Breakouts don’t just come out of nowhere. Well, sometimes they do, but usually there’s detectable magma bubbling under the surface prior to the volcanic eruption. Tom Hanks won back-to-back Oscars for “Philadelphia” and “Forrest Gump,” but anyone who saw his early performances in “Splash,” “Bachelor Party” and “Big” knew that the star quality was unassailable.
It’s with that lens that we look at the 2025-26 NBA breakout candidates from each team, knowing that making the leap to the next level can happen in a player’s second year or his seventh. There’s no script to any of this, but when you take a closer look, you can see that the signs appear to be there for certain players.
Usually we do this before the season. This time around, however, we thought getting a look at the first few games might help inform the decisions, and it clearly did. Of course, not all of these will pan out, but it will at least put some players on your radar to whom you otherwise might not have been paying attention.
Without further ado, here is every NBA team’s biggest breakout candidate for the 2025-26 season.
The No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft quietly turned it on toward the end of his rookie season, averaging 14.9 points and 3.6 rebounds over his last 35 games while making 42% of his five 3-point attempts per game. He should receive even more open looks as a sophomore with the addition of Kristaps Porziņģis and the return of a healthy Jalen Johnson. His 38-point performance as the team’s No. 2 offensive option during Silly Season in April clearly indicates his potential as he gets more comfortable in the league.
Boston’s frontcourt rotation is wide-open, and the 6-foot-10 Garza should be champing at the bit for a crack at regular minutes. A second-round pick in 2021, he’s seen sporadic action over his first four NBA seasons with the Pistons and Timberwolves. One thing’s for sure, though: The man produces. In a career-best 39 games last season, Garza averaged 22.7 points and 8.9 rebounds per 36 minutes on 50% field goal shooting. Thus far his playing time has been minimal, but if he can work his way into heavier minutes, he should easily post career numbers across the board.
It’s baffling to even consider that a player set to make $38 million this season hasn’t yet “broken out,” but — for as prolific a scorer he has been over his six-year career — Porter Jr. has never averaged 20 points per game. It’s a pretty safe bet that he’ll eclipse that milestone this season, but the real question is whether he can add some off-the-dribble sizzle to his portfolio. Porter was a decently efficient pick-and-roll scorer last season (61st percentile, per Synergy Sports) in a limited sample, but there’s at least enough there to pique your curiosity.
It’s rare to have a breakout on the defensive end of the floor, but Diabaté is a prime candidate given what he’s done for the Hornets last season and early in 2025-26. Charlotte allowed 6.1 fewer points per 100 possessions in Diabaté’s minutes last year compared to when he was on the bench, which was the best of any regular. This season it’s been even more pronounced, with Charlotte allowing 15 fewer points per 100 possessions with Diabaté on the court. He’s also an absolute menace on the offensive glass, averaging 5.4 offensive boards per 36 minutes as a 23-year-old last season (Walker Kessler led the NBA with 4.6). Diabaté has been backing up rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner to begin the season, but he could win the starter role soon if he keeps up what he’s doing.
The buzz around Buzelis is loud, and with good reason. The 6-foot-10 forward, drafted 11th overall last summer, averaged 13.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.1 blocks in his final 35 games last season on efficient 49/37/82 shooting splits. His versatility and athleticism at his size have been on display early this season — he’s averaged 12 points and 4.5 rebounds in 23 minutes per game so far.
Maybe we call it a re-breakout? Ball has been so scarcely on the floor over the past four seasons that some may have forgotten how effective he had become as a connector and floor-spacer. From 2019-2022, Ball averaged 13 points, six assists and 5.5 rebounds on 39% 3-point shooting. In 17 games to close last season with the Bulls before he was shut down in March, he averaged 10 points, 3.4 rebounds, three assists and 1.2 steals in 25 minutes, shooting 37.6% on nearly seven 3-point attempts per game. With Darius Garland starting the season on the injured reserve, Ball — though he’s yet to find his shooting stroke — has been the primary table-setter, leading the team with seven assists per game.
