It’s an embarrassment of storyline and star-power riches in college hoops this season. Take a good look around and you’ll see possibilities covering the canvas. Florida is coming off a national championship and theoretically has the roster to chase a repeat. Ever-excellent Houston could be just as good after falling to UF in that national title game in the waning seconds and has all the motivation in the universe to atone for that defeat. UConn and Dan Hurley look poised to vault back to the elite tier following last season’s melodramas. Purdue could be the best team of them all, led by maybe the most valuable player of them all, Braden Smith.
Rick Pitino and St. John’s are the preseason favorites in the Big East. Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybantsa headline a freshman class that might be the strongest in college basketball in a decade. The SEC will try to come close to matching last season’s record-shattering run of 14 NCAA Tournament teams, including two that made the Final Four. But the league will have to square up with the Big Ten and Big 12, which look built to be stronger than a year ago.
Coaching legends still strut the sidelines, even with high-profile departures of title-winning coaches in recent years. We’ve got still got Izzo and Self and Calipari and Barnes, in addition to the likes of Pitino, Hurley, Kelvin Sampson and more. Louisville is going to be good again. Big-brand teams like Arizona, Michigan, Illinois and UCLA could have Final Four fates. Even a league like the A-10 seems set to rattle back to some relevancy.
I. JUST. CAN. NOT. WAIT. FOR. THE. SEASON. TO. START!
With opening day barely a week away, it’s time to ratchet up the anticipation and take a long tour through all the teams I expect to matter most over the next five months. My labor of love for the devout, devoted college basketball fan: I’m thrilled to once again share my annual preseason master list of the Top 100 And 1 teams in men’s college basketball.
2025-26 CBS Sports Preseason All-America Teams: Purdue, Big Ten lead way with college basketball’s top players
Gary Parrish
1. Houston
At No. 1 I’m taking the program that has mastered finishing No. 2. The Cougars unintentionally authored one of the more bizarre and heartbreaking losses in NCAA history when Emanuel Sharp failed to get a shot off on the final possession of the national title game against Florida, securing the Cougars as No. 2 in the tournament — and No. 2 at KenPom.com for a fourth straight season. There is probably no coach better wired to be motivated by such a gutting defeat (remember how Houston knocked off Duke two days prior? The irony is piercing) than Kelvin Sampson.
The Coogs lost key pieces, (J’Wan Roberts, L.J. Cryer, Ja’Vier Francis), but this roster could have more talent. Sharp, Milos Uzan and JoJo Tugler are the core three back, hungry to avenge. They’ll be joined by one of the best recruits in program history, freshman 6-10 stretch big Chris Cenac Jr., in addition to 6-6 wing Isiah Harwell and four-star point guard Kingston Flemings. It’s the No. 2 class, per 247, behind Duke. Houston’s never had this many good-to-great freshmen blended with so many proven juniors and seniors who are Houston Guys. Maybe it takes a few weeks to find a groove; last year’s UH team started 4-3, then lost two games the next four months. If Sampson, 70, is going to win a national championship, this may well be his last great chance to do it.
2. Purdue
Matt Painter is building up a Hall of Fame résumé. He’ll lock it up if he can get Purdue a national title. This five-year span the Boilermakers are in represents the best half-decade run in program history. Purdue is 116-31 the past four seasons with multiple league titles, No. 1 seeds, a national championship game appearance and two-time national player of the year in Zach Edey.
And here comes another potential NPOY. Braden Smith is our preseason honoree in what could be a crowded race for the nation’s best player. If Smith hits on the preseason hype, delivers another Big Ten title, gets Purdue to the top line on Selection Sunday and sets the NCAA all-time assists record in the process, Purdue should be as good as anyone. Smith’s skills are magnified by playing alongside a quality 2-guard (Fletcher Loyer, 13.8 ppg) and All American-level forward (Trey Kaufmann-Renn, who led Purdue at 20.1 ppg in ’24-25). The Boilermakers are preseason No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history because of it.
Look for South Dakota State forward transfer Oscar Cluff to waste little time adjusting to Big Ten life. Israeli guard Omer Mayer could also be among the best imports in college hoops, too. Yeah, there’s a lot of pressure here, but Painter and the program are used to it and almost certainly will be one of the four or five teams that garner the most coverage and commentary from November into March … and quite possibly April.
Nobody’s higher on Kentucky than me. There are big expectations in Year 2 for Mark Pope, to be sure. Kentucky was borderline terrific in his first season, winning eight games against teams ranked in the top 15, tying a D-I record. The Wildcats made the Sweet 16 with a 3 next to their name in the Big Bracket. He’s not even 18 months into the job, but Pope does seem to be the perfect pick to replace John Calipari.
This season, I think Kentucky jumps from Final Four hopeful to national title contender. Preseason SEC POY Otega Oweh is reason No. 1. Oweh is one of the best two-way players in the country; if he maximizes his ability and Kentucky is a top-five team, he’ll vie with the very best in the sport for NPOY. Oweh has Brandon Garrison, Collin Chandler and Trent Noah back; those three will all see their stats swell from a season ago.
UK is working with what’s believed to be sport’s biggest NIL budget in 2025-26, with on report setting the number north of $20 million. Here’s who’s new: Pitt transfer Jaland Lowe (nursing a shoulder injury but I’m told he’ll be good in short order) is going to start at point. He might be the most valuable transfer in the SEC. If not him, then my pick is Jayden Quaintance, the monster power forward who’s not yet been cleared from an ACL injury but is hoping to be back at some point before we flip to January. Quaintance, when fully healthy, can be one of the best defenders in the country. Look for Alabama transfer Mouhamed Dioubate to start at the 5 to start the season — and he’s no defensive slouch either. Kentucky also brought on Denzel Aberdeen from Florida, whose defense and timely playmaking bolsters the enterprise. Kentucky should be 10-deep.
I’m high on UK because they bring back an All American-level player in Oweh, have obviously and significantly upgraded on defense and should still have the shooting and playmaking to be a top-15 offense (they were No. 10 in efficiency in 2024-25). The best team money can buy? We’ll soon find out.
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A 19-win jump for the Wolverines in Year 1 under Dusty May has set the table for a huge 2025-26 in Ann Arbor. I love how the pieces are poised to fuse. We’ll start not with the big portal get (hold on) but instead, the core that May kept on campus. Roddy Gayle Jr. (9.8 ppg), Nimari Burnett (9.4 ppg), Will Tschetter (6.4 ppg) and L.J. Cason (4.3 ppg) aren’t top-tier college hoops talents, but they are the kind of guys who institute winning and will be vital in the carryover from Year 1 to 2. They are example-setters, the reason why Michigan was able to bring on some big names. Now, let’s talk about those names.
Yaxel Lendeborg was a stat stuffer at UAB and nearly went to the NBA, but instead, the top-ranked transfer — and CBS Sports’ preseason Transfer of the Year — is playing one season with the Maize and Blue. Lendeborg will try to match his 26 double-doubles (best in NCAA) from last season. He was also the only guy with at least 60 blocks and steals. He won’t need to be Superman, though. UCLA center Aday Mara should pop in a new scheme, and I’m intrigued to see what point guard Elliot Cadeau does in new surroundings after some ups and downs at UNC. Morez Johnson (Illinois) is another quality piece in the fray, adding a dash of drama to the Big Ten race. And there’s still one more player to touch on: Trey McKenney is one of the best in-state prospects to commit to Michigan in some time. He’ll get some run at the point and, I think, wind up being the best frosh in the conference.
5. Duke
Last season’s 35-4 monster squad lost in the Final Four in a choke-like fashion, but despite the disastrous gag against Houston, Duke was comfortably the No. 1 team at KenPom and EvanMiya.com. It had the NBA’s Nos. 1, 4, 10, 33 and 49 picks in its starting lineup. Cooper Flagg was one of the five best freshmen of this century, joining the likes of Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Zion Williamson and Carmelo Anthony. Some might put him as high as No. 2. But he’s gone, as is the rest of the starting lineup. Can Duke reload again and be No. 1 seed material? I say yes.
