The New York Yankees have homered in every game this season, leading the major leagues with 23 heading into the Saturday MLB schedule. They have been a strong starting point when making MLB home run picks, with Aaron Judge blasting six homers to lead all players. Pirates starter Bailey Falter allowed 17 home runs in 28 starts last season and will try to tame New York’s lineup at 4:05 p.m. ET, and the Yankees are -155 favorite. The latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Judge at +175 to hit a long ball on Saturday.
Other players with short MLB home run odds on Saturday include Corey Seager (+265), Shohei Ohtani (+240) and Mike Trout (+320). With MLB HR props available for almost every player at in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Saturday. These three picks can be parlayed for +15931 odds and would pay out $801.55 on a $5 bet.
Kyle Schwarber HR (+360)
Schwarber is off to a scorching start this season, hitting home runs in four of his first seven games. He walked twice against the Dodgers on Friday after going yard against Colorado on Monday and Thursday. The 32-year-old hit safely in six straight games to open the campaign, and Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has a 5.79 ERA through his first two starts of the year.
“We set the line at +216 for Schwarber to homer today which is the second best of any player just behind Aaron Judge’s +191,” SportsLine data scientist Jacob Fetner said. FanDuel has the best price at +360.
Bryan Reynolds HR (+750)
Reynolds was held without a home run in his first seven games of the season, but he broke the drought with a long ball against the Yankees on Friday. He continues to play designated hitter while battling triceps soreness, which did not limit him from taking Max Fried deep in the third inning. Reynolds blasted 24 homers last season, and he has a favorable matchup on Saturday.
“Reynolds doesn’t have a HR off Marcus Stroman in his career, but he is 5/10 against him, so he sees the ball very well,” Fetner said. “We set the line closer to +550 for Reynolds to hit a HR, and the weather suggests today will be hitter friendly in Pittsburgh, while the model loves the matchup against Stroman who has been hit hard when he’s not on.”
Jose Ramirez HR (+500)
Ramirez put Cleveland on his back in an 8-6 win over the Angels on Thursday, snapping a three-game losing streak with a three-homer performance. The seven-time All-Star now has two three-home run games and 26 multi-homer outings in his career, with the latter stat tying the franchise record. He is facing Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, who allowed seven long balls in just 11 starts last season.
“We set the line at +280 for Ramirez to hit a HR coming off of a huge game yesterday. There’s something Ramirez likes about playing against the Angels in Anaheim, as he has 12 HRs in 26 career games there,” Fetner said.
Want more MLB picks for Saturday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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