The fourth-seeded Maryland Terrapins battle the top-seeded Florida Gators in their West Region Sweet 16 matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Maryland is coming off a heart-stopping 72-71 win over Colorado State, while Florida went down to the wire to defeat two-time defending national champion UConn 77-75 on Sunday. The Terrapins (27-8), who are 46-29 in 31 NCAA Tournament appearances, are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016. The Gators (32-4), who are 50-22 in 25 tournament appearances, are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017.
Tipoff from Chase Center in San Francisco is set for 7:39 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 2-2 with Maryland posting a 70-68 in the last meeting on Dec. 12, 2021, in Brooklyn, N.Y. Florida is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Maryland vs. Florida odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 156.5. Before making any Florida vs. Maryland picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-168 roll (+1815) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Maryland vs. Florida and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Florida vs. Maryland:
- Florida vs. Maryland spread: Florida -6.5
- Florida vs. Maryland over/under: 156.5 points
- Florida vs. Maryland money line: Florida -291, Maryland +233
- MD: The Terrapins have hit the money line in 25 of their last 33 games (+13.95 units)
- FLA: The Gators have covered the spread in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.20 units)
- Florida vs. Maryland picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Florida can cover
Senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. has been on a tear of late, reaching 22 or more points in each of the last four games. In Sunday’s win over UConn, he finished with 23 points and three rebounds to rally the Gators back from a second-half deficit. He had 23 points, five rebounds and two assists in the 95-69 win over Norfolk State in the first round. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 17.9 points, 4.2 assists and 3.8 rebounds in 32.4 minutes.
Also powering the Florida attack is senior guard Alijah Martin. The transfer from Florida Atlantic has been instrumental in the Gators’ tournament success, pouring in 18 points, grabbing four rebounds and dishing out three assists in Sunday’s win over UConn. He had 17 points, two assists and two rebounds in the win over Norfolk State. In 34 games this season, including 32 starts, he is averaging 14.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals in 30 minutes. See which team to pick here.
Why Maryland can cover
Freshman center Derik Queen, whose buzzer-beater sent the Terrapins to the Sweet 16, helps power the offense. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 16.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals in 30.3 minutes. He poured in 17 points with six rebounds and two blocks in Sunday’s win over Colorado State. He scored 12 points and grabbed 15 boards in the 81-49 first-round win over Grand Canyon on Friday.
Junior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie has reached double-digit scoring in each of the past five games. In an 81-80 Big Ten Tournament semifinal loss to Michigan, he registered a near double-double with 10 points, nine assists and two rebounds. He had 16 points in the first round against Grand Canyon. In 35 games, all starts, the Belmont transfer is averaging 14.6 points, five assists, 2.8 rebounds and 1.9 steals in 31.6 minutes. See which team to pick here.
How to make Maryland vs. Florida picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 151 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only get the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Florida vs. Maryland, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Maryland vs. Florida spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned nearly $1,900 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.
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