Get ready for a whole lot of Cameron Boozer, a fleixble power forward whose track record of winning over the past four years at the high school level might be unmatched by any prospect this century. Boozer is a different player than Flagg, but his impact on winning can come close to matching Flagg’s generational talent. Even if this team is going to be just a slight step down from statistically the second-best team of the past 20 years (no national championship aside), Duke should still clearly be the ACC’s best. To ensure that, though, sophomore Isaiah Evans will need to make a jump and go from averaging seven points to north of 12 or 13. Caleb Foster will start at the point, backed up by Cayden Boozer, who isn’t the one-and-done prospect like his brother.
There are more in the mix here (Patrick Ngongba, Nik Khamenia), but one name carrying intrigue is Italian/Senegalese wing Dame Sarr, an 18-year-old small forward who was in FC Barcelona’s system the past three years and could be anything from Duke’s sixth most important player to its second-best guy by March.
6. Connecticut
A high-profile regression to the mean played out in a turbulent, humbling five-month marathon for. Dan Hurley’s program in 2024-25. We were all reminded us how hard it is for college basketball teams to stay elite, particularly with national championship aspirations, three years in a row. Connecticut went 24-11, earned a No. 8 seed and was knocked from the mountaintop. (For more on this, check out my column from earlier this week on Hurley and his atonement for bad behavior.)
But I don’t see a repeat of that performance. EvanMiya.com rates UConn with four “elite” 3-point shooters, matching Purdue, Oklahoma and Virginia for the most in college hoops. The best of them should be junior 2-man Solo Ball, who sank 99 of his 239 treys last season (41.4%) and is equipped to be one of the best give-you-a-boost shooters in the country. He’ll be set up by Georgia transfer Silas Demary, a tough and big point guard who will ease the concerns UConn faced with its backcourt a season ago. Those two will play with freshman Braylon Mullins, who won’t face the pressure of having to be as good as Liam McNeeley a season ago but should nevertheless find a nice role by league play. Alex Karaban’s back for his senior season as well. Literally no team in the country has a player with his winning pedigree and the ups and downs to endear him to a crucial leadership role. Tarris Reed Jr. is also back and could grow into a top-10 big in the sport. I like the Huskies to take the Big East for the third time in four years.
A program that was the preseason No. 1 team the past two seasons — only to have its worst two seasons in more than 30 years — has been understandably knocked down by most ahead of this November. Not here.
Whereas you’ll find KU placed in the teens in human polls and computer metrics before a game has been played, I’m going to predict that Bill Self Isn’t Going Out Like That. Last year (a first round loss as a No. 7 seed after taking 13 losses) was the nadir for a program with expectations as high as any in the sport. For 2025-26, I’m forecasting a surge back into the national-title-contender convo thanks to having maybe the No. 1 pick in the draft and maybe the best player in America. He’s a player who Self says is the most impressive inbound freshman he’s ever had. And he’s going to have the ball in his hands as much as maybe anyone in the country.
Darryn Peterson could be special.
The 18-year-old combo guard could make Self’s 23rd season with the Jayhawks a borderline great one. As a high schooler, Peterson was an elite defender, great passer, good with shot selection and had A-level athleticism to round out his profile. He’ll link up with Flory Bidunga (breakout season incoming for the big man) and Elmarko Jackson, who sat out all of 2024-25 with an injury. Transfer-wise, Melvin Council Jr. is a slender 2-man who should start. Loyola Chicago transfer Jayden Dawson and Illinois transfer Tre White are also going to find plenty of minutes in the rotation. Watch for Paul Mbiya, who’ll battle for big-man minutes behind Bidunga. Mbiya is a proven center who averaged 15 and 12 in the top French pro league last season. The pieces are here, it’s a huge roster flip, but I’ll take Self carrying Kansas back to a prominent perch in the sport.
I’ve got three Big 12 teams in my top eight, all of which should have the personnel to win a national championship. In Tucson, Tommy Lloyd’s group says goodbye to Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Henri Veesaar, Trey Townsend AND Carter Bryant. It’s a lot to lose from a top-four seed that won 24 games and reached the Sweet 16. Thankfully, the most critical pieces coming back are all above-average defenders: Jaden Bradley, Tobe Awaka, Motiejus Krivas and Anthony Dell’Orso is a really good core to work with. Bradley and Awaka could be top-20 defenders nationally, while Krivas should be strong as ever after going down with an injury last December. And those four are bringing back 35 points per game, too, which will combine with two freshmen who will be huge contributors.
Koa Peat is a top-10 prospect in the Class of ’25, a power forward with a great motor, good defensive instincts and one-and-done possibilities. On some nights, Peat may be Zona’s MVP. On others, it could be the fidgety Brayden Burries, a five-star guard who should be a beautiful fit in Lloyd’s schemes. But it all starts with Bradley, who I think is on the short-short list of best/most complete players to not get preseason All-America honors.
9. Illinois
A super-solid returning core combined with a quality freshman class and some high-potential international players makes me a big buyer on Illinois as a Big Ten and Final Four contender. You’ll see, hear and read plenty in the coming months about the Euro infusion that’s reached Champaign. Brad Underwood is rostering players from Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia, in addition to guys who hail from intriguing lands such as Saginaw, Michigan and Shawnee, Kansas. I think the Illini are dripping with potential, a belief backed by the fact that Underwood’s had single-digit NCAA tourney teams six years in a row. In two of those seasons, he guided Illinois into the top two in the Big Ten. Why can’t this group get there?
Back for the Illini are Tomislav Ivisic (13.0 ppg), Kylan Boswell (12.3 ppg) and Ben Humrichous (7.6 ppg). Ty Rodgers missed out last year due to injury, so he’ll be back in the fold, too. Ivisic could be All-Big Ten First Team in March. Joining him is his twin brother, Zvonimir, who spent the past two seasons playing for John Calipari. There’s hope for Andrej Stojakovic, an 18 per game guy at Cal last season, to boost his profile. Yet there’s another “ic” guy who I think gets Illinois into the top 10: 6-2 Mihailo Petrovic was a standout playing for KK Mega Basket in the Adriatic League: 14.2 points, 7.3 assists on 49% shooting. He’s a quick study, as is freshman Keaton Wagler, apparently, who has made a lot of noise with his adaptation this fall. Should be a must-watch band of hoopers.
10. St. John’s
I’ve got the Red Storm 10th, but they’re fifth in the preseason AP Top 25 — the program’s highest October ranking in history. SJU deserves it. Rick Pitino coached the Johnnies to a 31-5 mark a season ago. Now, it ended badly with an anemic offensive display in a 75-66 second round loss in the NCAA Tournament, but that whimper aside, St. John’s had its best season in 25 years. And you can make the case that this year’s roster is better. Big man Zuby Ejiofor (14.7 ppg) will be in the mix as the Big East best player due to his all-league defense and the fact he averaged more offensive rebounds (4.4 per game) than anyone last season. He’s the only big piece back, but check the portal class: Bryce Hopkins, Oziyah Sellers, Dillon Mitchell, Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon. A lot of skill diversity in that group.
Hopkins has battled injuries, but keep in mind at one point he was a top-five player in the Big East. Jackson didn’t click the way he’d hoped at UNC and will now try to leap to the NBA as Pitino’s combo guard option. Sellers and Sanon played in obscurity last season, but both are two-way support pieces who will fit in well with Pitino’s scheme. Mitchell’s been in college a long time but has a ceiling as one of the best rim protectors in the sport if he can maximize his potential. The one major question is who runs the point and how the offense flows from that. There is no true 1 on this team (Idaho State transfer Dylan Darling is going to get some time there, but we’ll see if he can handle the jump in competition; Sellers will make the first pass at it on opening night), but if any coach can work his way around that, it’s Pitino.
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11. Florida
I’m a tad lower on Florida than most others will be, but bear in mind there will be a few teams in the top 10 who fall well short of that standing. (Look at what’s happened this year in college football as the most recent proof of what’s inevitable.) I still have UF second in the SEC — but I think a lot of folks have downplayed Walter Clayton Jr. (the third-best player in the nation last year!), Will Richard (who’s apparently going to look like he was drafted 15 spots too late) and Alijah Martin (on-ball defensive menace) meant to this team. Replacing all of their production and facets in the backcourt won’t happen with this new group.
