It’s been a nightmare start to the season for the Orioles, who fell to 13-20, last place in the AL East, after Sunday’s loss to the Royals. Despite that, it took until multiple players got hurt for the Orioles to call top prospect Coby Mayo up. Which kind of makes it feel like the team has soured on him at this point in his development.
Mayo was supposed to be the next Next Big Thing for the Orioles, a top prospect to follow in Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg’s footsteps to become a cornerstone for the franchise, but his ascension to that point has been a lot slower and a lot bumpier than it was for most of the team’s previous top prospects. Despite reaching Triple-A back in 2023 and consistently performing at a well-above average clip at that level, the Orioles have been slow to promote Mayo, and when he did get a chance last season, he hardly covered himself in glory, hitting .098/.196/.098 with a 48% strikeout rate in 17 games.
And then this spring, it felt like Mayo basically had no chance to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster – something Mayo was publicly frustrated with. He went down and did what he always does – hit, with a .252/.346/.523 line and 21.3% strikeout rate – but it took an injury to Ramon Urias for the Orioles to finally call him up. Ramon Urias, of course, was only in the lineup when he was because Westburg was already hurt, and the Orioles notably didn’t respond to that initial injury by promoting Mayo.
Again, it doesn’t sound like Mayo has the organization’s trust, fairly or not. So he’s going to have to hit and hit a lot right away to have a chance to hang around. The Orioles are surely hoping he does just that, though even if Mayo goes out and homers five times in 10 games, would that be enough to convince them to trust him as an everyday player at the MLB level? I’m not so sure, unfortunately, though with a team that is clearly desperate to have something — anything! — go right, I have to think Mayo ultimately holds his destiny in his own hands.
Now he’s just gotta hit. He’s done it at every level except MLB, and I still think there’s plenty of potential here. I don’t want to blow my FAB budget on adding Mayo, knowing he could be back in Triple-A in a matter of days. But this is still one of the best power-hitting prospects in baseball, and someone worth adding in all leagues. Just in case.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add on waivers ahead of Week 5:
Week 7 Waiver Targets
Catchers
Ivan Herrera, Cardinals (63%) – The first thing you need to do is make sure Herrera isn’t available in your league. Yes, even in one-catcher leagues, I’d try to make sure he’s on my team, because he has top-five upside at the position and was showing it before his knee injury – after he flashed that kind of upside last season. Herrera might even have “best hitting catcher in baseball” upside.
Tyler Stephenson, Reds (56%) – If Herrera isn’t available in your league and you need a catcher, Stephenson is a fine option. Not as exciting as Herrera, but he has a high floor thanks to the occasional 1B/DH start and should pace out to 20 homers without killing your batting average now that he’s back.
Deep-league target: Edgar Quero, White Sox (18%) – I’m a little surprised at how slow Fantasy players have been to embrace Quero. He doesn’t have the five-category potential of someone like Agustin Ramirez, but he’s a comparable prospect who has shown no signs of being overmatched in his first taste of the majors, hitting .326 with more walks than strikeouts in his first 15 games. There’s limited over-the-fence power and he’s on a bad team, but I’m not sure there’s much difference between Quero and someone like Gabriel Moreno or Keibert Ruiz already.
First Base
Rhys Hoskins, Brewers (58%) – It took Hoskins a while to get going, but he’s pretty locked in right now. In 16 games since he hit his first homer, Hoskins is hitting .340/.450/.600 with four homers and just an 18.3% strikeout rate. And his underlying numbers suggest it isn’t a fluke, with his xBA up to .265 on the strength of a better than 2 mph jump in average exit velocity from last season. Hoskins sure looks a lot healthier than he did last season, when he was coming back from a torn ACL.
Deep-league target: Spencer Horwitz, Pirates (10%) – Horwitz has been out on his minor-league rehab assignment for a week now, so he’s probably getting pretty close to returning from wrist surgery. I’d guess there will be at least another week, but he’ll be back soon enough that adding Horwitz in deeper leagues makes sense – he probably won’t play much against lefties, but Horwitz should nonetheless be a key part of the Pirates lineup once he’s back.
