The SportsLine Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. Last year when college football expanded to a 12-team playoff, the Inside the Lines Team led the industry in forecasting what teams would be selected by reverse engineering the oddsmakers’ model to determine the scenario and then using our model numbers to quantify that scenario.
For example, an SEC school could finish fourth in the conference but may make it as long as they have no more than three losses. An ACC team, on the other hand, might have two scenarios — win the conference champ game OR make the game and lose by single digits.
Maybe this isn’t fair, but we’re not here to judge, we are here to accurately project for betting purposes. What is fair is our Power Ranking system, which is based on the % of simulations each team wins vs every other FBS team in the country on a neutral field in a simulated championship game setting.
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Tier 1: Championship Contenders
These teams all win 85% or more of their simulations vs. the rest of the country. LSU and Heisman contender Garrett Nussmeier are the one team that has well under a 50% chance of making the playoffs because while they may be the eighth-best team in our power rankings, they are the fourth-best team from the SEC. Last season, only three SEC schools made the Playoff. Interestingly enough, the three highest teams in terms of playoff% all come from the Big Ten.
Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon all rank above Texas in terms of playoff% because they all have a strong shot at getting at-large bids due to how top-heavy their conference is. The SEC, as we saw last season, can have a big group of teams go 9-3 and cannibalize itself, but all three of Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon have a strong chance of going at least 10-2.
Tier 2: Conference Championship Contenders
Ole Miss is ranked below LSU, but with a surprisingly easy SEC schedule, the Rebels’ chances of finishing third in that conference are quite high. As a result, their playoff chances are very strong. You can get them at +198 on FanDuel as we publish, which implies a 33.6% chance, which is well under our 57%. Sign up for FanDuel here and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Despite a good amount of turnaround after losing a big group of key players to the draft, we like Ole Miss’ schedule layout in which the Rebels play most of the bottom-tier teams in the SEC. If Ole Miss can split the Georgia and Oklahoma games on the road, they have a good shot at going 10-2 or better.
Missouri is another surprisingly good team. We might have them slightly overranked due to their favorable schedule over the last few seasons, but they still present value as a longshot play. Their 29% playoff% is a great value, especially at +800 on DraftKings—where you can get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly. Like a lot of teams, they have significant departures, but they did get Penn State QB transfer Beau Pribula. Like Ole Miss, they benefit from a soft schedule, and our model is weighing their ability to win football games a good amount after going a combined 21-5 over the last two seasons.
Clemson is our favorite to win the ACC, but the model does not consider them as a truly elite team. We had the same opinion of the Tigers last season, and when they were crushed by Georgia in Week 1 and lost to South Carolina in Week 14, we felt validated. They will have a similar opportunity to prove us wrong by beating LSU (a Tier 1 team) in Week 1 and SC again to end the regular season. Clemson played three Power 4 non-conference opponents last season and went 0-3 in those games. Yes, Clemson turned it on at the end of the season, but the Tigers also struggled with Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Clemson returns pretty much their entire core, but given their on-field performance as a whole over the last few seasons, we just don’t see them as a top-10 team in the country.
Our 49% to make (51% to miss) would make us lean towards taking the +155 DraftKings is offering on Clemson to miss the playoffs. As a result, the next tier of ACC teams– SMU, Georgia Tech, and Louisville– could have some longshot value to make the playoffs.
Tier 3: Playoff Contenders
We would not be surprised one bit if any of these teams below made the playoffs. Oklahoma collapsed after the first month last season, but John Mateer is a sneaky good Heisman value. We don’t think Carson Beck will be able to fill Cam Ward’s shoes but 12 months ago, Beck was the most likely No. 1 pick, not Ward, and perhaps he can live up to previously high expectations.
Kansas State and Iowa State are not in the Top 20, but they are the top-ranked Big 12 teams. Our model assumes only the Big 12 champion will make the playoff field. The loser of that sees their playoff chances drop to single digits.
Tier 4: Bubble Teams
If this were College Basketball, these teams would be on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. But since this is football and the most expansion we’ll see is maybe 16 teams, they are only going to be able to play spoiler.
Texas Tech is perhaps the most interesting team in the country. The Red Raiders had the second-best transfer class according to 247Sports, and they also brought back their starting QB and several key pieces. We don’t want to bump them up too much based on their on-field results the last two seasons, but they could be similar to last year’s Arizona State team.
Florida State is coming off a 2-10 season, but they are a team that has a lot of variance. They could finish the season in the top 40 or finish bottom 40 depending on QB Thomas Castellanos play. Despite being 66th in our power rankings, we like their O 6.5 Wins line (-160, Caesars).
UNLV is full of Power 4 transfers in their fifth and sixth seasons trying to prove something. Dan Mullen has won at the SEC and has a reputation of developing quarterbacks (Tim Tebow, Dak Prescott, Kyle Trask). If a team is going to dethrone Boise in the Mountain West, look for it to be the Runnin’ Rebels.
Tier 5: Everyone Else
While you may not pay much attention to these schools, you should pay attention to the ones playing great teams with win total lines over/under 9.5. One reason why the model is high on Oklahoma to improve, win over 6.5 (-180 Hard Rock), and John Mateer to win the Heisman at +2500 (BetRivers, FanDuel) is they get to play last-place Kent State AND second-to-last-place Temple.
They essentially have three FCS schools on their schedule and only have to beat four “real” teams. If the Sooners let Mateer play more than a half in these games, he could get 12+ TDs and cruise to the statistical threshold needed to win the Heisman.
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