As the college season enters its final furlongs, we’re still looking for point spread streaks and those that might continue through the end of the regular season in a couple of weeks and then into the bowl season. Streaks that endure into mid-November, however, are due some extra consideration, both good and bad. That’s especially true this season as we’ve seen fewer long spread winning and losing streaks than usual.
Still, they’re out there, and it’s time to note those that have continued to endure on both the win and the lose sides, and their chances of continuing in the final weeks.
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The following all have four-game spread win streaks (the longest in the country at the moment) into this weekend.
Central Michigan
CMU was flying well under the radar into this fall, with a new HC (Matt Drinkall) in from Jeff Monken’s Army staff to take the place of Jim McElwain. Working with short rations, Drinkall steered the Chippewas to an upset win at San Jose State in the opener and has them bowl eligible with a chance to play in the MAC title game if results fall the right way next week. Drinkall has squeezed just enough out of Iowa transfer Joe Labas at QB while also splicing in plays for the mobile Angel Flores, who leads CMU in rushing. The Chips, who run the ball nearly 70% of the time, are able to control the pace in MAC games. Drinkall might deserve a few Coach of the Year votes.
Missouri State
That the Bears appear on this “hot point spread” list is considered an upset of sorts; no one was expecting anything from the Bears as they transitioned from the FCS ranks. Yet the practice of routinely dismissing these promoted sides like Missouri State is proving to be ill-advised. Like James Madison and Jacksonville State before them, the Bears are more than holding their own in their debut and are chasing the leaders in Conference USA as they’ve won an eye-opening five straight, though, in their transition year to FBS, they won’t be bowl-eligible unless there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill the postseason slots.
Credit HC Ryan Beard, who did some heavy redshirting last season in anticipation of improving depth for the step up. Even so, no one expected Missouri State to flourish as they’ve done with their 7-3 record, with onetime Minnesota transfer QB Jacob Clark, who passed for over 3,600 yards last year, adapting seamlessly back in the FBS ranks, already on 19 TD passes. Let all handicappers remember this smashing debut for the Bears and not universally dismiss any future schools looking to make the jump, as those moves aren’t made in a vacuum, with the staff and program usually having a bit of time to prepare.
North Texas
We might not be done hearing from the Mean Green, who at the moment seem the slight favorite to emerge from the Group of Five as the final team in the 12-team playoff. If that happens, HC Eric Morris may be out the door. Morris is moving up fast as the Mean Green are 9-1 and in the mix to appear in the American title game thanks in large part to an offense that’s scored more than 50 points in half of its games. The Mean Green are simply outscoring everyone and extending the lead as QB Drew Mestemaker is going to flirt with 4,000 pass yards and has already tossed 23 TDs in Morris’ offense.
Among UNT’s victims are a Washington State side that played ranked Ole Miss and Virginia to the wire. At Denton, the Cougs were run off of the field by a 59-10 count back on Sept. 13. The Mean Green are also covering recent numbers handily and have been regularly featured in our “AFS (Away from Spread) Plus” chart this season.
Texas Tech
Raving about this Red Raiders team is becoming routine. Only Ohio State has been rolling through a schedule like Texas Tech, which is dominating the rest of the Big 12 and is on course for a playoff appearance. That Joey McGuire has won games with three different QBs speaks to the depth the Red Raiders have added through the portal, where Texas Tech has had a generous NIL allotment to lavish upon transfers.
It’s more than the dollars, though. The combo of NIL dollars and shrewd GM James Blanchard is a football match made in heaven, and something Tech is glad to reward to keep poachers out of Lubbock. Never mind the embarrassingly weak non-conference slate, as Tech is bullying the Big 12 too. And note the Red Raiders have lost just once straight up and against the spread (at Arizona State), when they were bombing into the end zone on the last plays with backup QB Will Hammond at Tempe. Since that loss, not one of their next four foes has been closer than 22 points. It looks like no one is going to slow the Red Raiders until the playoff.
