Fantasy Football 2025: Potential for a Zay Flowers’ breakout season, and why opportunities may be limited

Ravens third-year receiver Zay Flowers is an incredible receiver. But you wouldn’t know it by his stats.

The 5-foot-9, 175-pounder is a tough cover because he’s lightning quick both in terms of straight-line speed and his cuts. His presence compels defenses to play more zone coverage against Baltimore — specifically, 65.5% when he’s on the field versus 50.9% when he’s not. He’s got some drops on his record, but he’s not even close to having the highest drop rate on the Ravens, much less among NFL receivers.

However, there’s nothing Flowers can do about the opportunities he’ll get with the Ravens. They’re a team that’s been as run-heavy as any in football, a factor that all but guarantees he won’t hit his statistical upside. We’ve seen it since he’s never been better than 12.9 PPR points per game in a season.

It’s why Fantasy Football managers shouldn’t get excited about a potential third-year breakout from Flowers.

The Ravens are a run-first team

How run-focused is Baltimore? Save for one season since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback, the Ravens have had an annual pass rate of under 51% with 29.1 or fewer pass attempts per game.

This includes the past two seasons for the Ravens under the playcalling of current offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Adding Derrick Henry at running back in 2024 only furthered the tendency. We’re coming off an NFL season when teams threw fewer times than in previous seasons, and the Ravens still averaged 4.6 fewer pass attempts per game than the average NFL squad.

The problem with throwing less

In the last decade, only four qualifying wide receivers (50-plus targets in a season) have finished top-12 in PPR points per game on teams that threw 31.0 or fewer passes per game. Only eighteen wide receivers (fewer than two per year on average) have finished top-24 in PPR points per game on teams with the same low pass rate — and only eight of those 18 had 16-plus PPR points per game. This includes Deebo Samuel’s outstanding 2021 and 2023 seasons, when he had at least five rushing touchdowns in each.

It’s simple math: The less a team throws, the fewer chances a receiver has to catch the ball, run for yards, and score touchdowns. We’ve seen Flowers’ numbers suffer under these circumstances for two seasons — why should we expect it to suddenly change in his third?

What it would take to change?

Monken spoke earlier this offseason about getting Flowers the ball more, adding that his versatility will help him “take another leap” after a Pro Bowl season. Flowers’ first day of training camp practice seemed to solidify Monken’s words as the speedster dominated the practice not only in terms of explosiveness, but in touches. More reports of that, especially in pads against other defenses, would be nice to see.

However, the bigger barriers facing Flowers involve teammates Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews.

Henry is obvious — he’s the heartbeat of the run game and the guy who sucks up all the touches inside the 5-yard line (Flowers had zero targets from that close last year). There’s no reason to believe Henry is going to regress or get hurt this season, giving the Ravens all the confidence they need to stay run-dominant.

Andrews is a different story. Whenever Flowers has had multi-week spans of quality production, Andrews has either been off the field (like in the final five games of 2023 when Flowers averaged a ridiculous 17.3 PPR points per game) or limited (like in the first nine weeks of 2024 when Flowers averaged 14.9 PPR points per game and Andrews had 3.2 targets per). If the Ravens make the specific decision to feature Andrews less and Flowers more, then Flowers will have a pathway to his best year yet. But such a decision would not only come at the expense of Andrews but also potential breakout candidate Isaiah Likely and veteran newcomer DeAndre Hopkins, as well as wideout Rashod Bateman.

“I’d rather have too much talent, try to figure out how to manage it [and] how to have everybody embrace their role than not have enough [talent],” Monken said this offseason. “… I don’t really see ‘D-Hop’ as a third receiver. I see him more as [that] we have three starters at wide receiver, but we also have the two tight ends. It’ll be interesting as we get going.”

Some offenses can feed multiple pass-catchers. The Ravens, historically, haven’t been one of them. They’ve ultimately been toughest on wide receivers: Zero WRs have averaged 15-plus PPR points in the Lamar Jackson era, and only one has averaged more than 13 PPR points (Marquise Brown in 2021, on 9.1 targets per game). And just four times since the Ravens came into existence in 1996 has a receiver of theirs averaged at least 15 PPR points.

To call Flowers a bust, a let-down, or a player to have low expectations for is awful. It’s done with reluctance because he is an awesome talent. This isn’t on him. He’s not to blame for not getting the opportunities we want him to have. He’s simply the right receiver, on the wrong team, at the wrong time.