The only time to consider making changes to the formula you use to power rate teams is when your ratings clearly aren’t working. So far in 2025, while my ratings’ overall performance isn’t up to the last few years, it’s not underperforming at a level that would cause concern.
I wish it were. If it was, that would give me an excuse to do whatever it took to get Texas out of my top 12, because I’m am sick and tired of Texas being in my top 12. Every week I run the numbers, and every week Texas remains there. It’s making me angry.
CBS Sports 136: Texas A&M, Alabama rise into top five amid shakeup in college football rankings
Chip Patterson
After seeing the Longhorns’ offense flail helplessly on Saturday night in a 16-13 overtime win against Kentucky I thought, “maybe this is it. Maybe this is the nightmare game that pushes them out of my top 12.”
It wasn’t. The Longhorns are still clinging on, and I hate it. Their defense is simply too good to knock them out of consideration! But how bad is the offense? Well, I’ll put it in this perspective for you.
On Saturday night, Texas’ offense averaged –0.37 EPA per snap. Among games between Power Four schools this season, that performance is the eighth-worst performance by any offense this season. It’s also the only one of the 31 worst offensive performances this season in which that team somehow managed to win the game.
The next worst was the -0.21 EPA per snap LSU had in its Week 3 win over Florida, which ranks as the 32nd-worst.
The Longhorns are still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth, but selfishly, I hope they don’t get there. I already know how that game will end: in a boring 16-10 Texas loss. That’s not a game any of us want to watch, is it? Please, somebody left on this Longhorns schedule, hand them a third loss and get them out of my life for the rest of 2025. I beg you.
Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook
2025 Fornelli Power Ratings
Fell outside Top 12: USC
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