Vanderbilt
For a two-year run of excellence, we’re not sure we’ve ever seen anything quite like these Commodores, who are well beyond being considered a one-off as they have sustained this two year push into November, still with a chance to make the playoff. Along the way. ex-New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia continues to perform his magic. Among other things, Vandy is 16-6 vs. the spread since Pavia arrived last year and has been winning games in all different manners, including a wild OT win in the last game vs. Auburn to downing a long Hail Mary pass one foot short of the end zone vs. Missouri at Music City.
An unsung hero of this unexpected program revival in Nashville beyond HC Clark Lea is GM Barton Simmons, one of the shrewdest talent evaluators in the business who has strategically built the Commodores through the portal while also hitting on most of his high school recruits.
West Virginia
What are the Mountaineers doing here? It’s a case of late-season improvement under HC Rich Rodriguez, into his second tour of duty in Morgantown after taking some real lumps earlier in the season. The losing streak reached five at one point before a shock win at Houston, though there were signs of a revival the week before the Cougars game when pushing TCU hard, only to fall just short (but covering the +14.5 spread). Rich Rod’s read option attack has been gobbling up yards and posting lots of points at a variety of past locales, including his recent assignment at Jacksonville State, but it finally got untracked this season when freshman Scotty Fox took over the QB job and provided an upgrade from early-season starter Nicco Marchiol, who went down with a foot injury in October.
It will be a clash of four-game spread win streaks next week when facing Texas Tech in the 2025 finale, but in the Mounties’ case, we might also be seeing a preview of coming attractions in the Big 12 for next season.
Meanwhile, we can profit from losing sides, too. The longest spread losing streaks in the country belong to the following two, both interestingly from the Sun Belt.
ULM (six straight spread losses)
For ULM, it has been a dizzying decline into the abyss since September. The six-game spinout has been emphatic as well; the Warhawks haven’t been closer than a 12-point margin last weekend at home vs. South Alabama, and the offense hasn’t scored more than 21 points in the downturn, either. There’s just not enough going on with this offense that ranks a poor 124th nationally and is getting spotty work at QB from sophomore Aidan Armenta. Another telltale sign of problems is appearing high in the turnover margin charts as ULM ranks a lowly 123rd at -9 on the season.
However, expect HC Bryant Vincent to survive. Had Vincent been faring a bit better the past month, he may have been a candidate to succeed Trent Dilfer at UAB, where he used to be an assistant. The Warhawks’ collapse, however, has likely scuttled any Vincent-to-UAB talk.
Georgia State (five straight spread losses)
The Panthers have been the biggest spread loser in the country, not just the past five weeks but since last year under well-meaning but apparently overmatched HC Dell McGee, whose Panthers are only 3-15-2 vs. the line since a smashing upset last September against Vanderbilt. Keep in mind, however, that Georgia State hasn’t seemed helpless, usually within earshot into the second half before something crazy inevitably happens.
The season started on an odd note when well-traveled QB CJ Finley, now at his sixth school, showed up at practice in the week leading up to the Memphis visit and took the majority of snaps vs. the Tigers. Finley is off of his best passing game of the season, tossing for 251 yards in last week’s 30-18 loss to Marshall, another game in which the Panthers had a good look well into the second half. We’re not sure how bad Georgia State really is – the Panthers just don’t cover numbers.
As we have since mid-September, we note the weekly “point spread reversal” listing, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. Again, this is another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround, good or bad.
Point spread reversal plus (+)
The teams: Arkansas, Cal, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Navy, Nevada, Oregon, Stanford, Temple, Texas State, Western Michigan
*Through games of Nov. 15
As the season moves into its later stages, we are always curious about the above list “rediscovering” some teams that might have played to more rave reviews earlier in the season before tailing off. We’ve seen in the past, however, a late-season positive result reigniting the team and generating some momentum.
