It goes without saying to pay attention to results each week in college football, especially when it comes to streaks. Invariably, point spread win and loss runs expire each week and new ones begin. Streak lists from weeks past are not terribly important at the present; we’re looking to identify just a handful of sides each week who might be ready to go on a new uptick or catch a downdraft.
Into late October, we’re still at the point of this 2025 campaign when trends can develop and carry through the final month of the regular season. How often we have seen such trends emerge from the end of October and onward? So, we continue to pay attention to these weekly lists, seeking to identify a few sides ready to go on extended runs.
As we have throughout October, we note the weekly “point spread reversal” listing, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. Again, another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround … good or bad.
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Point spread reversal plus (+)
The teams: Boise State, Florida International*, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Kentucky, Michigan, Middle Tennessee*, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Penn State, Stanford, TCU, UAB, UTEP, UMass, Vanderbilt
*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.
Normally, this is the time of season when we try to identify teams that have been underachieving from the first half of the season and might now begin to offer some spread value. Though we’re not on any Penn State bandwagon after recent developments in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions (off this week) might be a team to watch into November, even minus QB Drew Allar. Penn State is not likely to be overvalued any longer this season, and it’s interesting that the Nittany Lions did cover a number at Iowa in their first game minus HC James Franklin.
Similarly, North Carolina at least didn’t look as bad as in past weeks in the spread cover last Friday at Cal. After its shocker over Memphis, UAB might also be worth watching, perhaps beginning the sort of new-coach “bounce” for interim Alex Mortensen that we recently saw with UCLA after promoting Tim Skipper.
Point spread reversal minus (-)
The teams: Air Force, Appalachian State, Clemson, Duke, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Iowa, Kent State, Louisiana Tech*, Memphis, Miami-Fla, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UL-Lafayette, Utah, Virginia, Western Kentucky*
*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.
We have long maintained that it might be easier to find go-against teams in the later stages of a season than go-with sides. Sometimes those sorts come from teams that appear in the rankings. Thus, we keep an eye on the Miami Hurricanes, notorious for cooling off late in the season under HC Mario Cristobal, and perhaps even Texas A&M, still unbeaten but barely surviving (and not covering) last week at Arkansas and with a meatgrinder SEC slate still to come.
ACC sources suggest Duke might have been playing over its head for a few weeks and are keeping an eye on the Blue Devils after the Georgia Tech loss. Clemson’s appearance here has more to do with QB Cade Klubnik’s injury that kept him out of last week’s game vs. SMU; the dropoff to backup Christopher Vizzina is steep. The Tigers also aren’t in action next until Nov. 1 vs. Virginia, by which point Klubnik might be ready to return.
Point spread win streaks
6: Alabama 5-0-1 last six
4: Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Miami-Ohio, Northwestern, San Diego State, South Florida, Temple, Troy, Western Michigan, Maryland 3-0-1 last four, UCLA 3-0-1 last four
3: Kansas State, Kennesaw State* Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Washington State, Southern Miss 2-0-1 last three, UConn 2-0-1 last three
2: Arkansas, Arkansas State, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech, Houston, Marshall, New Mexico State*, Ohio State, SMU, UCF, Wyoming.
*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.
The list above begins to thin considerably once past the three-game threshold, though we saw commentary for some of the lower-profile sides that continue to punch above their weight. In particular, Miami-Ohio, San Diego State, Temple, Troy and Western Michigan are all rather quietly going about their business and have pushed their spread win streaks to four.
Of those on three straight covers, Pittsburgh’s surge coincides directly with frosh QB Mason Heinstschel entering the starting lineup. Among those in the potential earliest stages of an uptick, we would pay attention to Arkansas, as its two spread covers in a row (though in outright losses) have come since interim Bobby Petrino took over for Sam Pittman. Arkansas State, expected to do a bit more this season, could be in the midst of salvaging its campaign for under-fire HC Butch Jones.
Point spread losing streaks
5: Boston College, Baylor, Northern Illinois, Texas State
4: Florida State. Nebraska, South Alabama*
3: Delaware*, Fresno State, Liberty, Missouri State*, Navy, Oklahoma State, UL-Monroe
2: Akron, Auburn, Buffalo, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia State, Iowa State, Old Dominion. Ole Miss, Rice, Rutgers, San Jose State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Tulsa, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin.
*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.
