Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 10 plays will be out later in the week and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my early thoughts on the Week 10 matchups.
Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Penn State
How bad are things going for Penn State this season? The lookahead line for this game over the summer was Ohio State -3.5. I can count on one hand how many times I’ve seen a line move 17 points in a game between two elite programs.
Since the oddsmakers hung the line for what was projected to be one of the biggest games of the year, Penn State has lost four straight, fired its coach and the Nittany Lions’ starting quarterback is out for the season. Not surprisingly, the line re-opened Ohio State -17.5 and quickly jumped to 20.5.
I don’t see this line going back towards Penn State. The Buckeyes not only have the best defense in college football, the offense is starting to roll, scoring 110 points in their last three games. My advice is to take Ohio State now laying under three touchdowns. If you prefer to live on the edge and want to bet Penn State, wait for a better number.
Bet: Ohio State -20.5
Mississippi State (+4.5) vs. Arkansas
This is a perfect example of playing a number. It’s obviously a terrible spot for Mississippi State coming off the overtime loss to Texas after blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. I get it, but Arkansas has been in good spots a couple of times this season and lost, including last week at home against a floundering Auburn squad. Now they are laying 4.5 points?
The Razorbacks have lost six straight games. Five of those losses have come by nine points or less where Arkansas led in the fourth quarter. This team keeps finding ways to lose, mainly because its defense can’t stop anyone. The Razorbacks have allowed 40.1 points during their six-game losing streak.
Again, I get the bad spot angle. I write a college football betting spots article every Thursday. However, “spots’ are just one part of the equation. I actually make Mississippi State a slight favorite in this matchup and expect the number to go down. I would play the Bulldogs at +4.5 if the line is still available.
Bet: Mississippi State +4.5
Miami (-11.5) vs. SMU
SMU almost stole a road win last week in a game where Wake Forest fumbled inside the 5-yard-line twice, including in the final two minutes when the Demon Deacons were about to take the lead. However, Wake Forest got the ball back and kicked a last-second field goal to win 13-12.
I haven’t been impressed with the Mustangs all season and lean Miami here. Having said that, there is no reason to rush and bet the Hurricanes at 11.5. The line actually dropped from 12.5 while I was writing this article and I expect it to drop even further throughout the week.
Pro bettors love a good double-digit home dog and while I do like Miami, I make the Hurricanes -10, so the opening line was a bit high. Look for the number to drop a bit more to at least 10.5. The question is, will it fall below 10? That is when I would consider betting the Canes.
If you like the home dog in this matchup, I recommend betting it early. I think 11.5 is the best line you will get and there is some value taking the Mustangs at that number.
Wait: Miami -9.5 or better
Add Comment