To that end, of the teams above, Iowa State and Texas State are worth a look. Especially the Cyclones, who were well up there in the polls until a midseason tailspin. An uplifting win at TCU followed by a bye could prove a trigger for Matt Campbell’s team to finish fast. Ditto for Texas State, which was one of the buzz teams in the first few weeks of the season before starting to tail off in late September, eventually reaching seven spread losses in a row. Now, wins over ULM and South Alabama, games in which G.J. Kinne’s troops will be favored, would make Texas State bowl-eligible.
Point spread reversal minus (-)
The teams: Arkansas State, Akron, Army, Coastal Carolina, Michigan State, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Southern Miss, Texas A&M
*Through games of Nov. 15
This list is actually quite a bit shorter for this week than we have seen throughout the season. At this stage of past seasons, what this weekly list has often uncovered in mid-November are first indicators of a late fade, especially for teams either playing above their head in recent weeks or squeezing out spread decisions before luck finally ran out.
Michigan State, having a pretty wretched campaign, would fit that description nicely, as the Spartans had been coming through late to cover several spreads since September. We wonder if last week’s decisive loss to Penn State simply pulls back the curtain on Sparty, which hasn’t won since Sept. 13 against Youngstown State.
Also, sticking in the Big Ten, perhaps watch Barry Odom’s Purdue, which had been covering some numbers in recent weeks and generally punching upwards all season before getting boat-raced at Washington last Saturday. The Boilermakers are off this week and only have the Old Oaken Bucket vs. No. 2 Indiana left on the schedule.
Point spread win streaks
4: Central Michigan, Missouri State, North Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
3: Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Iowa, Kentucky, Utah, UConn, Wisconsin, Western Kentucky
2: Clemson, Florida International, Fresno State, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Jacksonville State, Marshall, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion Penn State, Sam Houston, SMU, Toledo, Utah State, UL-Lafayette, Wake Forest
*Through games of Nov. 15
At this stage of the season, we’ll usually see at least a few spread streaks longer than four games but with Pitt and Southern Miss losing last week, the leaders as of last week have now dropped from the list. Some of the more surprising late-season chargers worth noting are Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Fresno State (all three covers in a row) and some of the two-in-a-rows in Florida International, New Mexico State, Oklahoma State and perhaps Sam Houston, each written off at one point of the season but obviously still swinging away as we get nearer Thanksgiving week.
Point spread losing streaks
6: ULM
5: Georgia State
4: Bowling Green, LSU, Texas; Maryland, Syracuse and UCLA are all 0-3-1 across their last four
3: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, TCU, UAB, UCF, UMass, UTEP
2: Auburn, Boise State, Cincinnati, Duke, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kansas State, Kennesaw State, La Tech, Liberty, Louisville, Memphis, Miami-Ohio, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Oregon State, San Jose State, Tennessee, Troy, Virginia Tech, Wyoming
*Through games of Nov. 15
With Texas State and Navy both winning in rousing fashion Saturday, the “leaderboard” has a different look this week with ULM now bolting into the lead with six losses in a row followed closely by Georgia State. The Warhawks have a chance to end the season with the longest spread slump of the year if they drop their next two vs. Texas State and the Ragin’ Cajuns. It’s worth noting that in many past years, the final regular season tallies often have several four and five-game spread skids, so we’d pay particular attention and consider go-againsts for the likes of Minnesota, UAB, Duke, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Mississippi State, Oregon State, San Jose State and Wyoming, each looking like they might be out of petrol beyond a late-season recovery at this stage of the campaign. A couple top 10 teams we might not have been expecting to be included above would be Indiana and Ole Miss.
