Fantasy basketball rankings, picks 2025: Top sleepers, breakouts, busts at current ADP

There was heavy movement in the NBA offseason, particularly in the frontcourt, with old faces in new places. Kevin Durant, Myles Turner, Kristaps Porzingis and Michael Porter Jr. were among those on the move, which should affect one’s 2025 Fantasy basketball strategy. Players on the move often have their stats either increase or decrease compared to team holdovers, who have less variance year over year. Thus, there’s just as good a chance that any of them end up as a Fantasy basketball sleeper as there is they end up a Fantasy basketball 2025 bust.

Paul George was one of the latter last year, while Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Giddey excelled in new locations. In addition to projecting busts and sleepers, you also have to be aware of which up-and-comers could emerge as 2025 Fantasy basketball breakouts before going on the clock. Before making any 2025-26 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

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SportsLine’s proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. 

Last year the model called a breakout season for Stephon Castle, predicting that he would finish 25 spots ahead of consensus ADP at his position. The result: Castle won NBA Rookie of the year honors after averaging 14.7 points, 4.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game and finished as the No. 51 guard in average Fantasy points per game. The model also nailed James Harden as a sleeper last year before he put together his first All-Star season in three years and called Paolo Banchero’s and Victor Wembanyama’s breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors as well.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2025-26, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2025-26 Fantasy basketball rankings. 

Top 2025 Fantasy basketball sleepers 

One of the top 2025 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Milwaukee Bucks guard Kevin Porter Jr., who is barely being picked in the top 100 picks in many drafts. Despite struggling from deep through the first 45 games of last season with the Los Angeles Clippers, he turned things around in a big way once he was acquired by the Bucks. He finished the regular season connecting on 40.8% of his 3-pointers in his final 30 games with Milwaukee, averaging 11.7 points per game.

In the postseason, he continued to light it up from deep, hitting on 46.7% of his 3-pointers, averaging 11.2 points in five games. Porter is expected to be the Bucks’ starting point guard, and is just one of two players on the 2025-26 roster to average 2.9 assists or more. For his career, Porter has averaged 4.6 assists per game. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2025 here.

Top 2025 Fantasy basketball breakouts 

One of the 2025 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Jazz point guard Isaiah Collier. The former No. 1 overall recruit was the penultimate pick in the first round of last year’s draft and began his rookie year as a reserve. He quickly ascended to the starting point guard position and upped his scoring average over each of the last four months of the season. He also averaged 6.3 assists for the season, which was 16th in the NBA as he was the only first-year player to rank in the top 50 in assists.

Coming off a franchise-worst 65-loss season, Utah is clearly in its rebuilding phase, and Collier is one of the cornerstones of that effort. Thus, he will be given lots of court time to establish himself as, potentially, Utah’s point guard of both the present and the future. Add in that he plays for a Jazz team which loves to get up and down the court — ranking fifth in pace last year — and Collier is poised to pile up stats and make a name for himself this season. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2025 here.

Top 2025 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Pelicans guard Jordan Poole as a Fantasy basketball bust. Poole was acquired by the New Orleans Pelicans from the Washington Wizards during the offseason. Despite his somewhat lofty numbers, he finds himself in a situation where he needs to be a complementary piece to Zion Williamson. He also may have to take a lesser role behind New Orleans’ two lottery picks in Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears. If they emerge in their rookie seasons, Poole could definitely see his production go down.

Poole is being picked in the seventh round, according to the latest ADP, but he may not be worth taking. In fact, SportsLine’s model has players such as Jrue Holiday and Immanuel Quickly, both of whom are projected by many to be picked later, as better values. Avoid these 2025 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2025-26 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising forward you aren’t even thinking about being taken in the early rounds of 2025 Fantasy basketball drafts. This player is a top-3 Fantasy option at his position and is ranked ahead of stars like Kevin Durant and Paolo Banchero. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2025-26 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which forward shocks the NBA as a top-3 player in positional rankings? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025-26 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that’s nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.