Don’t be surprised if Jim Phillips has bags under his eyes this week because the ACC commissioner is dealing with a nightmare scenario. Against all odds, despite being 7-5 on the season, and losing a second ACC game against Virginia two weeks ago that should’ve eliminated them from the race, the Duke Blue Devils are playing for the ACC title next week.
If Duke beats Virginia in the rematch the ACC will find itself in serious trouble of missing out on the College Football Playoff entirely. An 8-5 Duke squad is no guarantee to be ranked ahead of two Group of Five conference champions. I wrote a few weeks ago that the idea of Duke winning the ACC was completely outlandish, and that if it did, there’s no way it would be ranked behind James Madison if James Madison won the Sun Belt.
But that was with the understanding Duke would be 9-4. That second loss to Virginia the following week was supposed to be the end of the scenario.
Now we’re here and James Madison is very much alive and is a serious threat to put the ACC in one of the most embarrassing situations it could ever imagine. When the current format was put together with the idea of giving automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, it was generally assumed that four of those champions would always be the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC.
They’re the Power Four, after all! Now one of those Power Four leagues could be told that its champion isn’t as good as two champions from the American and Sun Belt. Perception is reality, and suddenly the perception of the ACC isn’t one of power.
It would be another black eye for the league who has spent much of the last few years in court dealing with two of its premier programs suing to get out of it because, in their eyes, the ACC is beneath them. Sure, the failures of Clemson and Florida State — and, to a lesser degree, Miami — are a huge factor why the ACC is in this mess (you don’t see the Big Ten and SEC powers struggling to get to bowl games), but I’m not sure that eases the pain of the situation.
So, if you’re Jim Phillips, you have to spend the next week trying to sell a conference title game (they exist primarily to make money) featuring a Virginia team the CFP selection committee has never considered the best team in your league facing a team that same committee isn’t likely to include in the field. And you have to pretend you want both teams to have fun while the whole world knows you’re hoping beyond hope that Virginia doesn’t lose this game.
The good news is, while Virginia beat Duke 34-17 in their last meeting (at Duke, by the way), the game wasn’t as close as the score suggests. Virginia led 31-3 going into the fourth quarter. The bad news is the spread for the rematch at time of writing was Virginia -2.5, with the moneyline at (-142). That means the oddsmakers project Virginia to win the game roughly 59% of the time.
So, 59% of the time, the ACC gets a team in the College Football Playoff every time. What could go wrong?
Campaign season
It may surprise you to learn that the person who writes a weekly column called The CFP Vibe Check isn’t a huge fan of the College Football Playoff, but it’s true. I’m not. While there are many things about the format I’m not fond of, one of the things that annoys me the most is campaign season, when coaches stump for their team to earn an at-large bid. I become even more annoyed when friends or television broadcasts stump for them, too.
Which brings me to No. 16 Texas’ huge 27-17 win over No. 3 Texas A&M on Friday night. Handing the Aggies their first loss of the year gave Texas the kind of resume needed to be considered with a record of 9-3. But, man, the way Steve Sarkisian and friends tried to sell it afterwards drove me insane.
Sarkisian wanted you to believe that Texas was being punished for scheduling Ohio State and losing that game, and that if you kept the Longhorns out of the playoff, it would be a signal to all coaches not to schedule those games. What Sarkisian got wrong was that the loss to Ohio State wasn’t working against Texas. No, the loss to Ohio State is the only thing that allows Texas to be in the conversation at all, despite having three losses.
It’s the loss to a 4-8 Florida that you’re being punished for, coach. Florida’s other three wins this season came against Long Island (6-6), Mississippi State (2-7 vs. P4 teams) and Florida State (3-7 vs. P4 teams). Throw on a 25-point loss to Georgia on top of that, and Texas’ case crumbles a bit more.
Also, coaches in this situation are no different than politicians. You need to listen to what they don’t say more than what they do. Perhaps that’s why Sarkisian never brought up needing overtime to beat Kentucky (5-7 following a 41-0 loss to Louisville Saturday) and Mississippi State (the same one Florida beat).
The one thing the committee doesn’t do that coaches do is pick and choose which games to talk about. They look at them all, and they all count. Now, that said, it’s not like I believe Texas is a bad team. It’s not. It’s simply a team that must suffer the consequences of some ugly results, but it’s also the only 3-loss team in the country that should be considered if results broke their way.
Unfortunately for Texas, all the teams it needed to lose to have a serious chance to enter the conversation won this weekend, so Sark’s words were for naught.