Is there a better big man for Lively to learn from/emulate than Anthony Davis? The two are sharing a starting frontcourt, presenting Lively — still just 21 years old — with plenty of opportunity on both ends of the floor. With Davis able to switch defensively, Lively can play free safety and protect the rim. On the other end, Lively’s scoring may not see a huge uptick next to Davis, but he will get to showcase his playmaking, which took a huge leap from his rookie to sophomore season.
Don’t be surprised if Lively cracks three assists and two blocks per game — something only Davis and Victor Wembanyama accomplished last season.
Hey, remember when Jalen Pickett put up a triple-double against the Spurs in early April? Neither do we, but that is in fact a thing that happened last season.
The 6-foot-4 power guard made 49 appearances in his second NBA season and, while he wasn’t exactly putting up triple-dubs every time out, he shot a crisp 39.6% from 3-point range on limited attempts and had an impressive 4.46 assist-to-turnover ratio. Despite their significant offseason additions, the Nuggets don’t have a traditional backup point guard on the roster, so — while minutes will be hard to come by — Pickett could be a serviceable replacement if Jamal Murray spends any time on the injured list.
His twin brother made the leap last season, and it might be Ausar’s turn in 2025-26. The Pistons’ postseason shined a spotlight on what he’s capable of defensively, but Thompson has only shown glimpses of the offensive player he could one day become. In 48 games as a starter last year, he averaged 11 points, five rebounds and 2.5 assists, shooting 54% from the field. His jump shot is nonexistent, but he inflicts tremendous damage in transition and as a cutter because of his elite athleticism. The real area primed for breakout is playmaking, where Thompson clearly has the vision to develop as he gets the reps during his third season.
He’s off to a great start, averaging 17 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals in his first three games.
“Super aggressive, very confident with his shot, moving the ball,” is how Steve Kerr described Podziemski during the preseason — this after repeatedly stating that the third-year guard had a “great camp.” Starting in the backcourt next to Stephen Curry, Podziemski is integral to what the Warriors are trying to accomplish offensively, and will get plenty of reps as the lead playmaker when he’s on the floor. With injuries to Golden State’s aging core an inevitability, Podz has a chance to put up some serious numbers and open even more eyes in his third season.
The easy answer here would be Reed Sheppard, but you can’t really call it a breakout when the guy barely played last season. So instead we’ll go with Smith Jr., who is already reaping the benefits of playing alongside Kevin Durant. The fourth-year forward should have a select choice of open 3s this season created by the pressure that KD, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson put on the defense.
Last season, only 13.6% of Smith’s 3-point attempts were characterized as “wide-open” by NBA.com (closest defender six or more feet away). By contrast, Royce O’Neale — who played with Durant last season in Phoenix — was wide-open on a ridiculous 66% of his 3-point attempts. It’s safe to say that Smith will have significantly more clean looks this season, and when those are going down, it opens up the rest of his offensive game.
As awful and depressing as they sometimes are, injuries inevitably provide opportunity. In Indiana, this is Benn Mathurin’s time. He announced as much to the basketball world with a 36-point effort in his first game of the season as the Pacers fell in double-overtime to the Thunder.
Mathurin has always been an explosive scorer, but his style hasn’t meshed with Rick Carlisle’s offense. With Indiana’s injury trouble this season, they can’t exactly be picky, so they’re going to need Mathurin’s buckets in any way he can get them.
The Clippers have a lot of old men veterans on the roster, so there’s not much room for a breakout from anyone expected to log major minutes. However, with an older roster comes an increased likelihood of injury, and Miller will be there waiting for his opportunity. Sidelined with a hamstring injury to being his third season, Miller has 45 NBA games under his belt and has shown some glimpses of dynamism despite his sporadic minutes. He looks like he’s improved his 3-point stroke based on Summer League (38.5% in five games) and a couple of preseason contests, and that could go a long way as he attempts to carve out a role with the Clippers.