Some of the underachievers noted above have not shown signs of breaking their extended pointspread malaise, Boston College and Northern Illinois (each highlighted recently as “fade” candidates in this space) among them. As noted earlier, there are apt to be more teams packing it in down the stretch, especially these days with the rash of midseason coaching changes, etc.
Things might be starting to unravel with some of those sides currently within the 2-game spread loss list; we’d watch Akron, as Joe Moorhead’s regime has yet to make a breakthrough as pressure mounts in the Rubber City while we will keep a close watch on Florida after the Billy Napier dismissal earlier this week, with Billy Gonzales now promoted as the interim.
Rutgers (at Purdue this week) and San Jose State (off until Nov. 1 vs. Hawaii) are both off this week, but recent indicators have not been positive for either.
Away from spread past two decisions … plus (+)
- Washington State +22.75
- UConn +22.50
- Coastal Carolina +22.00
- Marshall +21.75
- San Diego State +20.75
- South Florida +19.50
- Western Michigan +19.50
- Northwestern +18.75
- New Mexico State +18.50*
- Kennesaw State +17.50*
- Wake Forest +17.50
- Troy +16.50
- UCLA +16.25, Temple +15.25
- James Madison +13.25
- UCF +13.25
- Minnesota +12.25
- Colorado State +12.00
- Stanford +12.00
- Kent State +11.50
- Kansas State +9.75
- Pittsburgh +8.50
- Indiana +7.75
- Arkansas +7.50
- UAB +7.00
*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.
Jumping out from the above list is the fact we don’t see a Power 4 conference representative until we get down to Wake Forest (+17.50); all of those above the Demon Deacons are from the Group of Five loops (or, in the cases of Washington State and UConn, their own special circumstances). The Cougars roaring to the top spot highlights a schedule curiosity this season, as in consecutive weeks, Wazzu seems to have caught a couple of ranked sides from the Power 4 either flat or looking ahead.
The continued appearance of the likes of San Diego State and Western Michigan in the above list suggests the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the Aztecs and Broncos.
Away from spread past two decisions … minus (-)
- Old Dominion -36.00
- Rice -23.00
- Fresno State -22.75
- Wisconsin -20.00
- Florida State -19.25
- Rutgers -19.00
- Ole Miss -15.50
- Michigan State -15.25
- California -14.75
- ULM -14.75
- Nebraska -14.50
- Charlotte -11.75
- UMass -11.00
- Western Kentucky -10.75*
- Delaware -10.50*
- Northern Illinois -10.25
- Tulsa -10.00
- Buffalo -9.75
- Tennessee -9.75
- West Virginia -9.25
- Florida -8.75
- Nevada -8.75
- Oklahoma State -8.75
- Iowa State -8.50
- Akron -7.75
- Navy -7.50
- South Alabama -7.50*
- South Carolina -7.50
- Miami -7.25
- Boise State -7.00
*-Subsequent midweek game this week not included.
The top end of the above list always includes some eye-openers; we’re not sure what has gone on with Old Dominion in its past two games (running into a hot James Madison last week might be one of the reasons), but it’s not good. A number of those noted above also could fall into the “overrated” category, which can’t be camouflaged for an entire season; count Florida State and Nebraska among those.
We also keep an eye on teams with no coaches, whose regimes might start to lose traction as their initial campaigns proceed; Rice, Fresno State, Charlotte, and Tulsa could be among those. Also, Wisconsin and South Carolina (more on the Gamecocks below) have been disappointments this season and might stick in this listing into November.
Shade/Fade alert this week
Northwestern
The Wildcats have emerged as one of the hot teams in the Big Ten. With four straight wins (and three straight covers), the Cats are one win away from bowl eligibility for the second time in three seasons under HC David Braun, whose current edition is reminding a lot of his surprising 2023 edition that qualified for the Las Vegas Bowl and upset Utah once there.
Two years ago, however, NU was doing it with minimal offense. Now, with SMU transfer Preston Stone at QB, the offense has a sharper edge. As the case two years ago, it’s a rock-ribbed defense that has the Wildcats on the prowl, ranking 11th nationally in scoring at a mere 15.1 points per game. The schedule gets interesting in the last month of the season, as NU will be playing a pair of games at the Cubs’ Wrigley Field (vs. Minnesota and Michigan) in November.
