Even the Browns can’t mess this one up: Here’s why Shedeur Sanders needs to start the rest of the season

It wasn’t perfect. But it was better — a lot better. And the game plan wasn’t complicated for Shedeur Sanders in his first NFL start: move the launch point, take some deep shots, mix in quick throws to Harold Fannin Jr. and Dylan Sampson, and let Myles Garrett and the defense cook.

Sanders finished 11 of 20 for 209 yards with a touchdown and an interception Sunday, becoming the first Browns quarterback to win his first NFL start since 1995 — back when Deion Sanders was 28, already a four-time All-Pro, and in his seventh NFL season.

After the game, Kevin Stefanski was noncommittal about his Week 13 starter. But here’s the truth: Sanders shouldn’t just start against the 49ers. He should start the rest of the season.

And here’s why.

This has less to do with Dillon Gabriel, the team’s third-round pick, and everything to do with Cleveland needing to find out exactly what it has in Sanders, drafted two rounds later. With two first-round picks in 2026, the Browns are almost certain to take a quarterback early in next spring’s draft — unless Gabriel or Sanders can prove to be the next Brock Purdy or Kirk Cousins, late-round gems who turn into long-term starters.

Through six games, we have a good idea that Gabriel isn’t yet poised to make that leap. Through six quarters, the jury remains out on Sanders. 

There’s no upside in reinstalling Gabriel as the starter. We already know who he is: a point guard who is at his best when he plays on time, especially on short and intermediate throws, but who struggles when he’s asked to push the ball down the field. In his six starts, Gabriel ranked last among rookie QBs in big-time throw percentage (1.5%), according to PFF, behind Jaxson Dart (5.9%), Tyler Shough (4.8%), Cam Ward (3.4%) and Sanders (6.3%). 

Gabriel’s average depth of target (ADOT) compared to other rookies … also last (6.4 vs. Shough’s ADOT-leading 9.9 and Sanders’ 9.8).

In late September, when Gabriel replaced Joe Flacco, I wrote how Stefanski could structure the offense for him. Many of those principles remain true for Sanders — but the ceiling is different.

(I will say – and this has everything to do with vibes and nothing to do with inside information — by outward appearances, Stefanski seems more hesitant to embrace Sanders over Gabriel. Maybe that’s because he would have happily taken Gabriel before the third round. And it was understandably odd that, two rounds later, the team decided to trade up for Sanders. Or maybe I’m just making this all up in my head. Either way, something feels off. whether it’s perceived or otherwise, I do not know.)

Here’s what I wrote at the time: 

A league source explained it to me this way: Stefanski is one of the best in the league at meeting people where they are. He’ll only ask his quarterback to do things they’re comfortable doing. Instead of asking the player to change, Stefanski will tweak things on the back end to maximize the likelihood that the quarterback has success. It’s for many of the same reasons we applaud Kevin O’Connell’s ability to get the most out of Sam Darnold or Carson Wentz or Josh Dobbs. Stefanski is just as masterful but that message sometimes gets lost because it’s buried in all the baggage that comes with Cleveland Browns football.

That message got lost for much of Gabriel’s time as the starter. But Sunday’s game in Las Vegas made it clear: Sanders gives Cleveland something worth exploring.

He only completed 55% of his attempts, but he was immeasurably cleaner in the pocket than the week before, when he came in against the Ravens after having taken as many first-team reps as you or I and looked exactly like you might imagine. 

Against the Raiders, there was very little drifting in the pocket, when he got to the top of his drop, the ball was out. There were the designed rollouts that simplified his reads, and he wasn’t afraid to push the ball down the field, which included this 55-yards-in-the-air dot to Isaiah Bond in the first half.

There was also an interception, where Sanders was fooled by defensive end Charles Snowden, who he thought was playing the flat only to undercut the throw.

But even when he made mistakes — here was a rare example of him leaving a clean pocket early and had he just reset his feet and ripped the sideline route to Jerry Jeudy, it would have been a big gain …

… Sanders bounced back. 

On the next series, he rolls right, sets his feet, and hits Jeudy in stride on a deep over route (no comment on whatever that was Jeudy decided to do after the catch):

For fun, I looked at the first NFL start of every quarterback drafted on Day 3 from 2010-2025. Of the 47 names, via TruMedia, Sanders ranked third in yards per attempt (10.4), fourth in explosive plays per dropback (14.3%), and first in deep-ball percentage (30%). 

Sanders ranked 27th in EPA per dropback (-0.21), 18th in passing yards and 29th in completion percentage.

(In its simplest form, EPA per dropback is the average number of points a quarterback creates [or loses] for his team every time he drops back.)

For context, here are the top performers among Day 3 picks making their first NFL starts: Tyrod Taylor (14 of 19, 195 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.51 EPA per dropback), Brock Purdy (16/21/185, 2/0, 0.43 EPA), Bailey Zappe (17/21/188, 1/1, 0.28 EPA) and Kirk Cousins (26/37/329, 2/1, 0.24 EPA).

Because the Browns are one of the worst teams in the league and currently have the No. 6 overall pick in the ’26 draft (along with pick No. 22, courtesy of the Jaguars, courtesy of the Travis Hunter trade), I also looked at how often teams have used a first-round pick on a quarterback a year after selecting one in any round. 

Since 2010, on 10 occasions, a team drafted the “name before the name.”

Every Day 3 pick in this table was drafted not to be the long-term starter, but to be a backup, hopefully capable of spot duty should the starter miss a few games.

The expectations were higher for Day-2 selections Clausen, Mannion and Kizer but just like I wrote last month, when 2025 second-rounder Shough replaced Spencer Rattler (incidentally, a 2024 fifth-round pick), there is every reason to think that the Saints will absolutely take a quarterback in the first round next spring if there’s one of the board they really like.

Here’s what Ran Carthon, the former Titans GM who is now my co-host on the “With the First Pick” NFL Draft podcast, said at the time about what Shough needed to do to impress the Saints enough to keep his starting job in 2026 and beyond.

“He just needs to show he can move the offense — improve the numbers, score points, and run Kellen Moore’s system efficiently,” Carthon said.

“If the results look the same as with Rattler — say they only win one or two games — and the Saints still have the No. 1 overall pick, you have to target a quarterback. Even if that means admitting you used a top 50 pick on a backup, it’s better to correct a mistake than double down on one. There’s no non-QB player at No. 1 who can transform the organization the way a true franchise QB could.”

Now replace “Shough” with “Sanders,” “Kellen Moore” with “Kevin Stefanski,” and “top 50 pick” with “fifth-round pick” and you are reminded of just how precarious the quarterback situation in Cleveland remains.

That doesn’t mean Sanders can’t be that guy — after all, he was in the first-round conversation right up until the moment the first round concluded last April. And I’m convinced that if Sanders had approached the pre-draft process with the humility that Gabriel did, he probably would have gone in the first round. 

I will say, however, Sanders has said and done all the right things in the seven months since the draft. From supporting his teammates, including Gabriel, to keeping his head down, not making excuses for his lack of playing time or practice reps, and making sure he was prepared when the moment arrived. Because the moment always arrives.

Remember, Trey Lance, former No. 3 overall pick, was the starter in San Francisco until he was injured and Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy seized his opportunity, and never looked back. In Washington, injuries derailed the career of former No. 2 overall pick RG3 … and Kirk Cousins was ready when his chance came.

We can add Sanders to that list, at least for one week. Now Stefanski needs to make the right decision, let Sanders play out the rest of the season and see if he’s more Purdy or Cousins, or just another name before the name.