Every Thursday during the college football season, I’ll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week.
A great example of a “spot” play is Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results, and injuries.
You can bet college football games this week at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Just for clarification, I’ll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play.
Here are three strong betting spots for Week 9:
Iowa State Cyclones -2.5 vs. BYU Cougars
BYU is in one of the toughest spots of the season on Saturday. The Cougars are coming off two hard-fought, emotional wins after beating Arizona in overtime and upsetting rival Utah at home. Now BYU has to face a rested Iowa State squad in one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12.
The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the reeling Cyclones. Iowa State lost both starting cornerbacks for the season then dropped two games in a row to Cincinnati and Colorado. While I do believe BYU is the better overall team, late October is when bettors can really take advantage of these situational spots. I think we have one here, and that’s why we see 5-2 Iowa State favored over 7-0 BYU.
The other thing to watch here is I expect Iowa State to get its running game going and have success on the ground. BYU ranks 53rd against the run, which looks impressive on paper. However, in their last three games against Utah, Arizona and West Virginia, the Cougars allowed an average of 183 rushing yards. All three teams ran for 150+ yards against BYU.
I like the Cyclones to take care of business at home and would lay under a field goal.
South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 at Alabama Crimson Tide
This is an interesting spot for Alabama. The Crimson Tide are coming off four straight games against ranked teams with wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee. Now Alabama travels to struggling South Carolina before a bye week with LSU on deck.
This is by far the Crimson Tide’s worst spot of the season. If Alabama is going to get caught overlooking an opponent, it will likely be on Saturday. The problem for the Gamecocks right now is the offense can’t score points. Then again, when a team hires Mike Shula to be its offensive coordinator, that is an inevitable outcome. Shula’s predictable play calling has led to South Carolina averaging just 11 points versus SEC opponents not named Kentucky.
Things won’t get any easier on Saturday against Alabama’s defense. However, Shane Beamer excels in this situation. For whatever reason, his teams perform better in the bigger underdog role. South Carolina is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of over nine points the last two seasons, including a 27-25 loss at Alabama as 21-point dogs.
As we get deeper into October, betting certain spots can be profitable. This looks like one of them to me. It’s really tough for college kids to get up for games five weeks in a row. There is no question that Alabama is the better team here, but South Carolina is getting the Tide at the perfect time right before their bye week.
Arkansas Razorbacks -1 vs. Auburn Tigers
As we approach Halloween, one thing I look for are teams with losing records that are still playing hard. Arkansas is a perfect example. The Razorbacks are a disappointing 2-5 this season, although they have lost four games by six points or less.
Since Bobby Petrino took over for the fired Sam Pittman, Arkansas lost by three points to ranked teams Tennessee and Texas A&M while averaging 36.5 points per game. The problem for the Razorbacks has been a defense that can’t stop anyone, and that has led to the close losses.
Another hard luck team this season is Auburn. The Tigers have lost four straight to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Missouri. All four games were close, but unlike Arkansas, the Tigers averaged just 13 points in the losses.
The difference for me entering this matchup is Arkansas already fired its coach and the kids are still playing hard. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze is under a lot of pressure at Auburn right now, and this is a team that thought it was in position to compete for a playoff spot. Instead, the Tigers are a disappointing 3-4. I wonder if the players will be able to get up for a 2-5 Arkansas team on the road this week.
I trust Taylen Green and Arkansas’ offense more in this game, and outside of the Notre Dame debacle, the Hogs had a chance to win every game this season. If a couple of bounces went their way, the Razorbacks could be sitting at 6-1 right now. I think the Hogs finally get a late stop and win a close game at home.
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