After a wild Week 9 brought another round of big coaching changes in college football, it’s time to shift our attention forward to Week 10 with some early predictions for this week’s biggest games.
The Week 10 slate features a trio of ranked matchups and some of the nation’s best getting important tests in conference play. There are some big spreads out there for top-ranked teams who will be hoping to avoid any spooky season scares on Halloween weekend, and if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that things rarely go according to plan in the world of college football.
It may just be Monday, but it’s never too early to try to find some edges and capture opportunity on the market before the late money moves in closer to the weekend. Here, we’ll dive into seven of the biggest games of Week 10 and offer our score predictions for each of them, looking at the key matchups, injury news and recent results that provide some guidance on how these games will shake out.
The Commodores haven’t won on the road against a ranked opponent since 2007 when they beat then-No. 6 South Carolina. They had a chance earlier this year at Alabama, but turnovers derailed them in Tuscaloosa. Now they head to Austin to face a ranked Texas team that’s struggled against top competition this season in what figures to be Vandy’s best chance to break that nearly two-decade long streak.
The key in this game will be Diego Pavia’s ability to avoid mistakes. The Vandy offense goes as he goes, and when he looks great, so do the Commodores. Against Alabama, he was sloppy in the red zone with a couple back-breaking turnovers, and last week against Mizzou, he wasn’t sharp in the passing game either in a game they narrowly escaped with a victory. This Texas defense isn’t impenetrable, as we saw last week against Mississippi State, but they will pounce on opportunities to turn you over. Pavia has to stay under control in a hostile road environment, but against this particular Texas team, he doesn’t need to be at his absolute, game-breaking best for Vandy to have success.
On the other side of the ball, Arch Manning’s status for the game is unknown as he’s in concussion protocol and did not practice on Monday. Whether it’s Manning or backup Matthew Caldwell, Texas is going to have to deal with a Vanderbilt defensive front that loves to tee off on opposing quarterbacks. We saw them get after LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier in their big win over the Tigers, and given Manning’s propensity to hold the football and take sacks, the Commodores will be pinning their ears back any time they get Texas into an obvious passing situation.
Steve Sarkisian is going to have to commit to running the ball and dialing up some well-timed screens and quick passing actions in this game to keep Vandy’s defense honest. To stick to that plan, they’ll need to avoid falling behind, and that’s a tough task against a Vanderbilt team that is just rock solid across the board.
The ‘Dores are short dogs on the road, but I like them to get the job done and win on the field, snapping that 18-year losing streak when traveling to play ranked opponents. PICK: Vanderbilt 27-23 over Texas
This was once expected to be one of the games of the year, but instead, it’s expected to be another blowout in favor of the Buckeyes. They’ve been on cruise control since the opener against Texas, and there’s little reason to think they’ll be forced to change their season-long approach against the Nittany Lions.
Ohio State’s formula has been simple — lean on an elite defense that’s suffocating opposing offenses and do enough offensively to create a comfortable cushion. Julian Sayin has looked good in his first season under center and has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal at the receiver position, headlined by Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. As the second half of the season progresses, the Buckeyes will be hoping to get more consistency out of their rushing attack. They haven’t run the ball like we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Ohio State teams of the past, and that’s kept them from being as dynamic offensively.
The good news for Ohio State is they’re about to play a Penn State defense that has woefully underperformed to expectation this season. As a whole, the Nittany Lions are having a season to forget. They’ve lost four straight, lost quarterback Drew Allar for the season, fired coach James Franklin two weeks ago and are about to face the top two teams in the country in back-to-back weeks.
They hung tough on the road at Iowa with interim Terry Smith leading the way before their bye week, but the defense once again couldn’t get key stops when needed. Now they have to deal with an Ohio State team that has been a machine, and while Jim Knowles will undoubtedly have a game plan for his old squad, they haven’t done much this season that indicates they’ll execute that plan as needed. On the other side of the ball, this is a brutal spot for Ethan Grunkemeyer to make his second career start, and it’s hard to see where Penn State creates the kind of explosives needed to have a chance in this game. This might not end up with the most lopsided score line of the weekend, but I have a feeling this is going to feel like an extremely one-sided affair in Columbus. PICK: Ohio State 31-6 over Penn State
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party returns to Jacksonville with both teams fresh off a bye week, per usual. This year’s edition of one of the SEC’s great rivalries will be particularly fascinating as it is going to be the first game for the Gators after Billy Napier’s firing. While Florida fans rejoiced over Napier’s dismissal, it’ll be interesting to see how the locker room feels about the decision.
For all his struggles with game management, Napier never seemed to lose the locker room, and there’s no guarantee of a fired coach bounce here. For every firing that galvanizes the locker room, in this current era there are just as many that result in guys putting one foot out the door and thinking about where they’re going to go in the portal next year. If that’s the case, the Gators will find themselves in trouble against a Georgia team that may not be as fearsome as they were at their peak but have found a little something on the offensive side of the ball.
