Sunday’s NFL schedule features three games in the 4 p.m. ET window, including one of the matchups many NFL fans were most looking forward to when the 2025 NFL schedule was released, as the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs. It may come as a surprise since Josh Allen has never played in a Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes has made five, but the Bills are 4-1 during the regular season in Allen vs. Mahomes contests. The SportsLine model expects that trend to continue, backing the Bills to beat the Chiefs despite being +110 underdogs in the latest Week 9 NFL odds. The Chiefs are favored by 2 points, while the over/under is set at 52.5 points.
The model’s two other best bets for the late-afternoon window for NFL betting feature the Saints being competitive enough with the Rams to cover the spread as 14-point underdogs, and Under 44.5 total points for Jaguars vs. Ravens. Before locking in your Week 9 NFL picks, be sure to check out the top NFL betting picks from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 9 on a sizzling 45-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
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Week 9 NFL best bets for Sunday, Nov. 2 (odds subject to change):
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: Under 44.5 total points
- Saints (+14) vs. Rams
- Bills (+110) to defeat the Chiefs
Combining the model’s three picks into a Week 9 NFL parlay would result in a payout of +649 (risk $100 to win $649). Bet it now at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Jaguars vs. Raiders: Under 44.5 total points
The Jaguars and Raiders have two of the bottom eight scoring offenses in the NFL, including Las Vegas with the second-worst scoring offense at 14.7 points per game. Geno Smith hasn’t performed at the same level in Las Vegas as he did during his resurgence in Seattle. He has seven touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions this season and threw for just 67 yards against the Chiefs in Week 7 before their bye. The Jaguars have also been one of the surprisingly better defensive units in the NFL, ranking 15th in scoring defense at 22.1 ppg, but they rank 25th in scoring at 20.9 ppg. The model projects the Under to hit in 58% of simulations.
Saints (+14) vs. Rams
Quarterback Tyler Shough, a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft out of Louisville, is set to make his first NFL start for New Orleans this week, and he draws a tough defense to make it against. Although he’s a rookie, Shough has plenty of high-level football experience, playing in 42 games over seven years of college football. He entered in relief against Tampa Bay last week and completed 17 of 30 passes for 128 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, but with an entire week to prepare, he could have better results on Sunday. Despite a 1-7 record, New Orleans has only two losses by 14 points or fewer, and the model expects the Saints to stay within the margin on Sunday, projecting New Orleans to cover in 60% of simulations.
Bills (+110) to defeat the Chiefs
The Bills host the Chiefs on Sunday, and Buffalo is 11-1 in Orchard Park since the start of last season. They’ve been a dominant home team, and the model expects them to continue with an upset victory on Sunday. Josh Allen is 4-1 over his regular-season career against Patrick Mahomes, including a 30-21 win last year in Buffalo. The Bills are coming off a dominant 40-9 win against the Panthers last week as they have the No. 4 scoring offense at 29.6 ppg this season. The model projects the Bills to win in 55% of simulations, despite being the underdogs.
Want more Week 9 NFL picks?
You’ve seen the model’s Week 9 NFL best bets for Sunday. Now, get against the spread, total and money line picks for every Week 9 NFL game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Finally, SportsLine expert RJ White, who is 83-70 (+1185) over his last 153 NFL picks, has locked in multiple Week 9 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.
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