The bigs are back, though; Florida probably has the best frontcourt in the nation. The names you know who are still in Gainesville: Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten. BEEF. The problem? Handlogten and Chinyelu can’t play on the floor together (neither shoots from beyond 10 feet) and in general I wonder how the bigs will combo with two high-profile portal guards: Boogie Fland (via Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (via Princeton) need to help replace the near-54 points per game provided by Clayton, Martin, Richard and Denzel Aberdeen. The preseason AP No. 3 ranking doesn’t bother me whatsoever … I just lean toward a little drift back from a season ago.
Was it really just a couple of years ago when Louisville had the worst program in high-major basketball and was enduring the nadir of its 100-plus-year existence? How quickly things have changed. Pat Kelsey engineered the biggest turnaround of ’24-25, taking Louisville from an eight-win program to going 27-8 and earning a No. 8 seed. This year’s team should be even better, even though U of L lost more than 75% of its production.
The player inspiring the most optimism is Mikel Brown Jr., a slender 6-4 freshman who was outstanding in FIBA World Cup play this summer and figures to be a top-five frosh in the sport. He’ll play with, and off of, Xavier transfer Ryan Conwell, a bona fide flamethrower in Kelsey’s offense. (Conwell had a 62.4 true shooting percentage last season.) Look for Louisville to be one of the best shooting teams in America: Kelsey brought on Isaac McKneely (42.1 3-pt%) from Virginia and Adrian Wooley (42.2 3-pt%) from Kennesaw State to join up with returnees J’Vonne Hadley and Khani Rooths. There’s also reinforcements from Kobe Rodgers and Aly Khalifa, two guys who didn’t play last year but will factor into a 10-deep rotation. That Nov. 11 game against Kentucky can’t get here fast enough. It’s great to be excited about Louisville hoops again.
13. Alabama
Tide fans, do you realize that, since 2021, 14 out of the 16 programs in the SEC have undergone a coaching change? Your school is one of only two to not endure a switch. (Tennessee is the other.) Nate Oats has built NCAA Tournament teams with Sweet 16 runs or deeper in four of the past five years, all with seeds between No. 1-6. Things have truly never been better for Tuscaloosa hoops. He should again have a team near the top of the SEC with a good number next to its name on Selection Sunday. The biggest reason? My colleague Kyle Boone rates Alabama’s backcourt No. 1 in the country.
That backcourt is led by Labaron Philon, whose decision to pull out of the draft process late and return to Bama was massive; I’d probably have the Tide 12-14 spots lower if Philon wasn’t on the roster. He’s lightning quick and should be a headache to scheme against. Real All-American potential there. Philon returns alongside familiar faces Aden Holloway and Latrell Wrightsell, giving the Tide cozy chemistry in its three-guard attack and, yep, a case as the best guard trio in the nation. Aiden Sherrell, a 6-10 big man who started to see things click in March, is on board for his sophomore season as well. Reinforcements arrived in the form of Miami transfer Jalil Bethea (a former top-10 high school recruit) and 7-footer Noah Williamson, who was nearly an 18-and-8 guy at Bucknell.
After 51-20 through two campaigns in Lubbock, Grant McCasland enters his first season as coach with serious expectations. Tech has objectively been a top-15 program, big-picture, since he arrived and is poised to stay in that layer in Year 3. Keep in mind, this team probably should have made the Final Four. Tech went 28-9, got a 3-seed and lost in the Elite Eight back in March, blowing it late vs. eventual champ Florida. Now TTU, for the first time, has a preseason All-American. JT Toppin passed on potential first-round NBA money to take a big paycheck and be one of the faces of college hoops.
Toppin is coming off the second-best season by any Tech player in history: 18.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 55.4% from the field. The Toppin story is also the Tech story. Throughout the sport, TTU is regarded as one of the five biggest spenders this year, with a budget believed to be well north of $12 million in basketball alone. And yet, the roster isn’t loaded with well-known names. Few schools have committed the way TTU has. Christian Anderson put up 10.6 points last season for TTU and he’s back for more as well; he was great in international play over the summer. Look for UNCG guard Donovan Atwell to play a ton at shooting guard, Washington State transfer LeJuan Watts to start at the 3 and VCU big Luke Bamgboye to be a terrific defensive presence.
Kevin Young’s team will be so much more than headliner freshman wing AJ Dybantsa, though Dybantsa alone will make this the most must-watch BYU team ever (sorry, Danny Ainge). We got our first glimpse of the Brockton, Massachusetts, product in BYU’s exhibition loss at Nebraska. Dybantsa casually went for 30 points while looking like he was in third gear most of the night. Buckle up, because he’s going to be asked, and want to, do a little bit of everything in Provo.
For all of Dybantsa’s talent, the Cougars make my top 15 because they have a top-10 backcourt. It starts with senior Richie Saunders, who was good for 16.5 points per game a season ago and will play with Baylor transfer Rob Wright III, one of the best sophomores in America. This offense is going to hum. Dybantsa, Wright and Saunders should combine to put up 50-plus points on average and give BYU one of the best scoring trios in college hoops. We might see this team average close to 90 per game, and it won’t be a sieve defensively. Power forward/defensive menace Keba Keita will also be back to give the Cougars some intimidation in the paint. Young got BYU to the Sweet 16 with a 26-win season in Year 1. That was a freebie. Now the real expectations set in.
I was lower on ISU than the rest of the media heading into last season — and that was a mistake. I won’t make that misstep again, even if there are some big losses. ISU has been good every year under TJ Otzelberger and we’ll see more of the same, including a few Quad 1A wins that ensure another quality NCAA Tournament seed.
Fortunately, one of the better point guards in America calls Ames home, which is why I’ve got ISU tucked inside my top 20. Tamin Lipsey, whose two-way dependability will be the biggest facet of Otzelberger’s program in 2025-26, has All-American talent. He’s been battling injury but is set to start on opening night. When you’ve got a top-five point guard and 53% of your minutes back (tops in the Big 12, comfortably ahead of No. 2 Houston at 43.1, per Torvik), that’s a prescription for 25-plus wins. Joshua Jefferson (13.0 ppg) and Milan Momcilovic (11.5) are the other two vets who comprise the nucleus, with Jefferson having some emerging NBA tools. I’m also watching to see if Blake Buchanan’s move from Virginia leads to a role wherein he’s a top-tier Big 12 glue guy.
17. Tennessee
Some major changes to this roster, but with Rick Barnes having coached a top-15 KenPom team in six of the past eight seasons (and the only off year coming in 2019-20), it’d be foolish to slot the Vols outside of the top 20 going into November. The best pieces back, however, haven’t proven their offensive value, so I don’t have UT being top-three in the SEC. Felix Okpara (7.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg) isn’t a go-get-you-a-bucket player, and I’d make the case he fell short of expectations last season. J.P. Estrella was held back by injuries, but his year to emerge was always going to be 2025-26, so watch for him to develop into a valuable starter.
The playmaker arriving via the portal is Ja’Kobi Gillespie, last seen making numerous appearances in winning situations at Maryland. Gillespie can (should?) lead the Vols in scoring, but if that doesn’t happen it will be bacuse freshman Nate Ament emerges as the rare youngin’ to play an MVP role on a Barnes-coached team. Ament is a top-five prospect in the class of 2025 and projects as a top-10 NBA pick next June. He can switch between playing the 3 or 4 depending at the college level. I’m most interested to see how Ament’s grown from a silky and easygoing prospect 16 months ago. If he’s put on some real muscle and is ready to play VolBall, UT will again slot into the top four in the Southeastern Conference.
18. UCLA
Hoo, I tell you, the top 20 this season looks especially deep heading into Week 1. You can build out a case for the Bruins to be top-12 status, after all. Mick Cronin’s style combined with Donovan Dent’s speed and savviness might make for one of the better team-ups between first-time coach-and-player combos this season. Dent, a 6-footer, is both fast and great at playing through contact (he had 31 And-1s last season, per CBB Analytics). His averages at New Mexico: 20.4 points, 6.4 assists, 2.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 41% 3-point shooter.
