Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez are the only two players in Major League Baseball with 10 home runs on the season and both will be in action on Tuesday. Raleigh and the Mariners will match up with Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, while Suarez and the Diamondbacks will square off against Mets lefty David Peterson. The latest MLB home runs odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Suarez at +440 to hit a home run, while Raleigh’s priced at +300 in today’s MLB home run props.
So is either player worth adding to your MLB HR parlays or should pitching matchups and ballpark conditions lead you in a different direction? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets last Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 13 of the last 21 days and is up 34.6 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +16438 odds and would pay out $826.88 on a $5 bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals(+425)
After hitting 30 homers or more in back-to-back season, Witt only has two home runs so far in 2025. However, he is in the middle of a 19-game hitting streak where he’s 25-for-70 with nine doubles and it’s only a matter of time before he starts elevating those gappers and driving the ball out of the park. BetMGM has the best number for this prop and the model likes the matchup.
“Because Witt’s power numbers haven’t been there this season, you can get +425 on a premier hitter that is facing a pitcher in Taj Bradley that has struggled with giving up home runs at times,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +402 for Witt to hit a HR.”
William Contreras, Brewers (+500)
His exit velocity (88.1 mph) and hard-hit contact rate (37.2%) look extremely out of place when you consider the batted-ball numbers he’s put up over the last three seasons, so the model is banking on some positive regression here. After a disastrous start, he’s hit safely in 18 of his last 19 games and has a .310 average with all three of his home runs and all 16 of his RBI coming during that span.
“The White Sox are going with a bullpen game with Tyler Gilbert opening and Bryse Wilson following as the bulk reliever, but Wilson hasn’t gone more than 3 IP in his last six appearances. The White Sox going with a bullpen game is interesting considering their bullpen leads the league with 18 home runs allowed,” Fetner said. DraftKings and BetMGM have the best price for this MLB HR prop.
Riley Greene, Tigers (+560)
Highlight-reel home runs are great, but Greene’s two pokes on Monday night that barely cleared the wall count just the same. His first against Ronel Blanco in the fourth inning left the bat at 103.7 mph and traveled 363 feet while his second in the eighth inning off Kaleb Ort was hit 104.0 mph and went 358 feet. He’s now homered three times in his three games and the model sees tremendous value here, with FanDuel pricing him at +560 while BetMGM is offering +450 if you’re looking for the best odds in our MLB HR parlay.
“Greene has hit all six of his home runs this season against RHPs and has a .844 OPS against righties compared to a .474 OPS vs. lefties,” Fetner said. “Apparently Greene also likes night games better than day games and has a .972 OPS in night games compared to a .521 OPS in day games. We set the line at +400 for Greene to hit his fourth HR in four days.”
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 82-39 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 12-5 over his last 17 MLB run line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Tuesday.
Add Comment