Second base
Zack Gelof, Athletics (44%) – Gelof is working his way back from his fractured hamate bone, and it looks like he’s going to have his lineup spot waiting for him with Athletics’ second basemen hitting just .214/.273/.376 on the season. That’s actually not any worse than what Gelof managed last season, but the A’s surely believe he is capable of more. It might be tough for him to get there coming off this injury, but if Gelof can just make a bit more contact, he could be a very useful Fantasy option still.
Deep-league target: Hye Seong Kim, Dodgers (17%) – I’m not sure I buy Kim as a Fantasy force. His stint at Triple-A went well – .252/.328/.470 with five homers and 13 steals in 28 games – but there was a bit too much swing and miss for someone with really limited pop (30.2% hard-hit rate, 87.3 mph average exit velocity). Still, he’s a talented young player with plenty of positional versatility who could carve out a role in a very good Dodgers lineup, so if we’re chasing upside and want a cheap bite at it, I don’t mind throwing a few FAB bucks at Kim just in case.
Third base
Connor Norby, Marlins (40%) – Norby hasn’t been great so far. He looks like someone whose spring was disrupted by an oblique injury he may still not be totally past yet. Despite that, he has already scored 11 runs with two steals in 15 games, so he’s finding ways to contribute when his bat isn’t working yet. Better days are coming for Norby.
Deep-league target: Brooks Lee, Twins (22%) – Lee has always had strong contact skills and fairly limited power, but he’s showing some real signs of growth with the latter skill if you can look past the fairly middling surface-level numbers. He has nearly doubled his hard-hit rate from last season, from 24.5% to 47.2%, with his average exit velocity jumping from 85.8 to 90.3 mph. I don’t think Lee is likely to be a great power hitter, but even average would work given how much contact he makes, and his .264 xBA and .473 xSLG would definitely work. If you’re looking for some upside on the wire, Lee makes sense as both a shortstop or third base target.
Shortstop
Jordan Lawler, Diamondbacks (44%) – Lawlar remains one of the top players to stash in the minors, and at some point, they have to find a spot in the lineup for him, right? The fact that they didn’t do that when Ketel Marte went on the IL makes it hard to believe it’s on the verge of happening, but Lawlar is producing so well in Triple-A that something’s gotta give at some point – he has hit .369/.454/.664 in his first extended taste of Triple-A, by the way. Life finds a way, right?
Deep-league targets: Chase Meidroth, White Sox (14%) – I still don’t think there’s enough pop here for Meidroth to matter in most leagues. But his strong approach at the plate has predictably led to a solid .275 batting average and a massive walk rate, giving him the potential for some cheap runs and steals. It’s a bad lineup, and it’s probably more like a 20-steal ceiling, but in deeper category leagues, that would be worth a spot in your lineup.
Outfield
Kyle Stowers, Marlins (50%) – The Marlins have a whole bunch of similar-ish Quad-A corner bat types, and Stowers might be the best of them. Stowers – a career .870 OPS bat in Triple-A – homered twice Saturday and now has a .928 OPS for the season. And while I don’t buy that he’s actually anywhere near that good, his underlying numbers do actually back it up – his .408 expected wOBA is actually right in line with his .407 actual mark. He hits the ball hard (91.3 mph average exit velocity) and hits both plenty of line drives and batted balls in the air to the pull side, which is exactly what we want to see. I suspect it’ll fall apart before long, but the Marlins are going to keep Stowers in the middle of their lineup, and he’s looked up to it so far.
Joshua Lowe, Rays (66%) – Lowe’s rehab was delayed this weekend due to some back issues, which is making it feel like this might be another season absolutely ruined by injuries – he was already on the IL for an oblique issue. If he can get back on the field soon and get past these issues, Lowe has plenty of potential as a power/speed threat, even if I don’t think he’ll ever hit like he did in 2023 again.
Trent Grisham, Yankees (44%) – I don’t know where this has come from. Grisham has always had strong tools, but has been held back by a poor approach, and that just hasn’t been an issue so far. His strikeout rate is down to 19.8%, significantly lower than ever before, and while he’s still a bit too flyball oriented, that has manifested in more line drives in the early going, which should keep the batting average a bit higher. Grisham isn’t an everyday player, but with how well he’s hitting right now, that might not matter so much. Just like he’s forced the Yankees into playing him more consistently, he’s forcing Fantasy players to take him more seriously than expected.