Dent can absolutely fly and Cronin’s never had someone like him before; he might be the most valuable transfer in 2025-26. The fact he joins a team with really nice returning pieces like Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark makes UCLA fun Big Ten dark horse. UCLA’s depth is up for debate but the starting five’s viability is not. And one more bonus: We won’t hear any gripes from Cronin about travel this year either: UCLA literally does not play a game east of Los Angeles in the nonconference.
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19. Arkansas
I’m higher on John Calipari’s team now than I was three months ago. The more I took a look at the SEC, I bought into the notion Calipari’s going to have a more consistent Year 2 than Year 1. Arkansas returned a lot of studs (DJ Wagner, Karter Knox, Trevon Brazile and Billy Richmond is the strongest quartet of returnees in the SEC, objectively) and has some more talent inbound, of course. The Hogs will still take a couple of vexing losses, and there’s no guarantee that Wagner makes The Jump or Brazile for sure ever scrapes a ceiling that’s seemed within reach for three years now. But the pieces are here.
The latest one-and-doner for Cal is Darius Acuff Jr., who I think will be in that top six or seven of the best frosh in the country — and the best in the SEC, beating out Ament at Tennessee. I love his pairing with Wagner. I think this team is going to have some scorch potential (in bursts) on offense, which wasn’t the case for about 90% of last season. And on defense, I’d be surprised if Arkansas is ever below a B overall in its efficiency numbers. Too long, too athletic and Calipari knows his teams have to be stubborn on that end to be considered in the SEC’s upper crust.
20. Michigan State
With four good pieces (Coen Carr, Jeremy Fears Jr., Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper) back from last season’s squad that earned a No. 2 seed, a top-10 status in the metrics and the honor of being one of Tom Izzo’s favorite teams to coach of the past 15 years, there’s no way I’m dipping any further than No. 20 with the Spartans. Fears — who’s as tough as any guy in the Big Ten — is poised to have a terrific year as a backcourt leader. Carr is still almost certainly the best dunker in the college game, Kohler may make the biggest jump of any player in the B1G. Losing Jase Richardson after just one year is big (I’d have MSU top-10 if he was still around), but Sparty always finds a way.
There’s also freshman Cam Ward to keep an eye on. (Kaleb Glenn, an FAU transfer, had high hopes but may not return from injury this season.) This group probably can’t meet the ceiling of last season’s team, but Izzo and Co. will easily be in the NCAA Tournament for a 28th straight time and picking off a variety of gutty wins along the way.
The Bulldogs’ final season in the WCC (they head to the new-look Pac-12 in 2026-27) should feature the 23rd regular-season conference championship under Mark Few. The Zags bring back Graham Ike at center, a 17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg guy who will be considered among the 20-or-so best players heading into the season. Braden Huff is also back, and finally — finally — Gonzaga should get to see Steele Venters take his shot. Venters has missed the past two years to injury, so his impact and value is TBD. Another debut after a redshirt year is coming for Braeden Smith, the former Colgate guard who was among the best mid-major points over a two-year stretch from 2021-23. He’ll run the show for the Zags.
In the portal, Gonzaga brought on Adam Miller from Arizona State, Jalen Warley from FSU and Tyon Grant-Foster from Grand Canyon, who’s still not been cleared for one more season of play and whose eligibility case is the latest test of the NCAA’s moral compass. This probably won’t be a deep team, and without Grant-Foster I wouldn’t log it as a Final Four contender, but I do expect GU to thrive and put an exclamation point on its WCC era.
Strangely, the Mountain West failed to produce a top-30 team in predictive metrics last season (while having five in the 41-60 range). In the seven seasons prior, they were producing at least one top 25-quality team. In this final year of the Mountain West as we know it (SDSU and other key players are moving to the new Pac-12 in 2026), I expect the conference to send at least three teams to the NCAAs again, led by San Diego State’s surge back to the top of the league. The Aztecs have made the tournament 12 times since 2010, and it’d be 13 if we had a 2020 tournament.
Brian Dutcher brings back probably the best player in the league, senior wing Miles Byrd, who’ll be flanked by Reese Dixon-Waters, Magoon Gwath (the best sophomore in the conference and a freak on D) and B.J. Davis, all of whom played big roles on last year’s 11-seed. Sean Newman Jr. comes over from Louisiana Tech, where he averaged 7.9 assists. I’m not sure if the ‘Tecs will have long-range capability, but the defensive layout again looks fabulous and the replacement pieces suggest a one- or two-notch upgrade from what we saw in ’24-25.
Dana Altman — who, after being the subject of retirement rumors the past two Marches, sounds like he’s got at least two more years in the tank — has never not won at least 20 games with Oregon. Beyond that, he’s never had a below-.500 season in more than 30 years of head coaching experience. I’m a little higher on O than most others in national media. That’s because Nate Bittle, Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans all return and all should be guaranteed to improve markedly in their final season together. Shelstad’s dealing with a broken right hand that will prevent him from being fully healthy and able to play to start the season, but this is a top-six or -seven team in the Big Ten to me once Shelstad’s a full-go, so that’s why I put the Ducks 23rd. Oregon brought on Sean Stewart from Ohio State and mid-major bucket-getter TK Simpkins from Elon as well. Ducks will dance again in 2026, no doubt.
With approximately $14 million spent on the roster, Hubert Davis enters November with more tension on his job than just about any coach … except maybe Bill Belichick. UNC is worthy of top 25 inclusion because the talent compilation practically insists upon it. Being a top-10 spender in 2025, but having two of the past four seasons end as flops, makes Davis’ Year 5 the pivotal one for his future at his alma mater. Keep in mind, this team is the first with zero players who have ties to when Roy Williams was the coach.
Davis brings back Seth Trimble as a crucial defensive 2-guard. Speaking of defense, look for the Heels’ to be improved from last season. Five-star freshman Caleb Wilson and Arizona center transfer Henri Veesaar will stiffen North Carolina’s aptitude for ball-stopping. After whiffing a year ago in the frontcourt, UNC won’t be outsized this year against most teams, which will be a sight for sore eyes in Chapel Hill. At point guard, Kyan Evans comes by way of Colorado State. I’m a little wary about his handling of that spot, but he did have some good moments in helping the Rams to one of their better seasons, and he can shoot it in streaks. Fleshing out the starting five is Luka Bogavac, who comes over from the Adriatic League and might be the special ingredient to keep Carolina punching with Duke and Louisville for ACC supremacy.
I don’t think you’ll find anyone else as high on Marquette as me. We’ll see if my faith in Shaka Smart’s unique approach to roster fashioning pays off, because I can tell you a lot of people in and around that program are intrigued to see how this goes over the next five months. Marquette, again, is not bringing in a transfer. The only other places among the 360-ish schools in D-I where this is also true are military academies or Ivy/Patriot League programs, where scholarships aren’t available. To do this amid the most portal-frenzied era ever is an act of hubris, defiance, trust and faith. I’m riveted.
Chase Ross will be the next star guard for the Golden Eagles now that Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell have graduated. I like his chemistry along with Ben Gold and Royce Parham, but beyond that, it’s going to have to be an old-school approach. Marquette has five freshmen on the roster and other players who didn’t crack more than five points per game. Fading MU in 2025-26 is an easy choice; I’ll go the other way and say it still works and that Smart’s team has a single-digit NCAA seed for a fifth straight year.
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26. Auburn
Since we haven’t gotten to the games yet, I don’t know if I’ve actually digested the fact that Auburn will do this thing without Bruce Pearl as its coach. His son, Steven, is now running the show, which understandably knocks the Tigers down just a bit from where they’d otherwise be. The heir needs to show he’s got the chutzpah to run a program from the top the way Bruce did for so many years.
At least Tahaad Pettiford’s back. The peppy lefty seriously flirted with going to the NBA, but now that he’s readying for a sophomore season, he could become one of the best watches in the sport. He’ll probably wind up carrying a huge load, with Johni Broome (the second-best player in college basketball last season behind Cooper Flagg) having left, in addition to mainstays Dylan Cardwell, Denver Jones, Chaney Johnson and Miles Kelly no longer roaming about campus. Be on the lookout for the two dudes with similar names to step in and strike quick: UCF transfer Keyshawn Hall led the Big 12 at 18.8 points per game last season; Mississippi State transfer KeShawn Murphy will step in to Broome’s spot. D-II transfer Elyjah Freeman will team up with Pettiford in an attempt to stay in the top third in the SEC.
