model sees value on Seager this time around.
“There likely aren’t many pitchers in the majors that Seager has had 13 ABs against and is hitless like the case with him against George Kirby,” Fetner said. “The good news is that Seager has just 2 Ks in those 13 ABs. Seager has posted 90+ mph exit velocities in 3 of his last 4 ABs against Kirby, so we are going with the he’s due approach.” FanDuel is offering the best price here with the model projecting Seager’s line at closer to +350.
Where to bet MLB props on Thursday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday:
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 70-61-1 roll (+1485) on MLB picks.
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