Away from spread plus (+) past two decisions
- Fresno State +29.50
- Kentucky +22.75
- Georgia +21.50
- Toledo +21.00
- Utah +20.25
- SMU +19.25
- Florida International +17.25
- Sam Houston +17.25
- Wisconsin +17.25
- Hawaii +16.75
- Old Dominion +15.25
- James Madison +14.00
- Nevada +14.00
- New Mexico +14.00
- Utah State +13.75
- Coastal Carolina +13.25
- Texas Tech +13.00
- Notre Dame +12.75
- West Virginia +12.50
- UNLV +12.25
- Texas State +12.00
- Wake Forest +11.50
- Penn State +10.75
- Missouri State +10.50
- UL-Lafayette +9.75
- Central Michigan +9.50
- Florida Atlantic +9.50
- North Texas +9.50
- Oklahoma +9.50
- Eastern Michigan +8.00
- UNLV +7.75
- California +7.50
- Western Kentucky +7.50
- Missouri State +7.25
- UConn +7.25
- BYU +7.00
*Through games of Nov. 15
The above list gets a bit larger late in November as we tend to see more one-sided results. There have been some blowouts the past couple of weeks to account for some of the numbers above. Most remarkable, however, is that it accounts for Nevada’s wholly unexpected 55-10 blowout of San Jose State in Reno, the single highest one-game “AFS” number of any game this season. That it also came on the heels of the Pack’s 51-14 loss at Utah State is another curiosity. This serves as a reminder that one particularly good (or bad) result often accounts for teams in the “AFS” lists; teams consistently appearing week-to-week on these lists are worth noting. From the above list, note that repeaters from last week (not counting teams on a bye last week) include Florida International, Kentucky, Texas Tech, UConn, UNLV, Utah, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Away from spread minus (-) past two decisions
- San Jose State -35.00
- UMass -27.00
- Boise State -24.50
- Troy -21.25
- Oregon State -20.25
- App State -18.00
- Cincinnati -17.75
- Duke -17.25
- Georgia Tech -16.50
- Florida -16.00
- Colorado -15.50
- San Diego State -15.50
- Southern Miss -15.00
- Kansas State -13.75
- Mississippi State -13.50
- Middle Tennessee -13.25
- Michigan -13.00
- Louisville -11.75
- Wyoming -11.75
- Liberty -10.75
- Temple -10.00
- Auburn -9.00
- Miami-Ohio -9.00
- Kennesaw State -8.25
- ULM -8.25
- UTSA -8.25
- Tennessee -8.00
- UCF -7.75
- Memphis -7.25
- UAB -7.00
*Through games of Nov. 15
It’s no surprise San Jose State leads the “AFS Minus” list after the debacle last week in Reno, but there are some illuminating other numbers on the list. Cincinnati, Duke and Memphis, each not long ago considered to have shots at qualifying for their respective conference title games, have endured recent downturns and caused expectations to be lowered for the remainder of the season. Georgia Tech and Michigan, teams still with a chance to qualify for the 12-team playoff, have also undershot expectations in their last two starts.
Shade/Fade alert this week
Penn State
Two months ago, anyone who said James Franklin would be Virginia Tech’s HC and Drew Allar would not be taking snaps in Happy Valley, all by mid-November, would have been laughed out of the room. The tale of Franklin’s midseason dismissal and Allar’s ankle injury are well known by now, though most of the national media and football followers lost the scent (and interest) with the Nittany Lions after Franklin’s midseason ouster as losses continued to mount for interim Terry Smith. Yet Penn State really hasn’t played all that poorly in the last month and was finally rewarded with an outright win last Saturday, cruising past Michigan State 28-10. Redshirt freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has become serviceable while RB Kaytron Allen is still around and doing things like rushing for 181 yards last week against the Spartans.
In four games under Smith, the only spread loss came at top-ranked Ohio State and in retrospect, the 38-14 score is hardly embarrassing. Smith has also steered his troops to handy spread covers against both Iowa and No. 2 Indiana with a real shot to beat each. Five of Penn State’s six losses this season have come by single-score margins. Penn State can still even qualify for a bowl if it can beat Nebraska and Rutgers in its last two games.
Next game: Saturday vs. Nebraska
Lean: Shade
San Jose State
We have noted the Spartans and their abysmal showing last week at Nevada, but the season has plumbed new depths in November after being a mild disappointment earlier in the campaign. It’s more than that now, but a rewind of the San Jose season shows just how easily a team can fall into the abyss. Sometimes all it takes is one or two gut-wrenching efforts, in the Spartans’ case, never really recovering emotionally from the opening 16-14 loss at home against Central Michigan. Three weeks later, the Spartans lost another close one to Stanford. What should have been a 3-1 record coming out of September instead was 1-3, and the Spartans continued their self-destruct act at Wyoming and again at Utah State. The offense has been rather imbalanced, forcing QB Walker Eget into hero mode too often but the bottom line is the team has looked psychologically beaten for a while now and what was considered a likely Mountain West title game participant instead won’t make a bowl game.