27. Creighton
Only one team has to move on from a four-time conference defensive player of the year. It’s going to be weird to turn on a Creighton game and not see Ryan Kalkbrenner posted in the paint. Steven Ashworth and Jamiya Neal are also gone. I can’t fade too far on Creighton, though, not when coaches this summer voted Greg McDermott as the third-best X’s-and-O’s mind in the game. Big Mac will prop up returnees Jackson McAndrew, Jasen Green, Isaac Traudt and Fedor Zugic. That quartet is going to mesh alongside a duo of Iowa transfers: Owen Freeman and Josh Dix. Freeman’s returning from an ACL injury and won’t be available until close to midway through the season, it sounds like. Nik Graves (Charlotte transfer) also figures to be a reliable option, particularly from deep. It would be no surprise if this Creighton group is the most 3-point-happy of any in the Big East; the Jays were top-11 nationally in 3-point rate the past two years.
28. Oklahoma
Taking a big swing on Porter Moser’s Sooners. Few staffs at the high-major level seemingly got more budget-friendly bargains in the portal than Oklahoma (which, to be clear, still spent more than $5 million). The Sooners retain enough from last year’s No. 9 seed. Even losing top-10 pick Jeremiah Fears after one season probably won’t ding the team’s profile. Fears was a fun talent but played minimal defense, which shouldn’t be a theme on this year’s squad. Xzayvier Brown (by way of St. Joe’s) is one of the better portal adds in the SEC; I think he can be a top-15 player in the league if deployed correctly. Brown will play alongside 3-point sniper Nijel Pack (STILL in the sport!), Derrion Reid (Alabama) and Tae Davis (Notre Dame), all top-100 transfers who will give OU more depth and power than last season. Moser’s going to see a big jump on defense from Mohamed Wague in the middle, and with that, potentially his best defensive team in five seasons in Norman.
29. Virginia
Plenty has been said and written about the fit between institution and coach here. Ryan Odom had formative years growing up when his father, Dave, was on staff in Charlottesville. Beyond the connections to Virginia, I like Odom’s chances in the big picture — and in Year 1 — because his record backs up the forecast. He’s won 64% of his games at three mid-major schools (and at D-II Lenoir Rhyne), totaling 227 wins. Odom also got more than $10 million to play with right away, which should equate to a huge bounce-back after the Tony Bennett hangover season was a 15-17 bust.
The Wahoos are expected by some to be in the top third of the ACC. I think they get there thanks to a basketful of transfers who can all hit the deep ball, with most of them averaging double digits a season ago. Names to know, with 3-point accuracy in parentheses: Malik Thomas (39% at San Francisco), Sam Lewis (44.4% at Toledo), Jacari White (40% at North Dakota State), Devin Tillis (39% at UC Irvine), Dallin Hall (35.3%) at BYU. And then there’s Thijs de Ridder, a 6-8, 230-pound forward from Belgium who could unlock all of it. He enters college hoops after logging 33 games in Liga ACB in the past year — and was a 39.1% 3-point shooter. Virginia’s going to look a LOT different, stylistically, from the Bennettball era.
30. Iowa
A lot of my teams between 26-40 are coached by first-year guys. Similar to Virginia, I’m going to take a fairly large swing and predict Iowa is immediately good under new ownership. Hello, 44-year-old Ben McCollum, who went 31-4 at Drake and won an NCAA tourney game in his first season coaching in D-I. His rep was so good, Indiana seriously looked into him, as did West Virginia … but Iowa was the not-so-secret frontrunner for the Hawkeye State native.
McCollum has won 82% of his games in his career, with four D-II national titles. He’s bringing Bennett Stirtz with him. The slender point guard is a CBS Sports preseason All-American and could vie with Braden Smith for the nation’s best assist rate. A lot of Drake guys transferred up, and keep in mind many of these guys began with McCollum at D-II Northwest Missouri State just a few years ago. This pick could totally blow up in my face … or look brilliant!
31. Saint Mary’s
There are certain coaches where you have to abide by the track record. Randy Bennett is one such coach. Saint Mary’s loses point guard Augustas Marciulionis, lumberjack Mitchell Saxen, Luke Barrett and Jordan Ross. Those four combined for more than half the team’s production. It’s a ton. But Paulius Murauskas, Mikey Lewis and Harry Wessels are loyal servants in the School of Randy, ready to keep SMC in the NCAA Tournament picture. There’s a couple of portal guys (Tony Duckett seems primed to pop) and a couple freshmen whose roles are still being ironed out, but Bennett’s simply too good for me to put the Gaels any lower at this point. SMC’s KenPom average finish the past 10 years: 30th. (And that’s including the COVID-year 75th finish that kills the average.) I’ll ride with Bennett’s boys again and feel no uneasiness placing them this high after a 29-6 run in 2024-25.
32. Wisconsin
I’ve got Badgers junior guard John Blackwell making the Big Ten First Team in March. He put up 15.8 points last season while being a semi-understudy to the fabulous transfer redemption story that was John Tonje. Now this is Blackwell’s team. The only other Badger back who averaged more than two points per game is forward Nolan Winter (9.4). The new face who I think will get Wisconsin safely into the NCAA Tournament is a guy with Final Four experience: San Diego State transfer Nick Boyd leveled up after being an off-the-bench guy on FAU’s Cinderella team in 2022-23. Bringing him and Andrew Rohde from Virginia should keep Wisconsin safely in the top half of the Big Ten.
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33. Ohio State
If you’ve been following along this month with all of our preseason coverage (and I trust you have; no outlet is more creative, enthusiastic, reliable or thorough as our group), you saw we released our All-America teams earlier this week. I’m here to disclose my biggest gripe: Bruce Thornton didn’t make the cut. He was a Second Team choice on my ballot. The OSU senior lead guard averaged 17.7 points, 4.6 assists, 3.4 rebounds, shot 42.2% from 3-point range, 85.3% from the line and 50.1% from the field. He’s an outright stud and will carry OSU into the NCAAs in 2026 after the Buckeyes missed out in ’25. Thornton has Devin Royal (13.7 ppg) returning and John Mobley Jr., who averaged 13 points and could become a top-10 3-point torcher over the next five months. Buckeyes have too much talent to squander. A great buy-low team.
34. Texas
Texas has made one Final Four since 1947, the 2003 run under Rick Barnes. Rodney Terry took UT to the NCAA Tournament in all three seasons he ran the program, but it went from 29 wins, a 2-seed and the Elite Eight; to 21 wins, a 7-seed and the second round; to 19 wins, an 11-seed and not clearing the First Four. The coach who beat Terry? Yep: Sean Miller. And now the 56-year-old Miller is the coach in Austin. He’s won 487 games in his career, opting to bail on Xavier — after it gave him a new lease on life following his firing from Arizona — because he believes winning a national title in his new place is possible, unlike the old place. Whether that’s true, we’ll find out in the years to come.
In Year 1, Miller has a team that figures to make the NCAAs … but maybe it’ll be flirting with that First Four status. The Horns retained Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope, a good duo worth 20-plus points per night, in addition to a couple more guys who opted to stay on with the new regime. The highest-ceiling transfer is likely Simeon Wilcher, who left Rick Pitino and St. John’s for a chance to expand his skillset. This will be the final stop of Miller’s college career. Will it be his best?
35. NC State
The Wolfpack’s fanbase feels like it has reason for pride and some braggadocio now that 42-year-old Will Wade is in command of the program. The last time State went into a season with this much on-the-table optimism was probably 2012-13, which was Mark Gottfried’s second season (team included T.J. Warren, CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown; it wound up a No. 8 seed). How about this for a plot twist: It’s State — not Duke or North Carolina or anyone else in the league — that claims the preseason ACC player of the year. Texas Tech transfer Darrion Williams (15.1 ppg) is the tip of the spear of a portal class that also includes Tre Holloman (Michigan State), Quadir Copeland (McNeese), Ven-Allen Lubin (UNC) and Terrance Arceneaux (Houston).
