The 2025 college football season is entering crunch time. There are just two full weeks left before all eyes turn towards conference championship games and, beyond that, the final College Football Playoff Rankings reveal, which will set the 12-team field in stone.
That means every single game from this point forwards matters a little bit more. Some teams, like No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana and No. 3 Texas A&M, feel good about their odds to make the playoff regardless of what happens down the stretch.
There’s a wider swath of teams left on the bubble, though. It seems as if there will be a glut of two-loss — and even a handful of three-loss — teams pushing for an at-large bid over the next couple of weeks.
Most programs within the top 20 of the latest CFP Rankings have a chance of making the final cut, at the very least.
Suffice to say, there’s a lot on the line for a lot of prominent teams as the 2025 season nears its conclusion. Here’s a look at the Week 13 contests that matter in the College Football Playoff race and the implications for both teams involved.
No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon
Barring something entirely unexpected, the Big Ten Championship Game is essentially set as Ohio State and Indiana appear destined to meet in Indianapolis. But this matchup between two teams near the top of the standings still carries major stakes. Oregon has navigated a tricky end-of-season slate well and is in strong position for one of the playoff’s at-large spots. The Ducks could even afford another loss, though beating a ranked opponent at home would bolster their résumé with a tough trip to Washington looming to close the regular season.
For USC, this is a must-win. The Trojans have climbed back into the race with quality victories over Michigan, Nebraska and Iowa, but Oregon represents an entirely different caliber of opponent. A win would be a significant statement with less than three weeks before the selection committee releases its final rankings. USC is already on the two-loss threshold, so another defeat would likely knock the Trojans out of at-large contention.
Missouri is, for all intents and purposes, out of the playoff hunt. The Tigers do not have a win over a currently ranked opponent. That could change Saturday, but there’s no guarantee that beating Oklahoma would vault them into at-large range, especially with several Power Four teams still ahead in the pecking order.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, has plenty on the line. The Sooners have been road warriors in recent weeks, picking up back-to-back wins at No. 20 Tennessee and No. 10 Alabama. That run has them firmly in the at-large field. But with two losses already, their margin for error is gone. There isn’t expected to be much room for any three-loss team once December arrives — even one with a résumé as strong as Oklahoma’s.
Pittsburgh wilted in its biggest moment of the season, falling 37-15 to old rival Notre Dame. The final score is deceiving, as the gap between the Panthers and the Fighting Irish looked even wider on the field. Pitt subsequently dropped out of the College Football Playoff rankings. The Panthers can still play spoiler against a couple of conference foes to close the season and, more importantly, their ACC Championship Game hopes remain alive. Get there, and the playoff stays within reach.
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, literally controls its own destiny. All the Yellow Jackets need to do is beat Pittsburgh to lock up a spot in the ACC Championship Game. That appears to be their clearest playoff path, as the selection committee continues to rank Miami — which has no realistic route to the title game — ahead of every other ACC team for an at-large bid.
BYU sits just outside the latest College Football Playoff bracket, with the bubble-entrenched Cougars chasing No. 10 Alabama and No. 9 Notre Dame. Like several others, they control their own destiny: win out and they’re likely headed for a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. The trip to Cincinnati won’t be easy. The Bearcats have dropped two straight, but they appeared in the first two CFP rankings releases and remain a dangerous opponent.
Cincinnati can still technically reach the Big 12 title game, but it needs help. Beating BYU would be a crucial first step, giving the Bearcats the head-to-head edge over the Cougars. From there, they’d need a series of breaks — including losses by Arizona State, Houston and Utah — to keep the path alive.
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