Who’s getting the byes?
What we know for sure is that, no matter what happens in the Big Ten Championship, both Ohio State and Indiana will receive a first-round bye. They are playing for a conference title and the No. 1 seed, but the loser won’t fall further than No. 4. Hell, it might not fall further than No. 2.
After that, it gets a bit murkier. The winner of the SEC Championship between Georgia and Alabama will receive a bye. Yes, even if that winner is an Alabama team with two losses. If you think the SEC champion isn’t going to be given a bye over a Big 12 champion or an at-large, you have not been paying attention to how the College Football Playoff works.
Don’t forget which two leagues have full decision-making ability about the future of the format.
Now, if Georgia beats Alabama, that opens up a spot. It’s still possible the Tide would receive a bye (the committee made it pretty clear last year it doesn’t want to punish teams for losing conference championships too harshly), but I think Texas Tech would have a real shot at getting it should it beat BYU again in the Big 12 Championship. In fact, if Texas Tech blows the Cougars out again, I would fully expect it to earn the bye over a 10-3 Alabama.
Where things would get interesting is if Georgia wins and knocks Alabama out of the bye picture, how will the committee look at Texas Tech compared to Texas A&M or Oregon?
And what happens if BYU beats Texas Tech in the rematch? Do the Cougars get the fourth bye?
My gut tells me that teams like Texas A&M, Oregon and even a 10-3 Alabama would stand a better chance against BYU than Texas Tech. All three are already ahead of BYU in the latest CFP rankings, while Texas Tech is ahead of all but A&M, and could be ahead of A&M come Tuesday night.
Notre Dame on high-alert during CCG weekend
I’m sure we will continue to debate Notre Dame and Miami’s placement in the rankings because of the head-to-head result to start the year, but don’t expect anything to change. The committee has had Notre Dame ahead of Miami in every ranking, and although Miami has shrunk the gap, nothing happened this week that should cause the Hurricanes to pass the Irish in the eyes of the committee.
Notre Dame beat Stanford, 49-20, while Miami beat Pitt, 38-7.
No, based on what happened this weekend, the biggest threat to Notre Dame’s place in the field is not Miami, but BYU. If BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship, the Big 12 will get two teams into the field. The committee has shown far too much respect for Texas Tech to think a loss to a team it already beat by 22 points would knock it out of the field entirely.
That means the lowest-ranked at-large would be the team at risk. In last week’s rankings, that was Alabama, but as we previously discussed, any possible punishment for an Alabama loss in the SEC Championship will not be severe enough to take it out of the field. That means Notre Dame (which I’m guessing will be passed by Alabama in the rankings on Tuesday) is the team at risk.
So if you’re a Notre Dame fan, just because you aren’t in a conference doesn’t mean you don’t have a conference championship game to be invested in. Formerly independent BYU simply cannot win the Big 12.
Rest in CFPeace
The following teams saw their College Football Playoff hopes die this weekend. We honor their memory here, and do not expect to mention them in this column as playoff hopefuls again until next season.
- Georgia Tech (9-3 overall, 6-2 ACC): The Yellow Jackets did not finish the season well. They lost three of their final four games after starting the year 8-0, and their only hope of sneaking into the field would’ve been as a 10-2 team with a win over Georgia.
- Michigan (9-3 overall, 7-2 B1G): It was a simple formula for Michigan. Beat Ohio State again, and you were in the playoff field, and you might even get an automatic bid by winning the Big Ten. They didn’t.
- Pittsburgh: (8-4 overall, 6-2 ACC): The Panthers could’ve reached the ACC Championship with a win over Miami, but it looked like a third straight “big” game wore out the Panthers. They didn’t look competitive against the Canes.
- SMU (8-4 overall, 6-2 ACC): It’s because it was the final domino to fall, but SMU’s 38-35 loss at Cal was the most consequential result of the week for the ACC. Had the Mustangs won they’d be facing Virginia next week and the ACC would be a lock to get one team into the CFP. Instead, Jim Phillips is chugging antacid.
- Utah (10-2 overall, 7-2 Big 12): The Utes needed a lot to go their way to get into the Big 12 championship, but only got halfway there. It would be a shock of epic proportions if the Utes grabbed an at-large.
This week’s CFP projection
This is not a prediction of what we’ll see Tuesday night, but rather a predicted outcome of what the final field will look like
1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Texas A&M
6. Oregon
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. Virginia
12. North Texas
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