Ask Anthony Edwards how much he values Vanderbilt. The Lakers need the versatile 6-foot-8 forward to stay healthy in his eighth season to anchor an otherwise shaky defense, and if he does he could become a fan favorite for people even outside the greater Los Angeles area. He’s not going to put up many 20-point games (the last time he did was 2022), but he averaged 11 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.2 steals per 36 minutes last season, complete with all the hustle plays your little heart could possibly desire. If the Lakers defense keeps its head above water this season, it will be largely due to Vanderbilt.
The talent is clearly there, but injuries and a rotational logjam prevented Jackson from putting it all together in his first two NBA seasons. The Grizzlies were understandably excited after the way he finished his rookie year, but last season saw significant dips across the board. With Desmond Bane in Orlando, Memphis needs a go-to perimeter scorer when Ja Morant is off the floor, and Jackson is a prime candidate given his isolation skill set.
He hasn’t gotten many minutes so far this season, but given Memphis’ injury history, he’ll likely get his turn at some point.
Mitchell’s career was revived after being traded to the Heat before February’s deadline, with averages of 10.3 points, 5.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds in 30 games, including 15 starts. He also shot the hell out of the ball, hitting 45% of his 3.1 3-point attempts per game — over 10 points higher than his career percentage. That confidence carried over into opening night, when he put up 16 points, 12 assists, two steals and a block on 7-for-15 shooting.
If he can continue to hover around the 40% mark from deep, that turns Mitchell into a legitimate NBA starter given his playmaking and acumen on the defensive side of the ball. Mitchell is an Erik Spoelstra player, and he should continue to receive heavy minutes even after Tyler Herro returns.
Bucks fans already know all about Green, who has the potential to be far more than the absolute knockdown 3-point shooter he clearly is. Green hits 3s from every conceivable spot on the floor, and his ability to serve as a release valve for Giannis Antetokounmpo makes him uniquely valuable on this roster.
Green is already one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA to start this season, and his ability to make plays off the dribble should come in handy as he continues to be run off the 3-point line by defenses.
Someone needs to fill in for Nickeil Alexander-Walker off the Timberwolves bench, and Shannon is getting an early chance at those minutes. An absolutely dynamic athlete, he was a decent 3-point shooter last season (and early this season), but he needs to increase his volume if he’s going to be a significant offensive contributor outside of transition. He was in the 73rd percentile in spot-up situations last season, and defenses will likely continue to leave him open — he just needs to be confident in taking them.
When you look at Hawkins as an offensive player, there’s not much not to like. He has a pure 3-point stroke, a solid pull-up game, and can finish with athleticism when he gets to the rim. For one reason or another, it simply hasn’t clicked yet. Hawkins has been solid to start this season, but hasn’t been able to crack the 18-minute mark in either of the Pelicans’ first two games. There will inevitably be injuries, however, and it will be up to Hawkins to seize the opportunity.
Mike Brown is a blessing for McBride in two ways: First, he’s diversified the offense to utilize more of New York’s talent outside of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Second, he’s already playing his reserves more than Tom Thibodeau (not a high bar), and has even started McBride once. The fifth-year guard responded by averaging 12.5 points, three rebounds and 2.5 assists on 40% 3-point shooting in his first two games.
Notably, the 3-point volume has increased from just under five attempts per game last season to 7.5 this season. That’s a sure sign that McBride has been inspired by Brown’s favorite phrase: “Let it fly.”
It’s just not fair. OKC can’t stop producing quality basketball players through its superior program, and Mitchell is the latest. The 6-foot-4 muscular guard has been a revelation, averaging 18.7 points, 4.3 assists, four rebounds and a steal on 42% 3-point shooting over the Thunder’s fist three games.