Wade has one of the best track records of quick fixes, so it’s fair to forecast State in the NCAA Tournament conversation right away. This is Wade’s fifth job, following his most recent two-year success at McNeese, which came after LSU, VCU and Chattanooga. In eight of his previous 11 seasons, Wade has been in charge of an NCAA Tournament team.
36. Ole Miss
There’s just no way the SEC can come close to matching last season’s record-setting greatness. My rankings reflect this not just with where I have Mississippi (ninth overall in the pecking order), but the teams you’ll see soon hereafter. Chris Beard’s club brings a quality forward in Malik Dia (10.8 ppg) back but no one else who averaged better than two points on a 24-win team that earned a 6-seed. The Rebels can rely on depth, though. This might be Beard’s deepest team ever, and I think you’ll see that reflected in the first month of the season, when the starting rotation could feature seven or eight guys over a seven-, eight-game span. The name that’s emerged early is Kentucky transfer Travis Perry, who’s going to be one of the breakout guys in the SEC, but he’ll be uplifted by the likes of Kansas transfer AJ Storr (who desperately needs a reset) and Louisville transfer James Scott, an elite lob threat.
37. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs again feature one of the must-see players in the sport, 5-9 (if that) Josh Hubbard, who averaged 18.9 points last season and hopefully can be a 20-per-game guy in 2025-26. You can make the case that relying on a small lead guard for so much offense can hamper other facets of an attack. But, if I can present a counterpoint: diminutive guards who can hoist and haul up the points is one of the best selling points of college basketball. Here’s to hoping Hubbard is so good, he makes a push for SEC Player of the Year. Hubbard lost more than 60 points per game in support from last season’s team. Jayden Epps, by way of Georgetown, will flank him in the backcourt. And I like the Achor Achor add (K-State). That’s a perfect fit for Chris Jans’ system.
38. Baylor
An absolute enigma entering the season. Baylor won 20 games and was a No. 9 seed a year ago … yet lost every single player to either graduation or transfer. This typically happens with a team that undergoes a coaching change, not a program with its best coach in history and with a national title not so far in the rearview. What gives? The allure of the portal, essentially. Scott Drew’s had tougher coaching jobs, for sure, but none quite like this one. He managed to bring in another top-10 recruit, however. Look for freshman guard Tounde Yessoufou to have plenty of opportunities to match or exceed any first-year player in the conference (including Dybantsa and Peterson) in usage rate. The Bears’ most promising transfers seem to be Obi Agbim (better than 17 points/game at Wyoming) and Michael Rataj (16.9 ppg with Oregon State). I also like the Dan Skillings Jr. add. Skillings was a connective piece at Cincinnati and is a great scheme fit for Drew’s system. BU’s range could be as good as a No. 5 seed and as bad as not even sniffing the tournament. Oh, and if you’d like another regular reminder of your mortality, there’s a freshman in Waco by the name of Andre Iguodala Jr.
39. Memphis
Another team where everybody left. Penny Hardaway’s trying to get through even just a six-month run without any drama, but that seems impossible with this program. The Tigers have won the American auto bid in two of the past three seasons, but they can’t seem to handle the prospect of prosperity that well. Still, it’s Memphis: this should be the best team in the conference. The transfer intake is too long to list, so I’ll point out three guys I have high hopes for in keeping the Tigers as a top-40 outfit: K-State transfer Dug McDaniel at the point; McNeese transfer Sincere Parker as the starting shooting guard; and former Kentucky/Ohio State center Aaron Bradshaw to find a home that empowers him to make good on his five-star reputation coming out of high school.
40. Indiana
Mike Woodson is out after four years. In comes Darian DeVries, who won 169 games at Drake and West Virginia. The intriguing thing is DeVries nearly coached in this state two years ago: he was the No. 2 choice at Notre Dame behind Micah Shrewsberry. Can he be the guy to get Indiana back to blue blood status? Will be a heavy lift and it won’t come immediately, even if the Hoosiers were one of the biggest spenders in the portal, easily clearing $10 million in the spring. The new faces are Lamar Wilkerson (20.5 ppg at Sam Houston), Tucker DeVries (14.9 at West Virginia before sitting out most of the season with a shoulder issue), Reed Bailey (18.8 ppg with Davidson), Nick Dorn (15.2 ppg with Elon) and Conor Enright (glue guy at DePaul).
The roster doesn’t seem to have the names to justify all the money spent, but that’s all speculation until we actually get going. The Hoosiers are in a weird spot where the football program can win a national title and the men’s basketball team is just hoping to be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament.
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41. SMU
If you’re not paying close enough attention, SMU in the bubble mix might float right over your head. Andy Enfield lacked high-end wins in Year 1, but the Ponies did win 24 games and finish tied for fourth in the 18-team, down ACC. There’s plenty to work with here; a 2026 NCAA Tournament appearance is quite possible. The Mustangs will look to achieve that by relying on a guy named “Boopie,” who is Exhibit No. 4,298 why College Basketball is The Best. Boopie Miller averaged 13.2 points a season ago and may well jump that to north of 17/game by March. He’ll play off big man Samet Yigitogulu and senior backcourt mate B.J. Edwards. If Virginia can threaten to win the ACC in football, maybe SMU can do the same in hoops?
42. Missouri
Dennis Gates returns more than 40% of his minutes, including Mark Mitchell, Anthony Robinson and Trent Pierce. I’ve got the Tigers 11th in the SEC pecking order. Mistake? It’s possible, but the reason I wound up slotting them seven or eight spots lower than in my initial pass at the top 101 is due to the transfer class. Jayden Stone scored more than 20/game at Detroit … but that was two seasons ago, so we’ll see how he is coming off the redshirt year. Sebastian Mack (UCLA) and Shawn Phillips Jr. (Arizona State) are TBD with their roles and impact. Mizzou has been good-bad-good in Gates’ three seasons. I don’t think this is a bad team by any stretch — no shot — but need to see how the pieces fit in an SEC that’s still going to be ridiculous in the top eight.
43. Boise State
After three straight NCAA Tournaments, the Broncos missed last season, though they managed to finish a respectable 26-11. Leon Rice has coached this program since 2010 and averaged 19.8 wins per year; there were a pair of 13-win campaigns, but otherwise Boise’s hit the 20-plus-win mark in the other 11 seasons. I’m leaning in on a big year despite some dings: Tyson Degenhart (who felt like he was there eight seasons), O’Mar Stanley and Alvaro Cardenas left. A pair of 6-7 upperclassmen are back in Javan Buchanan and Andrew Meadow, and they’ll be propped up by UCLA transfer Dylan Andrew (huge get) and Drew Fielder, who is a 6-10 incomer from Georgetown that was a puzzle piece-type addition for Rice’s crew. Also, I think guard Pearson Carmichael will be one of the breakout guys in the Mountain West — and I think the Broncos squeak into the Big Dance for the fourth time in five years.
44. Vanderbilt
Mark Byington went from James Madison to Vanderbilt and immediately got the Commodores into the NCAAs, which amounted to one of the better coaching jobs in 2024-25, a season with no shortage of impressive first-year résumés. Some in the basketball world regard Byington as an upper-tier coaching mind, and if he can overshoot my Vandy prediction here by 20 slots, prepare to hear Byington’s name in the rumor mill on the coaching carousel in 2026 and 2027. A year ago, Byington scheduled a weak non-con, but went 12-1 and it set his team up with the confidence necessary to have a shot in the SEC. This year’s November-December slate is a notch tougher, but with transfers Mike James (from Louisville), Duke Miles (from Oklahoma) and Frankie Collins (from TCU), Vandy should be able to weather some early storms. Tyler Nickel (10.4 ppg) and Devin McGlockton (10.3 ppg) returning to the fold should keep this team competitive nationally.
45. USC
I think USC is the toughest team to peg of all 18 in the Big Ten. I could see the Trojans being good enough to finish sixth or bad enough to wind up 14th. What we know: Eric Musselman’s team will be playing from behind, as five-star prospect Alijah Arenas is rehabbing a knee injury and won’t know until at least mid-January whether or not he’ll play this season. Absent Arenas, USC brings back Terrance Williams on the wing … and no one else. The portal pickups were highlighted by Maryland’s Rodney Rice and Auburn’s Chad Baker-Mazara, who to be fair, could be huge additions. There are also players from Youngstown State, UNC Asheville, Dartmouth, Robert Morris, Utah and Samford on the roster. USC won 17 games last season and wasn’t a top-50 team. I think it nudges up … but it feels like an unpredictable next five months.
