Health has historically been the only thing that could hold Giancarlo Stanton back from producing massive power numbers, and he’s proven in 2025 that he’s still a threat to go yard whenever he’s in the lineup. Stanton has 10 home runs in 39 games this season and enters a pivotal AL matchup on Sunday sitting on 439 home runs for his career. He has an .898 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and the Astros will send righty Jason Alexander to the bump for the 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch.
Alexander sports a 5.97 ERA on the season, and that’s a big reason why Stanton (+350 in the MLB home run odds) is one of our top MLB HR picks on Sunday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 55.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting two of its three MLB HR picks on Saturday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and see their top MLB props for Sunday here, along with game picks for Twins vs. Royals and Cardinals vs. Cubs.
Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 10:
MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/10
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (+350, BetMGM)
George Costanza bobble head night was two months ago at Yankee Stadium, but today would’ve been more fitting as the Yankees are facing Astros RHP Jason Alexander—sharing a name with the actor who played Costanza. Stanton has looked like his usual self since returning from injury, hitting 10 HRs in 39 games. Nine of those have come against right-handed pitchers, and all 10 have come in his last 28 games after a slow start. We have fair value here, setting Stanton’s line at +350 to homer—but we had to go with a Yankees hitter against Jason Alexander today. It’s BetMGM offering the best price here, and you can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
Shea Langeliers, Athletics (+400, bet365)
Langeliers is on a tear at the plate. He started the week with a five-hit, three-homer game and followed it up with a 3-for-4 performance yesterday that included a double and a home run. Over his last 10 games, he’s raised his batting average from .253 to .274. He’s crushing left-handed pitching this season, hitting .409 with a 1.085 OPS. On the road, he’s even better—batting .311 with a 1.049 OPS and 17 HRs in just 43 games. Cade Povich has struggled at home, allowing a .301 average and .944 OPS to opponents. We set Langeliers’ line at +350 to homer, but you can find this price at bet365 and also use the latest bet365 bonus code to get $150 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager:
Riley Greene, Tigers (+500, BetMGM)
Greene is due for a home run. He’s hit just one in his last 17 games, but today’s matchup is favorable. Greene has hit 24 of his 26 HRs this season against right-handed pitchers and owns a .919 OPS against them (compared to .580 vs. lefties). Jack Kochanowicz has allowed 17 HRs this season—14 of them to left-handed hitters, who also have an .879 OPS against him. We set Greene’s line at +314 to homer, making this a tremendous value with the listed price available at BetMGM:
Where to bet MLB props on Sunday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday:
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on an 87-80-1 roll (+1399) on MLB picks.
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