Jalen Williams is injured and Mitchell just steps right in to become the team’s third-leading scorer. Like I said, not fair.
Just three games into the season, Da Silva has nearly doubled his scoring average from his rookie year in essentially the same number of minutes. He’s making more 3-pointers, but he’s also showcased a variety of floaters around the rim that will serve him well as he continues to get run off the line. With the defensive attention that Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner command, Da Silva will have plenty of opportunities as both a spot-up shooter and a cutter this season.
This is a futures bet. There was some talk of Bona and Joel Embiid starting together to begin the season, but that hasn’t happened and Bona has been extremely unproductive in his bench minutes thus far. If you watched the 76ers at the end of last season, though (chances are you didn’t), Bona put up some massive games as the starting center. In nine Silly Season starts, he averaged 14.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game on 74% shooting. So the potential is clearly there, and with Embiid’s injury history, the likelihood is that Bona will get a chance to strut his stuff at some point this season.
Gillespie has already carved out a more significant role with this year’s Suns, averaging over 21 minutes per game compared to 14 last season — and he’s been productive, averaging 14.4 points, 5.5 assists and five rebounds per 36 minutes. If Jordan Ott decides that he wants a “true” point guard on the floor next to Devin Booker and Jalen Green (when healthy), Gillespie was more than serviceable in nine starts last season.
Portland Trail Blazers – Deni Avdija
Avdija was very good last season, but he has a chance to be, like, fringe All-Star good this season. He’s off to a great start, putting up over 20 points per game with all of the defense and intangibles that he brings on a nightly basis. He’s always been a great playmaker for his size, and he’ll have plenty of opportunity to create in the halfcourt for a Portland offense that’s finished 22nd and 29th in the past two seasons.
This is one of the NBA’s toughest situations to choose a breakout candidate since they have a set rotation and virtually everyone on the roster is an established player. We’ll go with Ellis, but that assumes that he gets enough playing time to make use of his per 36-minute averages of 12.3 points and 3.9 rebounds a season ago, while shooting a blistering 43.3% from beyond the arc. Ellis is also a tenacious defender who gave Stephen Curry some trouble (to the extent that anyone can give Steph Curry trouble) during their playoff series a couple of seasons ago, and he earned a fill-in start for Keegan Murray on Sunday — perhaps a sign that Doug Christie will give him a heavier minutes load even when the Kings are fully healthy.
Alright, I know he was the Rookie of the Year last season, but Castle has clearly gone up a level in his first three games, averaging 17 points, six rebounds and five assists on 53% shooting. He’s encountered some turnover problems while filling in for De’Aaron Fox at point guard, but those should be minimized once Fox returns and as rookie Dylan Harper begins to handle more of the playmaking responsibility.
That will leave Castle to do what he does best — lock up defensively and wreak absolute havoc on the offensive end (with total disregard for any rim that gets in his way).
Mamu has never had a consistent role during his five-year NBA career, and he may have found one in Toronto. He’s averaged 18 minutes so far in three games, putting up nine points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists on 40% 3-point shooting. He’s definitely a unique offensive player, and brings an element that the Raptors don’t have at his position. This could finally be the year that we all learn how to properly pronounce his last name.
The Jazz have a lot of young talent, but Sensabaugh appears to be the one closest to getting to the next level. The third-year forward is averaging 17.5 points in 22.5 minutes over his first two games on 54/43/100 shooting splits, building off of his 42% mark from deep last season. The microwave scorer could eventually work his way into the starting lineup, which would almost assuredly come with a corresponding bump in production.
George announced his presence with authority by putting up an absurd line of 34 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three blocks and two steals in his second game of the season, while going 7 for 9 from 3-point range. He’s not going to do that every night (he had six points the following game), but the talent and confidence are clearly there with the 21-year-old forward from Switzerland. The Wizards have a roster full of young players who need reps, so it’s good that George has already carved out a role for himself in the starting lineup.
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