Javier Baez, Tigers (25%) – Everything about this is probably a surprise. “Javier Baez is Fantasy relevant again in 2025 … as an outfielder?” I’m skeptical, too, but he’s showing signs of life here – both as a defender, where he actually looks like a decent fit in center field – and, more importantly, as a hitter. Baez has homered in three straight games and has 10 hits in his past six starts. It’s an awfully small sample size, and Baez’s underlying data is still pretty rough, so I’m not ready to declare him back. But if you’re desperate for an outfielder in deeper leagues, he could help.
Starting pitcher
Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers (73%) – Sure, it was against the Marlins. But lots of pitchers have faced the Marlins and failed to strike out nine in six innings – and most one-start wonders don’t have a four-year track record where they posted a 2.51 ERA (3.45 FIP) and 0.99 WHIP, as Gonsolin did from 2019 through 2022. He looked healthy and effective in his first start back, and that’s enough to buy back in on a guy who was definitely a must-roster player before 2023.
Grant Holmes, Braves (72%) – It’s been a frustrating start to the season for Holmes, whose command has waxed and waned through his six starts. But the upside he has flashed has been enough to buy in, especially coming off his best start of the season, a nine-strikeout effort against the Dodgers of all teams this weekend. Holmes has struggled with his four-seamer especially, but he leaned on his cutter more in his most recent start and that seemed to help – anything to get him into more counts where he can do damage with his slider and curveball. Holmes isn’t near “must-start” territory, but I do think he should be rostered in basically every league.
Lucas Giolito, Red Sox (62%) – Giolito didn’t look quite like himself in his return from elbow surgery. He lowered his arm slot and leaned almost exclusively on his four-seamer and changeup, as he threw his slider just five times in his first start back – he threw it 28% of the time in 2023, by comparison. Some pitchers don’t get the feel for their slider’s back after elbow surgery, so that’s something to keep an eye on with Giolito, who leaned heavily on that pitch for swings and misses before his injury. It was a solid enough debut that I’m willing to add him, but he is a lower priority than Gonsolin or Holmes for me.
Gunnar Hoglund, Athletics (24%) – The key question for Hoglund after his MLB debut is how legit was the fastball? He got three of his seven strikeouts with it while generating a bunch of whiffs and weak contact – a notable exception here being the home run he allowed – and if that can be a real weapon for him, there’s a lot to like about this profile. It’s hard to have a very good fastball that sits at 93.6 mph, of course, and the “it was the Marlins” excuse makes a lot more sense here than it does with Gonsolin, given his track record of success at the MLB level. But Hoglund does have some of the characteristics you’re looking for to help a fastball play up – lots of vertical rise and good extension that should make it play up at the top of the zone – and his changeup looked great. The lack of a good breaking ball could prove troublesome if he doesn’t improve there, but I’m willing to add Hoglund and see what the next few starts look like.
Tyler Anderson, Angels (39%) – We know what Anderson is at this point. When he’s on, he can be extremely effective with his changeup-first approach, and he’s extremely on right now. It won’t last forever – we know that, too – but with two starts on the way this week, I don’t mind using him as a streamer, with the knowledge that this might be the only week you use Anderson if it goes wrong.
Relief pitcher
Ben Casparius, Dodgers (18%) – Casparius will pitch Monday in a bulk role – possibly as a starter – and he gets the Marlins, which is a nice way to open the week. After that, it’s not clear when Casparius will get used, and it’s safe to assume he won’t go six-plus innings, given how he has been used so far – no more than 3.2 innings in any outing to date. But if Casparius could give us five strong innings against Miami in this one (with a decent chance for a win) and then makes another relief appearance later in the week, that could be plenty useful. And if he takes advantage of his opportunity, maybe the Dodgers will give Casparius a longer look in the rotation. Given how good he’s been in a relief role this season – 2.91 ERA, 2.43 xERA, 27.1% strikeout rate – Casparius is hinting at some upside here.
Shelby Miller, Yankees (22%) – I think in the long run, Kevin Ginkel might be the ninth-inning option as long as Justin Martinez (shoulder) is out, but he might need Miller to lose the job first. Maybe his struggles Sunday (two runs on four hits against the Phillies) will be enough to give Ginkel the job – though Ginkel gave up a run as well Sunday and hasn’t been great since returning from his own shoulder injury, so I think you’ll be safe to get some saves from Miller in the short run at least.
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