You’ve probably heard that the quarterback position is deep this year. Maybe you’ve heard that every year for the last 10 years.
What truly drives that statement is the supply and demand for the position in one-quarterback leagues. Fantasy nerds analysts always think you can wait on a quarterback because there are 32 NFL starters and more than half figure to be acceptable in Fantasy lineups. And because most Fantasy leagues are made up of 12 or fewer teams and most of them start just one quarterback, the demand to take one is cooled because so many good ones exist.
So, there are two questions you must answer before you draft. Here’s the first one:
How many quarterbacks do I think have the upside of, say, 24 Fantasy points per game in a six-point-per-TD league and 20 per game in a four-point-per-TD league?
The more names you look at and accept as having that high upside, the more likely you’ll wait to take a quarterback.
I believe there are strictly five quarterbacks who can get there: Josh Allen (who’s been over 24 Fantasy points per game five straight years), Lamar Jackson (once in his last four seasons, but his upside is undeniable), Jayden Daniels (hit 23.9 as a rookie but it includes a game he left early, and like Jackson, his upside is undeniable), Joe Burrow (two of the past three seasons) and Jalen Hurts (once in his past four seasons but was within 0.6 points per game in both 2023 and 2024).
Your number might be larger, namely if you include Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, and/or Dak Prescott. Or someone else I haven’t mentioned, I don’t have all day to list names.
That’s the first question; here’s the second:
How badly do I want one of those quarterbacks?
The fewer quarterbacks you love, the more likely you’ll target one early. However, the overall strategy I’d suggest is to be open to taking any quarterback as long as it’s at least a fair value. Don’t try to steal one, definitely don’t reach for one (I’m talking to you, guy who takes QBs in Round 1 every year), just take one the first time one’s available at your pick and you think to yourself anything from “this is a fair deal” to “OMG I am crushing it.”
The easy way to know if you’re getting a fair deal would be taking a quarterback when there isn’t a rusher or pass-catcher you’d rather have. Getting a QB past his average draft position would be icing on the cake.
What to look for in a quarterback
When considering a quarterback, don’t just think about arm, think about legs too. You should target:
- A QB who will run (rushing stats are a massive difference-maker for a QB)
- A QB with at least two good pass-catchers
- A QB with demonstrated accuracy to all areas of the field
- A QB without a disastrous offensive line
- A QB in a pass-friendly offense
- A QB who you believe can give you 22-plus points in six-point TD leagues and 18-plus in four-point TD leagues
Admittedly, it’s hard to find all of those things in a quarterback, but the more of those traits you can check off the list, the more likely you’ll have a good Fantasy quarterback. This is also a good list to remember when you’re looking at quarterbacks in Round 7-plus.
How bad of an idea is it to take a QB in Round 1 or 2?
Only those Fantasy managers who put quarterbacks on a pedestal will purposely aim for one with a pick in the first two rounds. I won’t call that a mistake, but taking a quarterback early does narrow your options at other positions — league mates will swipe up top-tier RBs, WRs, and TEs while you take a quarterback. And then they’ll go bargain hunting at quarterback later while you’re choosing among lesser talents to start for your team at those other positions.
I would be more open to taking a quarterback early if it’s a smaller league (10 or fewer teams), since that gap in non-QB talent is smaller on Draft Day.
In Superflex/two-QB leagues: The game changes, and you should be willing to take a top-tier QB in Round 1, and as soon as first overall. You might find more managers willing to wait until Round 2 to get their first quarterback this summer, which is fine if you’re picking toward the back of Round 1. I do think there will be some solid QB values in Rounds 3 and 4 in that specific format.
Is there a sweet spot to take a quarterback?
Not that their average draft positions will back me up on this, but targeting Burrow and Hurts does give you the best of both worlds: You’ll get a top-tier quarterback with high potential, and you won’t pay the maximum price for a quarterback. They should routinely be available after Allen, Jackson, and (usually) Daniels.
A couple of caveats: One, you’re still probably going to pay a premium for them, just not as steep of a premium as the others. Two, Hurts will be more valuable in four-point-per-TD leagues than Burrow because of his rushing talent.
Lastly, if you believe Mahomes (or anyone else) is at this same level, then that’s the sweet spot to go get because those passers will get taken at least a full round after the consensus top-five. Not a bad deal specifically for a big-time talent like Mahomes, who did average 24 Fantasy points per game in his last 10 regular-season games.
How bad of an idea is it to purposely wait a while for a QB?
The only error here is automatically passing up value. If Burrow is sitting there in Round 5 and you pass on him because you insist on waiting, you’re foolish. You’re helping someone else in your league. You’re a knucklehead. You cannot pass up good value in drafts or auctions, regardless of position.
But a lot of value-chasing drafters will tend to take their time to draft a quarterback, assuming that the drop-off from the elite QBs to the second-through-fourth-tier QBs isn’t as steep as it is at other positions. And they’re right.
Just be sure you’re okay with the quarterbacks behind Burrow, Hurts, and Mahomes. That group is probably the group you’ll pick from.
In Superflex/two-QB leagues: It’s a bad idea to wait to get both starting quarterbacks. You could wait a little bit on one starter, but don’t do both. And if you do wait to get one starter, draft two so you at least have some options and potential trade capital.
Oopsie, I waited way too long for a QB. Now what?
You should always find at least one decent-enough starter off waivers in one-QB leagues. But that’s for after Draft Day — on Draft Day, you could simply pick a quarterback with one of your last five picks who has a favorable early-season schedule. You’ll take a shot on a passer who can get you through a few games before considering a replacement, and maybe that quarterback could end up being the Sam Darnold of your league, and he becomes a must-starter. It’s not crazy, it happens every year.
Here’s a quick rank list of the quarterbacks you’ll find after Round 10 based solely on their Fantasy Strength of Schedule for the first four weeks of the season. I’ve included their consensus season-long ranking for context — the higher the consensus number, the longer you could probably wait to draft him.
More questions, more answers
Should you draft two quarterbacks if you can only start one? I don’t mind it, but I almost never do it, largely because I can use a QB on waivers as a backup in case my starter is out. I will make exceptions for quarterbacks I can draft late who have ridiculous upside (Lawrence, Maye come to mind), and I would say it’s far more likely I take a second quarterback if I have seven-plus bench spots. But as a rule, I’d probably prefer to take two tight ends or an extra running back than a quarterback.
What changes in a four-point-per-TD league? Quarterbacks who don’t get any rushing numbers fall farther down the draft board. You’ll see Hurts over Burrow, Fields and Murray over Prescott and Nix, and Maye as a borderline top-10 quarterback. It just makes sense because their rushing touchdowns are more valuable than their passing touchdowns.
What if it’s a league of 14 or more teams? I get the urge to try and have a difference-maker at quarterback in the larger format, but I still wouldn’t reach for a passer because there will be so many options later on. I’d much rather target a tight end sooner.
What if I have more questions? You can always reach out on X (@daverichard) or drop the Fantasy Football Today Podcast a line (fantasyfootball@cbsi.com). Our rankings are updated daily and can always be found here.
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