The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
Betting the Spread and Total and our Best Bet
The consensus main market lines have not budged since opening PHI -7, 46.5 which implies a score of PHI 27, DAL 20. The SportsLine model projects a slightly higher and bigger victory for the Eagle with a score of PHI 31, DAL 21. You may want to “Act Now” on FanDuel offering PHI -6.5 at -120 to get that key number of 7. The best over is 46.5 available at -110 in multiple books. The model gives the game a 65% chance of going over mostly because we like the Eagles to go over their team total.
Eagles Over 27.5 Points +102 DraftKings
The Eagles are averaging 31.5 points per simulation. They averaged 30 points per game at home last season and 31 at home the previous season. We are getting +$$$ on a line significantly under their long-term average and projection. The Cowboys’ defense struggled last year going from allowing 20.2 points per game in 2023 to 27.5 last season. They are particularly bad defending the run allowing nearly 5.0 ypc last season. The Eagles rushed for 179 and 187 vs them last season and scored 34 and 41 points.
Would You Rather Have CeeDee Lamb or A.J. Brown as WR1 in Week 1?
CeeDee Lamb is our fantasy WR2 and A.J. Brown just WR15… for the full season. In this week the gap is significantly less with Lamb at WR6 and Brown WR12. In non-PPR we have Brown as the better pick with 11.6 points projected and Lamb just 10.5 points. Lamb is projected for 2 more receptions so in a half-PPR league it is a virtual tie. The lines aren’t posted yet but with a 60% chance, we have a feeling that A.J. Brown ATD is going to be a good bet, but Lamb at 33% is NOT going to be a good bet.
What’s On the Line?
The Eagles have a lot more to lose than to win. The model loves the Eagles to repeat as NFC East champs at 68% to win the division. A loss at home to the Cowboys as a TD favorite would sink this to 51% while an expected win only bumps them up to 71%. The Cowboys’ division chances only dip from 7.5% to 4.1% with a loss but a win takes them up to 16.3%… not good, but still more than a 100% increase.
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