Giants third baseman Matt Chapman might be best known for his defense as a five-time Gold Glove winner, but he’s also sitting on 198 career home runs during his nine-year MLB career. He’s well on his way to a sixth 20-homer season with 16 home runs in 88 games this season, and he’s been producing impactful contact all season. Chapman is 95th percentile among MLB hitters in average exit velocity (93.3 mph), and he has an exceptional feel for the strike zone, ranking 92nd percentile in both chase rate (20.0%) and walk rate (13.4%), which are all critical figures for MLB HR bettors.
Now he’ll enjoy a favorable matchup on Monday night against a starter coming off a nearly two-year layoff, yet you can still find him listed for as high as +500 in the MLB home run odds. That’s why he’s one of our top MLB HR picks for this evening with 13 games on the MLB schedule. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 55.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting four of its six HR bets on Saturday and Sunday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 4:
MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/4
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) +500, DraftKings
Witt didn’t connect for us yesterday, but this price is too good to pass up for one of MLB’s premier hitters. He’s 3-for-8 in his career against Brayan Bello, who’s been excellent lately but has shown vulnerability to the occasional long ball. We set Witt’s line around +400 to homer, making this a worthwhile longshot play at +500. You can bet this prop at DraftKings, where you can also get $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager:
Matt Chapman (SF) +500, FanDuel
Chapman is in a bit of a slump after finishing July on a tear, but the model likes his matchup today against Johan Oviedo, who’s making his season debut. It’s been nearly two years since Oviedo’s last start. Chapman has an .820 OPS in games where the opposing starter is a right-handed pitcher, compared to just .689 against lefties. We set Chapman’s line at +460 to homer, but you can find the listed price at FanDuel, where you can also sweeten the pot with the latest FanDuel promo code offering $150 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins:
Riley Greene (DET) +400, FanDuel
Greene didn’t record a hit in the Tigers’ series against the Phillies, but he made several highlight-reel defensive plays that should keep his confidence high. He’s hit 24 of his 26 home runs against right-handed pitchers and will be glad not to be facing Phillies’ lefties Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. We set Greene’s line at +260 to homer, but this listed price is once again available at FanDuel:
Where to bet MLB props on Monday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Monday:
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 78-68-1 roll (+1602) on MLB picks.
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