Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not hit a home run through his first 14 games of the season, but he will have another opportunity on Saturday against the Orioles. Guerrero had 30 homers last season and is batting .278 so far this season. He is listed at +600 to hit a home run on Saturday at DraftKings. Five players have already hit six homers in 2025, including Yankees star Aaron Judge, who has not left the yard since April 4.
Every team in the majors is in action during the Saturday MLB schedule, so there are plenty of ways to build MLB home run parlays. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It has correctly called a home run prop in four out of five days this week for a +10.5u return overall since Monday. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Saturday. These three picks can be parlayed for +21680 odds and would pay out $1,084 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Josh Naylor HR (+600)
Naylor hit his first home run of the season on Wednesday against Baltimore during a 3-for-4 day at the plate. He blasted 31 homers last season, and he has been ripping apart right-handed pitchers this year. This is a favorable matchup against a rookie pitcher who is making just the third start of his career.
“Brewers’ rookie Chad Patrick was somewhat home run prone in the minors, and he has given up 2 HRs in 11 IP to start his MLB career,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “Josh Naylor has 13 hits in 30 ABs against RHPs this season, and our model sets his line at +390 to hit a HR tonight against the rookie RHP.” You can find the best price for a Naylor home run today at FanDuel.
Francisco Lindor HR (+450)
Lindor is another player who hit his first long ball of the season earlier this week, going deep in the first inning of a 10-5 win over Miami on Tuesday. The veteran has hit safely in eight of his last nine games, and it is only a matter of time before his power is on full display. He had 33 home runs during the 2024 regular season before adding two more in the playoffs. FanDuel’s price is 25 cents better than the next-best book, making this a prop to target.
“Lindor has just 1 HR this season, so his power numbers are due to start increasing. The forecast indicates it should be more hitter friendly in Sacramento tonight, and we set the line around +350 for Lindor to homer,” Fetner said.
You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model’s MLB score projections and props for every game on Saturday, all from the model on a 34-19 roll.
Riley Greene HR (+525)
Greene had three home runs in a four-game stretch at the beginning of the month, but he has gone six straight games without a homer. The 24-year-old has hit 37 of his 43 career home runs against right-handed pitchers, and he is facing a struggling righty on Saturday. The model sets his home run line at +370, creating value at these odds.
“Greene is amidst a little slump after a strong start to the season, but he has a favorable matchup against a struggling Chris Paddack tonight. Paddack has given up 3 HRs in just 7.1 IP this season and has a near 15 ERA after two starts,” Fetner said.
You’ve seen the best MLB home run picks from the model. Now, see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 44-20 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 44-20 roll.
Add Comment