I expect Florida to show up just because it won’t want to get embarrassed in a rivalry game, but I just don’t think the Gators are up to pulling off the stunning win. PICK: Georgia 31-20 over Florida
Maryland has lost their last three games by a combined 10 points. It is a stretch of football that has embodied the Mike Locksley era in College Park, as they’ve been painfully close to breakthroughs, only to lose in gutting fashion. After that run of tough losses, their reward is an Indiana team hellbent on making their opponent’s as miserable as possible on Saturdays.
Even when the Hoosiers have gotten off to slow starts, like last week against Michigan State, they eventually hit the afterburners and leave opponents in the dust. Fernando Mendoza is one of the Heisman frontrunners, the Hoosiers defense is one of the nastiest in the country when locked in and Curt Cignetti is the best in the business at getting his team focused on the task at hand.
That spells trouble for the Terps, who have been extremely competitive in every game this season, but I fear they might be in for a long day. Malik Washington has had a terrific freshman campaign, but the receivers haven’t helped him out and the Maryland offense just has not been consistent enough to feel confident they’ll be able to really hang around in this game for four quarters. Indiana, meanwhile, tends to keep the foot on the gas through the fourth quarter, and by the end of 60 minutes in College Park, this figures to be another lopsided win for the Hoosiers. PICK: Indiana 45-13 over Maryland
Watch Indiana vs. Maryland live Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming live on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+ Premium.
Texas Tech bounced back from its first loss of the season and took out some frustration last week on poor Oklahoma State. Now they travel to the Little Apple to face a Kansas State team that suddenly looks like the team that entered the season as one of the Big 12 favorites. After a horrific start to 2025, the Wildcats offense is suddenly flying and they’ve won three of their last four in conference play, scoring 34 or more in all four of those games.
Texas Tech’s defense has been great all season, but the absence of Skyler Gill-Howard looms large against a K-State team that has been mashing opponents on the ground over the past month. On the other side of the ball, they got gutting news that QB Will Hammond is out for the season with a torn ACL. Behren Morton’s expected back after missing the last two games, but one wonders how limited he might be under center with his own injury issues.
For the first half of the season, it looked like the Red Raiders would be runaway winners of the Big 12, but this conference has a way of manufacturing late season drama and chaos. Nothing would do more to create that than a second Texas Tech loss in conference play, and I think the Wildcats will be a very live home dog this week. PICK: Kansas State 31-30 over Texas Tech
Oklahoma might be the least-trusted 6-2 team in the country right now, and they will travel to Knoxville for a prime time battle with Tennessee on Saturday night. The Sooners have had the wheels come off a bit in the past three weeks, and this Tennessee offense is not one you want to see when you’re reeling.
Last week’s defensive performance against Ole Miss was concerning for the Sooners. The Rebels moved the ball at will on Oklahoma, and if it weren’t for some head-scratching decisions in the red zone, that 34-26 score line might’ve been a whole lot worse. The Vols offense is just as capable of piling up points as the Rebels, and they’ll be watching the tape from Saturday and feeling confident they can replicate that kind of performance with Joey Aguilar and company.
The Vols were able to name their score against Kentucky last week, and their only two losses this season have come to Alabama and Georgia. While they were once a top 10 team, this Oklahoma squad feels a tier or two below the Tide and the Dawgs, and Tennessee has handled that caliber of team pretty well so far this season. There will be opportunities for John Mateer and the Sooners’ offense to put up points of their own against a Vols’ defense that gets leaky, but a shootout would benefit Tennessee overall. PICK: Tennessee 34-24 over Oklahoma
The Utes made a quarterback change last week, swapping Byrd Ficklin in for Devon Dampier and the result was a 53-7 drubbing of Colorado. We’ll find out Saturday if that performance was indicative of a major turnaround for a Utah offense that has spent much of the year stuck in first gear, or if that was just a strange one-off performance.
Ficklin was fine through the air, going 10-of-22 passing for 140 yards and two touchdowns, but he injected life into the Utes’ rushing game as they carved up the Buffaloes on the ground. Ficklin had 151 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown, while Wayshawn Parker had 10 carries for 145 yards and a TD. The challenge is repeating that performance against a good Cincinnati teams that comes in on a roll of late.
The Bearcats won’t be caught off guard the way the Buffaloes were, and we’ll see if Utah can replicate that success when an opponent has a plan in place for the running package they put in with Ficklin. Cincinnati, for its part, has been lighting it up offensively for most of this season behind a balanced offensive attack of its own. The Bearcats have scored 37 or more in four of their five Big 12 games, and while a Cincy-Utah matchup might’ve screamed defensive slugfest a few years ago, we could be in for a good ol’ fashioned Big 12 shootout after dark in Salt Lake City.
The difference here might just be homefield advantage in Rice-Eccles Stadium. Cincy hasn’t had to venture into too many hostile environments this season, and while I think they keep it close in a back-and-forth affair, Utah is a different beast at home. PICK: Utah 34-31 over Cincinnati
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