There aren’t a lot of big changes to the power rankings this week. Texas A&M and Ole Miss both move up a tier after impressive road wins, while we say goodbye to LSU.
Each week during the season, I’ll break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. I’ll also move teams based on results, discuss changes in the betting market and set the hypothetical point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers.
Stop by the SportsLine college football Discord channel or hit me up on X at @TheTomCasale to let me know if you agree or disagree with the rankings.
College football Week 10 power ratings
Tier 1
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
There is no change at the top with Ohio State and Alabama. The Crimson Tide needed a late comeback at South Carolina, although I am actually more impressed with Alabama following the win. That was an extremely tough spot for the Tide after facing four straight ranked opponents and it being South Carolina’s Super Bowl. I don’t penalize teams for tough road wins in the SEC.
Ohio State was supposed to host Penn State in one of the biggest games of the year on Saturday. Instead, the Nittany Lions have lost four straight and fired their coach. The Buckeyes were -3.5 over the summer but are now laying close to three touchdowns at home.
Tier 2 (+2 from Tier 1)
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Georgia Bulldogs
5. Indiana Hoosiers
6. Oregon Ducks
The teams in Tier 4 are rated close together and just a step below Ohio State and Alabama. I moved Texas A&M to No. 3 this week because they have quality road wins at Notre Dame and LSU. Things won’t get any easier for the Aggies. After the bye week, Texas A&M plays at Missouri and closes the regular season on the road against Texas.
I would make these teams slight underdogs against Ohio State and Alabama on a neutral field, although they are all serious contenders to win the National Championship.
Tier 3 (+5 from Tier 1)
7. Ole Miss Rebels
8. Miami Hurricanes
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10. Texas Longhorns
11. Vanderbilt Commodores
Tier 3 is what I consider the most dangerous group moving forward. All these teams have stumbled at some point during the season, but they are good enough to compete for a title.
Ole Miss moves back into this tier after its impressive win over Oklahoma. The Rebels have a favorable SEC schedule the rest of the way with three home games against South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida before traveling to Mississippi State in the season finale. The Rebels will be favored in all four games and are in great position to reach the College Football Playoff.
The team that is most intriguing to me is Notre Dame. I mentioned after the Fighting Irish’s two close losses to Miami and Texas A&M that I thought they would still run the table and make the College Football Playoff. Barring a major upset, the Irish are in the 12-team field and worth a look at +1100 to win the National Championship.
Tier 4 (+8 from Tier 1)
12. Texas Tech Red Raiders
13. BYU Cougars
14. Missouri Tigers
BYU moves up to 13 after a gutsy road win at Iowa State. That set up as a trap game for the Cougars after two hard-fought, emotional wins over Arizona and Utah. BYU fell behind early but dominated the second half, winning 41-27. The Cougars get a bye week before traveling to Texas Tech for a massive showdown with the winner almost certain to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
I didn’t penalize Missouri much for losing at Vanderbilt. The Tigers lost starting quarterback Beau Pribula but still had a chance to steal the win late. Missouri is a quality team that has come up short in losses to Vanderbilt and Alabama.
Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)
15. Oklahoma Sooners
16. Michigan Wolverines
17. Tennessee Volunteers
18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Some people might argue I have Georgia Tech too low but this is a betting power ranking and I would have all 17 teams rated ahead of the Yellow Jackets favored on a neutral field. The Yellow Jackets are in a good position to make the ACC Championship Game. However, if Georgia Tech reaches the CFP, it will likely be an underdog in the first game.
I make these three teams roughly 11-point dogs on a neutral field against either Ohio State or Alabama with Michigan having the most upside of the four.
Tier 6 (+13 from Tier 1)
19. Louisville Cardinals
20. USC Trojans/Utah Utes
Don’t look now but Louisville is a threat to win the ACC at +470. The Cardinals have a tricky road game this week at Virginia Tech and still face Clemson and SMU. However, I like how the Cardinals are playing and think there is some value betting them to win the conference at the current price.
USC and Utah are two teams I’m high on, although both stumbled in their toughest tests of the season. The Trojans get another shot to make a statement this week with a road game at Nebraska. I lean USC -6 in that matchup.
Next three: LSU Tigers, Auburn Tigers, Washington Huskies, Florida Gators, Houston Cougars
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