46. Dayton
This is a blatant contrarian take. Dayton is not the top pick by humans or predictive metrics in the A-10. The Flyers might have a bigger rebuild in 2025 than after the Obi Toppin 2019-20 season or the Da’Ron Holmes 2023-24 season — and maybe even any of the high-end Archie Miller teams from the mid-2010s. It’s fair to think UD slips to third, fourth, fifth or sixth in that league. But I’ll fly with the Flyers given their track record of 21-plus wins in five of the previous six seasons, the only exception being the COVID-shortened 2020-21 experiment. My reason for staying true starts with the point guard, Javon Bennett, coming back, a 5-10 waterbug who will pair with a 7-1 Frenchman (Amael L’Etang) that will make them a tough scout even with an overall talent dip. The defensive profile should still be upper-tier in the league, thanks to inbound transfers from Georgia, NC State, Iona and Rutgers who should all keep Dayton a stubborn team on that end of the floor.
47. Utah State
Jerrod Calhoun’s agent received some calls in last year’s cycle, but thankfully USU is not dealing with yet another coaching change after Calhoun taking the job in 2024 represented the fifth head coach in Logan since 2018. More good news, Aggie fans: I think your team is going to be in contention to get an NCAA Tournament bid. And honestly, I’ve got USU at 47 here, but a top-35 season is within the realm of possibility thanks to Mason Falslev (15.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.7 apg) returning to the fold. I think Falslev can play his way into being the Mountain West POY. Utah State, overall, brings back nearly 40 points per game from last season, a healthy amount for a mid-major in the portal era. Calhoun ain’t messin’ around, either: Garry Clark is in the mix after being a 15 point-per-game guy at A&M Corpus-Christi. Transfers from Butler (Kolby King), Vanderbilt (MJ Collins Jr.) and Utah (Zach Keller) will fortify a justifiable squad in the Beehive State.
48. Clemson
The Tigers went 18-2 in the ACC last season. If you aren’t a Clemson fan, you probably didn’t even realize this; to be fair, the ACC was stinky. Brad Brownell’s team won 27 games, then got booted in the first round of the NCAAs by McNeese — the only high-major to lose to a low-major in last year’s tourney. With lead guard Chase Hunter, forward Ian Schieffelin and center Viktor Lahkin all moving on (though Schieffelin’s actually playing football for Clemson in 2025), the Tigers are almost certainly taking a big step back. Dylan Hunter is the one guy back who played legit minutes a season ago. Nevada transfer Nick Davidson — a moldable forward — should find a lot of room to thrive here, but questions linger on the defensive end. Is it a robust enough roster to still be top-five in the ACC? Brownell’s done a nice job in the past five years, so a top-50 ranking is bowing to his recent track record.
49. Cincinnati
One of the strangest stories of the past six months is the dismissal of Jizzle James from Cincinnati. James was, by all accounts, a quality teammate through his first two seasons with the Bearcats. But something changed in the spring, and by July, coach Wes Miller had to sever ties. James would’ve been the team’s projected best player under ideal circumstances, so UC as a result gets knocked down a bit in my rankings without him. UC also lost Dillon Mitchell, Dan Skillings Jr., Simas Likosius, Aziz Bandaogo … and most of the roster from one of 2024-25’s most disappointing teams. Miller needs to make the NCAA Tournament to hold on to his job. Day Day Thomas (10.2 ppg) is the only player back who contributed a season ago and he should be a really nice player over the next five months. Cincinnati’s most promising additions are Jalen Celestine from Baylor, Baba Miller from FAU (previously at FSU), Sincere Harris from West Virginia and Kerr Kriisa, who got hurt last fall and never factored in at Kentucky.
50. Kansas State
I had the Wildcats 24th a year ago, and I was wrong just like everyone else who thought one of the biggest 2024 spenders in the portal would cruise to the NCAA Tournament. Jerome Tang’s team was a bust, finishing 16-17. For ’25-26, I have K-State missing the Big Dance again, but I think the team gets to 20 wins and is much more competent. PJ Haggerty is here after one season at Memphis. Maybe he’ll lead the country in scoring? Maybe he’s actually going to be so awesome, K-State outshoots this prediction. Hopes are high in the Little Apple. Tang kept a few bit players, but this is a hefty roster flip, including three international prospects whose production I’m interested to track. Whereas the offense should be a lot better (K-State was 125th in efficiency a season ago), I think the defense sags.
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51. Maryland
What a violent swing for the Terps. This team finished 10th at KenPom, won 27 games and made the Sweet 16 … but underwent 100% turnover after Kevin Willard tied himself into knots and then sliced his way out of College Park in the process. So, hello, Buzz Williams, who was rumored the past two years to be itching again to switch jobs. The 53-year-old has 373 wins to his name and 12 NCAA Tournament victories (both much more than Willard), providing some short-term optimism for Terps fans. Provided with a healthy NIL budget, Williams and his staff brought Pharrel Payne and Solomon Washington along from A&M, in addition to Myles Rice (10/game at Indiana, but has potential to pop), Isaiah Watts (Washington State) and Elijah Saunders (10.4 ppg at Virginia). Freshman to know: Darius Adams, a five-star prospect who’s a slender 6-5 2-guard and will get some real run right away.
52. Saint Louis
The Billikens didn’t immediately upend the A-10 in Josh Schertz’s first season, but they will have a shot at taking the league in 2026. SLU and Schertz get one more year from Robbie Avila, the guileful and goggled 6-10 centerpiece who put up 17.3 points and 6.9 boards per game in an injury-affected season. Avila got some preseason All-American buzz last October, then fell well short of that, but I think he turns in a terrific send-off senior season. The Bills get Avila and his frontcourt mate, Kalu Anya, back in the fold, and they’ll have reinforcement with Quinnipiac transfer Paul Otieno, giving SLU the top frontcourt in the A-10. (SLU should have the best size in the league, in fact.) Guard-wise, Xavier transfer Trey Green is poised to run the point — one of eight players on this roster with a track record of shooting at least 35% from beyond the arc.
53. Villanova
The Kyle Neptune era was unfortunately a huge miss. Three seasons, with each campaign falling well short of NCAA Tournament quality. In: Kevin Willard, who’s won 335 times in his career across Maryland, Seton Hall and Iona. He’s turned the page after one of the uglier coach-and-school divorces in the sport in the past 15 years. Nova wasn’t one of the richest schools in the portal this year, but it ranked near the top in the Big East, so here’s what to know: Eric Dixon, one of the best players in program history, is gone. As is most of the roster, though Tyler Perkins (6.3 ppg) did stick around. Willard brought on journeyman Devin Askew, whose career began in 2020 at Kentucky and includes stops at Texas, Cal and Long Beach State. Yes, he still has eligibility. Bryce Lindsay (James Madison) and Duke Brennan (Grand Canyon) are a pair of mid-major guys who will have to make a leap and prove their skill to justify Villanova’s preseason projection of being a top-six team in the Big East. The freshman to know is Acaden Lewis, who may become the most productive frosh in the conference due to how much Willard leans on his lefty combo guard.
54. Georgia
The Dawgs’ 10-year NCAA Tournament drought was snapped last March when UGA earned a No. 9 seed and navigated its way through a hellish SEC schedule. Mike White’s team was promptly kicked out of the Dance with a 21-point defeat to Gonzaga, but at least the arrow was going in the right direction. Alas, as you can see with where I’ve got the team here, I think a regression is inbound. Blue Cain is back, and he’ll probably jump from 9.6 points to 12 or 13 per game, but you can’t make the case this team is more talented than last year’s. Asa Newell went one-and-done to the NBA and Silas Demary took a pay jump to go and try and win a national title at UConn. White’s hoping Jeremiah Wilkinson’s 15.1 ppg production at Cal can transfer seamlessly into the SEC. Wilkinson is a lead guard and will have to thrive to give Georgia a shot at top-10 status in the SEC. The 6-9 Kanon Catchings left BYU for Athens and is a projected starter as well.
