Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Everton 1 Newcastle 4

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These Expected Goals stats from Everton 1 Newcastle 4 via Understat:

Everton 1.01 Newcastle United 2.46

As you can see, Newcastle United with an Expected Goals stat that is two and a half times bigger than Everton’s.

This matches what we saw with our own eyes.

It is backed up by the fact that Newcastle United also had four times as many efforts on target as Everton, 8 v 2.

Apart from the Dewsbury-Hall goal, Everton’s only effort on target was a weak shot that Ramsdale just had to pick up.

In contrast, as well as the four that he conceded, Pickford saving a number of one on ones.

As an away team to have such dominant underlying stats AND such a dominant scoreline, this points to just how much Newcastle United excelled on Saturday at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Everton 1 Newcastle 4 – Saturday 29 November 2025 5.30pm

Match Stats

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Thiaw 1, 58, Miley 25, Woletmeade 45

Everton:

Dewsbury-Hall 69

Possession was Newcastle 51% Everton 49%

Total shots were Newcastle 13 Everton 10

Shots on target were Newcastle 8 Everton 2

Corners were Newcastle 7 Everton 8

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 28 Everton 32

Newcastle team v Everton:

Ramsdale, Livramento, Thiaw, Burn, Hall (Schar 90), Joelinton, Bruno (Tonali 90), Miley, Barnes (Ramsey 71), Elanga (Willock 71), Woltemade (Gordon 90)

Unused subs:

Ruddy, Jacob Murphy, Alex Murphy, Neave