College football bowl projections: Texas returns to playoff contention

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee got quite the appetizer Saturday leading into this week’s first top 25 rankings release of the season on Tuesday. Texas beating Vanderbilt and chaos across the ACC has shifted some of the narratives coming down the stretch, which makes for an anxious group of teams ahead of Tuesday’s reveal.

In our updated bowl and playoff projections heading into Week 11, sloppy Miami’s upset loss at SMU threatens the ACC’s multi-team presence in the playoff conversation. Mario Cristobal still thinks his team has a shot, but this group has warts that weren’t yet formed during their run to No. 2 this season and winning out is no guarantee. 

Georgia Tech falling from the ranks of the unbeatens at NC State was another stunner, which creates a logjam of sorts at the top of the conference alongside the following teams with one ACC loss: Louisville, Virginia, SMU, Duke and Pitt.

Clemson’s loss to Duke, the Tigers’ sixth straight home setback against Power Four competition dating back to last season, means Dabo Swinney could miss the postseason entirely for the first time in his tenure. That’s quite the disappointment for a team most had penciled in as the projected ACC champion in August. And it keeps Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils alive in the postseason race, too.

Oklahoma’s win at Tennessee was an elimination game of sorts in the SEC between two-loss teams, but the Sooners have a brutal remaining slate if the hope to get there under Brent Venables.

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

First round

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): Fifty-five points. That’s all the Buckeyes have allowed this season during this dominant eight-game start. At some point, Ryan Day’s team will be challenged, but when? He would prefer it happens before the playoff, but it may not for the reigning champions, who look like they’re on the same mission in 2025.

2. Texas A&M (projected SEC champion): For the first time this season, the Aggies have moved ahead of Alabama in the SEC’s seeding pecking order at this junction given their stance as an unbeaten. Texas A&M will be a heavy favorite its next three games before hosting Texas in a potential SEC Championship play-in game during rivalry weekend.

3. Indiana: The Hoosiers pounded the football with Kaelon Balck and Roman Hemby, who combined for a punishing 198 yards on the ground and two touchdowns to pave the way at Maryland as Indiana galloped its way to 367 yards. Indiana has the Big Ten’s most favorable schedule left and should be — barring a collapse — 12-0 entering conference championship weekend in December.

4. Alabama: If Kalen DeBoer’s squad gets to Atlanta with only one loss, we don’t see a loss to Texas A&M in the SEC title game pummeling Alabama’s ranking in the eyes of the selection committee. Two teams from the Big Ten and two from the SEC should be the first-round bye selections.

5. Georgia: There’s a game every season where a coach finds out all he needs to know about his football team. For Kirby Smart, that came against Florida after his Bulldogs fought off the upset-minded Gators in the fourth quarter. They’re in great playoff standing by running the table against Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte and Georgia Tech. Now, if Georgia loses to one of its final two SEC games and to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta on Black Friday, that’s going to create a sticky situation from a three-loss standpoint.

6. Oregon: Oregon’s hopes of winning the Big Ten for a second straight year are faint, but the bigger goal remains out front of the Ducks if they win out. An upcoming battle with USC and passing the eye test is vital for first-round home game praise.

7. BYU: One of six remaining unbeatens entering the weekend prior to Navy’s loss at North Texas, the Cougars know what they have to do to be a playoff team. Winning out locks it in, or BYU can get there by taking the Big 12 title after a host of tiebreakers in an unpredictable league at the moment. Next weekend’s game against Texas Tech should produce this league’s playoff squad … we think.

8. Ole Miss: It’s smooth sailing from this point forward for the Rebels, who could finish with 11 wins in the regular season and still not play for a conference championship due to certain tiebreakers and the two teams currently ahead of them in the league standings. That could be a blessing in disguise for Lane Kiffin, whose team would get extra rest before making their first playoff appearance.

9. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets’ stunning loss at NC State on Saturday night is part of the reason why there’s been worry associated with this team throughout ACC play. Brent Key’s squad now has to deal with several tiebreaker scenarios depending on how the final few weeks shake out. In this projection, Georgia Tech gets to the ACC Championship Game and wins as the league’s lone representative.

10. Texas: If there’s going to be a three-loss team getting to the playoff this season, we could see a “last team in” scenario from within the SEC. Perhaps that will be the Longhorns, who play two of the league’s top squads — Georgia and Texas A&M — down the stretch and will finish 9-3 overall if they’re able to split those.

11. Notre Dame: It wasn’t pretty, but the Fighting Irish accomplished the mission at Boston College and kept their pace to 10 wins — the magic number for a team that’s going to likely finish with only one win this season over top-25 competition. Another loss keeps Notre Dame out in favor of the Big 12 runner-up or potentially a 10-win Miami.

12. Memphis: Running back Frank Peasant helped the Tigers build a 28-point lead in the second quarter of Friday night’s win over Rice, assuring there would be not letdown following last week’s momentum-building win over USF. The Tigers remain the Group of Five favorite heading in Week 11 and if they win out from here, will notch their first playoff appearance.