55. Notre Dame
Think this is where we see Micah Shrewsberry’s coaching acumen making a big difference in roster quality vs. overall finish. Shrews’ team was 118th at KenPom in 2024, 98th last season and not forecasted by the computers to be in the realm I’m placing it. A jump into the top 70 should be the likely outcome, with a top-60 finish possible thanks to one of the ACC’s best still in town. Markus Burton is a dark horse ACC POY pick. The junior lead guard averaged 21.3 points in 2024-25. That number might not increase because Braeden Shrewsberry (14.0 ppg) will boost and freshman Jalen Haralson could be the best non-Duke/UNC newbie in the ACC. That league cannot/will not be as mediocre as last season. It’ll take a few teams making some northward vaults. I love ND as one of those teams.
56. Texas A&M
We had 14 high-major coaching changes in March and April; here’s another. After spending his first 41 years on planet earth calling the state of Alabama home, Bucky McMillan left Samford for College Station and is going to bring his BuckyBall system to the SEC. McMillan’s teams have traditionally pressed like madmen. I’m interested to see if the philosophy is fully brought over now that he’s competing at the highest level in college hoops. McMillan’s key portal additions are Pop Isaacs — who joined only after defecting from Houston (Isaacs pledged to UH after leaving Creighton in the spring) once Milos Uzan opted out of the NBA Draft — and former Indiana big Mackenzie Mgbako. Rylen Griffen’s fizzle-out at Kansas also led to him coming here, and he’ll be flanked in the backcourt by NC State transfer Marcus Hill and North Alabama point guard Jacari Lane (17.3 ppg). No expectations in Year 1 from the outside in, so let’s just toss a bunch of interesting players together and see how it all cooks.
57. Georgetown
“Find me in Year 3” was what Ed Cooley told me a couple of years back when we were discussing the reality of the rebuild at Georgetown and what it was going to take to turn that battleship around. Well, this is Year 3. Cooley’s record at the school is 27-39. I don’t need to see an NCAA Tournament team, but I do need to see a team that is in the bubble conversation entering February. Georgetown has the pieces to move up a tier in the Big East. Malik Mack is back to run the offense, supported by four role players who should grow into a stronger unit. Georgetown doesn’t have a single freshman on its roster, the only high-major (maybe the only school in the country?) where that is the case. Transfers KJ Lewis (Arizona), Langston Love (Baylor) and Vincent Iwuchukwu (St. John’s) clearly make this team streets ahead of the past two. Lewis might be a top-10 defender in America.
58. TCU
The Horned Frogs were background noise in the greater landscape of college hoops last year. A 16-16 campaign, no All-Big 12 talent, just … there. But with the exception of 2019-21 (COVID-affected, keep in mind), Jamie Dixon doesn’t do back-to-back subpar seasons. So while I don’t think the Horned Frogs will be dancing in 2026, I do think they’ll be above .500 and battling for the top half of the Big 12. The unknown is who winds up becoming the No. 1 guy. Will it be a returnee (David Punch, Micah Robinson) or one of the transfers (Utah Valley’s Tanner Toolson, Providence’s Jayden Pierre)?
59. Nebraska
Fred Hoiberg is fortunate to bring back Connor Essegian, the thread that connects all in the offense. Still, Essegian averaged just 10.7 points a season ago. He’ll team up with Rienk Mast, who sat out ’24-25 with a knee injury. Mast was a volcano of 3s in NU’s exhibition vs. BYU, an initial positive sign that the Cornhuskers will dodge the Big Ten basement. Getting Mast back, plus Braden Frager off a redshirt year should provide Nebraska with enough experience and camaraderie to play a spoiler on some nights in the league. The transfer class is very much to-be-determined as far as impact goes. Hoiberg’s had a top-50 team the past two seasons. This group shouldn’t be too far off, I wouldn’t think.
60. LSU
It’s a hot-seat season for Matt McMahon. The Bayou Bengals are 45-53 in McMahon’s three seasons and will need to make the Big Dance in order for him to hang on in Baton Rouge. I don’t project LSU to be that good, though I think there’s a healthy chance this is McMahon’s best team. One double-digit scorer returns: junior PF Jalen Reed (11.1 ppg). Incoming? UNLV’s Dedan Thomas Jr., Omaha’s Marquel Sutton and Mississippi State’s Michael Nwoko. This group collectively will have more offensive prowess than the three previous teams under McMahon. The portal haul doesn’t rank among the seven or eight most dangerous in the SEC, but I do like how the staff was able to bring in guys who are proven bucket-getters. If it’s going to be a bumpy season, at least try to win games in the 80s.
61. Butler
Thad Matta has not hit yet at Butler, but you can bank on this team — in his fourth season — being the best yet. The Bulldogs haven’t had a squad as deep or athletic overall as what was built through, coincidentally enough, the best NIL budget Matta was given. Junior G Finley Bizack (10.3) is the best returner, but look out for Michael Ajayi (who didn’t hit his ceiling at Gonzaga) and Jalen Jackson (a creative scorer at Purdue Fort Wayne) to be two of the better transfers in the Big East. Still not an NCAA tourney team, but BU will rack up more wins this season vs. NCAA tourney-level competition than in any year since 2020.
62. West Virginia
Can WVU maneuver itself into an era of stability in the back half of the decade? The Mountaineers have their fourth coach in as many years — the only high-major currently enduring a revolving door of leadership four seasons running. The new guy in town is 45-year-old Ross Hodge, who comes by way of North Texas after years of building up a reputation as one of the elite defensive minds in the game. Interesting, then, that one of his key transfers is Treysen Eaglestaff, who was the only player to go for 50-plus in a game last season when he dropped 51 while at North Dakota. WVU’s roster is crammed with a lot of up-transfer mid-major guys (like Honor Huff, who was good for 15/game at Chattanooga and will be a crucial component), so we’ll get an immediate look at if Hodge’s scheme is immediately adaptable at the highest level with a litany of players who have never played in the NCAA Tournament.
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63. Wake Forest
The Deacs don’t appear to have the 1-10 heft of the past three seasons’ worth of teams — and none of those qualified for the NCAA Tournament. But this group is going to pick off some good wins this year because there’s enough speed, athleticism and defensive upside to make Wake an ACC spoiler. Myles Colvin is looking for a huge jump after being unsatisfied with his role at Purdue, while Mekhi Mason (Washington), Cooper Schwieger (Valpo) and Nate Calmese (Washington State) should all be double-digit scorers. If Wake can be vastly improved from 3 (it only made 28.5% last season, putrid) and get above 35% beyond the arc as a team, this ranking will prove too low.
64. Northwestern
In polling nearly 100 coaches this summer, we asked who the best X-and-O minds in college hoops were. Chris Collins received a few votes in that poll, which means I’m probably slotting Northwestern 5-10 spots too low. The Wildcats bring back small forward Nick Martinelli and his 20.5 points per night. K.J. Windham and Jordan Clayton also return from a team that went 17-16 but lost four toss-up Big Ten games (defeated by five points or fewer). NU’s going to be out-athleted and oversized on most nights, but Collins has had only two truly bad teams in the past 10 seasons. This group should similarly land well clear of the Big Ten cellar while falling some notches short of NCAA Tournament qualification.
65. Providence
We’ve got a roster makeover in Rhode Island. Kim English went from narrowly missing the NCAAs in his first season to only managing 12 victories last year. The Friars bring back five scholarship players, but their top options should be new faces into the fold. Vanderbilt transfer Jason Edwards (17.0 ppg and PC’s best player) and UCF transfer Jaylin Sellers will be a fun duo to watch. Another intriguing player is Stefan Vaaks, who’s getting some initial curiosities from the NBA ranks, but the 6-7 Estonian will likely ease into the season before finding his fit by the start of league play.
66. Virginia Tech
This will be a bounce-back season, almost guaranteed, for the Hokies. Mike Young’s group was a mess last year. A 13-19 record, a sub-160 KenPom ranking and a backcourt rife with issues. