Prospect development isn’t linear.
We usually say that about guys who struggle before figuring it out, like Nick Kurtz seems to be in the process of doing. But it works the other way, too – sometimes prospects look like they’re taking the league by storm before the adjustments catch up to them. But it’s just as true when that happens, too.
Kristian Campbell is set to be optioned to Triple-A Friday, and it’s hard to argue against that decision. Campbell got off to a strong start, but has been hitting .159/.243/.222 since May 1, an untenable mark for a Red Sox team that (Rafael Devers trade aside) still has designs on a playoff run.
Just like Campbell’s excellent first month didn’t mean he was immediately a superstar forever, neither do his struggles and demotion mean he won’t be a star in the future. I’ll still bet on Campbell figuring it out in the long run and will hope it’s not a lengthy stay in the minors. Let him get some reps with lower stakes, including at first base, which is the most obvious spot for him to play if and when he gets back.
We haven’t heard the last of Campbell this season, and I’m going to try to stash him where I can. Here’s what else you need to know about from Wednesday’s action around MLB:
Friday’s waiver-wire targets
Jacob Lopez, SP, Athletics (6%) – With nine strikeouts in consecutive games, it’s time to start taking Lopez more seriously. He struck out nine in six shutout innings last week against the Royals and then came back Thursday against the Astros with nine more in six innings while allowing one run on four hits and three walks. Lopez led with his changeup, and it was awesome in this one, generating 11 whiffs on 22 swings, a massive rate. But it wasn’t just the changeup he had working in this one, as he added five whiffs with his slider and four with the four-seamer, and while his cutter only generated one swinging strike, he allowed just one batted ball with an average exit velocity of 78.3 mph with hit, to go along with four harmless fouls. That’s a pretty awesome showing, and Lopez is now up to 32 strikeouts to just seven walks in 20.1 innings of work in the month of June. Lopez sits in the low-90s with his heater, so skepticism is reasonable, but the results lately have been good enough that I think it’s worth adding him just in case this is for real.
Edward Cabrera, SP, Marlins (30%) –The Marlins continue to have a quick hook with Cabrera, who threw just 82 pitches despite getting through 6.1 innings of work Thursday. I’d like to see them give him a bit more leash here, but the results have been good enough that I can’t complain too much. He limited the Phillies to just one run on two hits, with five strikeouts and three walks Thursday, and while the strikeouts aren’t great, they came with an 86 mph average exit velocity on 14 balls in play, which helps make up for it. Cabrera has always been capable of missing bats (14 whiffs Thursday), but since emphasizing his sinker at the beginning of May, he has a 2.23 ERA with 43 strikeouts and 15 walks in 40.1 innings of work. He has only gone six innings once in eight starts in that span, but at some point, the Marlins have to let him sink or swim on his own, right?
Charlie Morton, SP, Orioles (29%) – It looked like Morton’s career might be done when he allowed 20 walks and a 9.26 ERA in his first 23.1 innings to open the season, but he has rather miraculously turned things around since. In 10 appearances (six starts) since the start of May, Morton has walked just 11 in 40.1 innings of work, with 48 strikeouts and a 3.13 ERA in that span. Given how bad Morton was in April – and how generally mediocre he has been since 2023 – it makes sense to be hesitant to buy in. But there haven’t been a ton of must-add pitchers on waivers lately, so it could be worth taking a flier on Morton for upcoming starts against a mediocre Rangers lineup over the next two weeks.
Michael McGreevy, SP, Cardinals (13%) – McGreevy has made three starts at the MLB level for the Cardinals this season, and he’s generally been solid. Pitching against the White Sox Thursday, he allowed just one run over five innings of work, and he is now down to a 2.70 ERA with 15 strikeouts and only two walks in 16.2 innings overall on the season. And that’s with a 2.51 ERA and 9.4 K/9 in 61 innings at Triple-A for the season, too. McGreevy doesn’t exactly have huge swing-and-miss stuff, but he has held his own in the majors and Triple-A at this point, and it sounds like he has a chance to stick around to give everyone else in the rotation an extra day off. That next start looks like it would likely come against the Cubs, which makes him hard to recommend as a streamer. But if he does well in that one and forces the Cardinals to keep him around, McGreevy has shown he can be a pretty useful option against big-league lineups.
Didier Fuentes, SP, Braves (3%) – If you haven’t heard the name before, don’t worry about it. Fuentes hadn’t pitched above A-ball before this season, and even now has just six starts at Double-A and Triple-A, including just one at the highest level of the minors. He’s the latest Braves pitching prospect to speed through the minors en route to his expected major-league debut Friday against the Marlins, and while I don’t think he’s the next Spencer Schwellenbach or anything, he’s a name worth watching as he gets set to make his debut. He just turned 20 the other day, and while his numbers in the minors aren’t dominant (4.81 ERA in nine starts this season), the stuff looks a lot better than that and has led to a 29% strikeout rate, which is even more impressive given his age. And Fuentes averaged 95.7 mph with his four-seamer in his lone start at Triple-A – preseason reports indicated he was sitting more around 92-94 last season, so that seems notable. I don’t expect Fuentes to dominate, and he might only be up for one start. But the strikeout upside and velocity jump at least merit a close look when he makes his start.
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