Next game: Saturday at San Diego State
Lean: Fade
UCF
The return of Scott Frost to Orlando has turned out to be a non-story as the Golden Knights have simply picked up where they left off under Gus Malzahn before he left town for Florida State to be the Seminoles’ OC. After winning the first three games against a rather soft early-season slate, Frost’s team has lost six of seven, including some increasingly non-competitive efforts at Baylor and high-flying Texas Tech. Indiana transfer QB Tayven Jackson has been a significant disappointment, unable to emerge as a playmaker and sitting with just six TD passes, which is hardly good enough. UCF misses a bowl if it can’t win its last two against Oklahoma State and BYU and while it’s too late to find a proper QB or fix the offense this season, Frost surely knows by now what he must do for next year.
Next game: Saturday vs. Oklahoma State
Lean: Fade
Wake Forest
“Made in the Dark” was effectively unveiled at ACC Media Days as an appropriate slogan for this season’s Demon Deacons, a team nobody seemed to know much about with few returning starters and a new coach in Jake Dickert imported from the opposite end of the country at Washington State. Picked by almost every pundit to finish near the bottom of the ACC, Dickert instead warrants Coach of the Year consideration, already making Wake bowl eligible. Dickert’s Deacs are the only ACC team to beat Virginia and have won five of six with a stingy defense allowing no more than 14 points in the last four wins. Wake was tantalizingly close to a 9-1 mark considering the Deacs had leads into the second half in September vs. both NC State and Georgia Tech. Journeyman QB Robby Ashford has found a home as Dickert’s dual-threat QB, with sophomore Deshawn Purdie rotating into the lineup as needed.
It’s the most uplifting of stories in the country, with Dickert making new friends every week, especially after last Saturday when beating Bill Belichick’s North Carolina 28-12, scoring a TD on the final play only because Belichick insisted on using his final timeouts in the last seconds when hopelessly behind. That’s just the latest chapter in a glorious story written by Dickert with his Deacs this fall.
Next game: Saturday vs. Delaware
Lean: Shade
Wisconsin
No matter how these last two weeks play out, it’s been a downer of an autumn at Camp Randall with talk of HC Luke Fickell’s future the No. 1 topic in Madison and throughout the state. The Badgers are going to miss a bowl in consecutive seasons for the first time since the early Barry Alvarez years, with the offense in particular an abomination, ranking above only lowly UMass nationally. Fickell’s hope of re-establishing the Badgers smashmouth style from the Alvarez, Bret Bielema and Paul Chryst years has failed miserably, with the offense and indeed the program having lost that punishing identity. Among other shortcomings, Wisconsin can’t run. Its former bread-and-butter is now ranked 118th in rushing and with only six TDs all season on the ground.
So, this is a go-against situation, right? Not so fast. It might have been considered as such earlier in the season, but since Fickell was given a vote of confidence by AD Chris McIntosh, the Badgers haven’t played that badly and now have three spread covers on the spin, including handily inside the number against Indiana and Oregon. McIntosh also might have cut Fickell some slack because Wisconsin doesn’t have a QB after injuries knocked out both Maryland transfer Billy Edwards, Jr (the original starter) and backup Danny O’Neil. Fickell, who has used four different QBs this season, is now riding with freshman Carter Smith. Wisconsin doesn’t really have a downfield passing game, and its running game is far from the Ron Dayne days. The Badgers aren’t scoring any style points but have been able to reduce recent games into good, old-fashioned trench warfare – a style in which the Badgers can still excel – while the defense remains good enough to hold its ground.
Next game: Saturday vs. Illinois
Lean: Shade
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