Phillies vs. Giants on Monday features Kyle Schwarber and Wilmer Flores facing off, with the latter a surprising name to be coveted in MLB HR props. Flores has never hit more than 23 homers over his 13-year career and is at +575 at BetMGM Sportsbook to go yard, with Schwarber at +310. Other co-leaders in homers in action on Monday to utilize in MLB home run prop bets include the Yankees’ Aaron Judge at +200 and the Dodgers’ Tommy Edman at +875. Which sluggers should you use in Monday MLB home run picks?
There are 20 teams in action during the Monday MLB schedule, so there are a litany of options for your MLB home run bets. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Last week, it nailed a home run prop in 4 out of 6 days in which they were given out for a +7.5u week. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Monday. These three picks can be parlayed for +16202 odds and would pay out $810.10 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Shohei Ohtani (+300)
Ohtani hasn’t homered in five straight games, so you could say he’s due as you have to go back to May 2024 to find a stretch of longer than five games in which he didn’t hit a home run. The three-time MVP has just the Monday matchup that could break this slump as the Dodgers host the Rockies at 10:10 p.m. ET. Ohtani’s career batting average of .402 versus Colorado is his highest versus any team, so he’s seeing the ball well versus the Rockies.
You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model’s MLB score projections and props for every game on Monday, all from the simulation on a 34-19 roll.
Ohtani also has prior success versus probable starter, Antonio Senzatela, as Ohtani is 3 for 5 against the Colorado RHP. Senzatela (0-2, 5.14 ERA) allowed eight ER and two homers in his last start across just 4.1 innings pitched. BetMGM has the best available price here.
Bobby Witt Jr. HR (+450)
While Witt’s lone home run this season came on April 5, he’s hitting .385 since then, so he’s clearly getting good wood on the ball. He’s 2 for 3 in his career against Yankees’ starter, Carlos Carrasco, including a home run ahead of Monday’s showdown. Plus, Carrasco has been battered by opposing hitters thus far, as his 7.71 ERA ranks 141st among 147 pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. Also, just three AL teams have given up more home runs (18) than the Yankees this season, so Witt could find success even once Carrasco exits the mound.
“This line is much more favorable on FanDuel than every other book which has him around +350 consensus,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said.
You’ve seen the best MLB home run picks from the model. Now, see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 46-23 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 46-23 roll.
Jonathan Aranda HR (+680)
Aranda has reached base safely in six straight plate appearances entering Monday’s contest versus Boston, including hits in each of his last four at-bats. He has two home runs over his last seven games, and 12 of his career home runs have come against RHPs like Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Houck has given up twice as many HRs in his career to left-handed batters (24) like Aranda, compared to RHBs (12), despite facing righties more often. With this game taking place in sunny Tampa, Fetner also points out the favorable weather conditions boost Aranda’s home run chances.
“The weather forecast has the Home Run Index at an 8 out of 10, and we set Aranda’s line at +572 to hit a HR tonight,” stated Fetner. Some sportsbooks have this HR prop as low as +450, but FanDuel has the best odds at +680.
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