Next game: Saturday at Nebraska
Lean: Shade
Nebraska
How convenient to stick in the Big Ten with Northwestern’s upcoming foe! We have suspected the hype meter has been way off on the Cornhuskers all season, as the national media seems hopeful of rekindling the glory days in Lincoln even though we’re nearly 30 years on from Dr. Tom Osborne’s last team. Not a peep from the Cornhuskers since, and we are beginning to wonder what all of the hype is about with HC Matt Rhule, who, upon inspection, hasn’t accomplished all that much since 2019 at Baylor.
This might be Rhule’s best Nebraska edition, but last week’s 24-6 beatdown administered by a modest Minnesota team suggests the hype might again be misplaced. Protecting QB Dylan Raiola continues to prove an issue, and we have to wonder if accompanying chatter about Rhule on Penn State’s radar could cause a distraction.
Next game: Saturday vs. Northwestern
Lean: Fade
Miami (OH)
We’ve seen the RedHawks rally before in the MAC under long-serving HC Chuck Martin, who looks to have Miami on the move again. The RedHawks had another bumpy September, made more awkward by QB Dequann Finn getting hurt on what might have been one of the single worst plays of the season, a fluky pass interception vs. UNLV on Sept. 20 that was returned for a pick-six by the Rebels, swinging momentum of a game that Miami was dominating. Finn was crushed by a big hit on the play and suffered a concussion that kept him put until the Oct. 4 game at Northern Illinois, when he accounted for 260 yards of total offense in a 25-14 win.
Finn, formerly a MAC MVP at Toledo before last year’s transfer to Baylor, where he suffered painful early-season rib injury and never got back in the lineup, is an established dual-threat, and playing within himself, passing between 22-26 times in each of Miami’s last three wins (part of an overall four-game uptick). As for Martin, he’s now 18-3 straight-up and 15-6 vs. the spread in MAC games since 2023, and has a showdown game vs. Western Michigan at Yager Stadium this weekend, but a combo of one of the best defenses in the MAC along with a former MVP at QB suggests the RedHawks probably probably aren’t done winning just yet.
Next game: Saturday vs. Western Michigan
Lean: Shade
South Carolina
Several offensive coordinators/play-callers are feeling some heat in the SEC these days. Yet we don’t think there has bee a bigger letdown than at South Carolina, where Shane Beamer’s decision to promote veteran coach Mike Shula to OC after Dowell Loggains took the App State HC job has been nothing short of a disaster for the Gamecocks. Shula, on staff as an offensive analyst last season, hasn’t been able to unlock dual-threat QB LaNorris Sellers as Loggains had. The latter was able to get Sellers into space a year ago and allow his mobility to generate big plays. None of that has occurred in 2025 as Sellers seems either boxed in the pocket, or designed run plays that don’t fool the defense.
SC ranks in the triple digits in 10 different offensive categories this season, with the latest display of ineptitude last week against Oklahoma in a 26-7 loss, a team SC beat 35-9 in Norman a year ago. As the defense has dropped a notch from last year’s dominant unit, you can see why this is unraveling at Williams-Brice Stadium and now the rumor mill is starting to whirr even more loudly about Beamer perhaps going back to alma mater Virginia Tech.
It’s not a good situation right now in Columbia as the Gamecocks, ranked by most in the top 15 entering this season, are instead a couple of weeks away from becoming bowl-ineligible.
Next game: Saturday vs. Alabama
Lean: Fade
Arkansas State
There can be pressure in the Sun Belt, too, and they have known some success in Jonesboro across the past 15 or so years. Though the Red Wolves made a recovery the past two years qualifying for bowls, they have finished above .500 just once (a year ago) in four seasons on the watch of HC Butch Jones. Any backsliding this year, regional sources have insisted, could prove a big problem for Jones, who looked to be in serious trouble a few weeks ago after a loss at ULM dropped Ark State to 1-4 for a season in which many supporters were expecting a breakthrough.
Well, it might not be too late, as the Red Wolves displayed a lot of character in back-to-back, white-knuckle wins as an underdog over Texas State and last week at South Alabama, hitting the game-winning field goal on the final play in Mobile. Suddenly, the Red Wolves are alive again in the Sun Belt race and dual-threat QB Jalen Raynor, a multi-year starter, continues as one of the top Belt performers, getting his run dimension re-established in the wins over the Bobcats and Jaguars after ULM shut off his escape routes on Sept. 27.
Ark State was supposed to be a Sun Belt contender this season, and the Red Wolves are finally playing like one.
Next game: Saturday vs. Georgia Southern
Lean: Shade
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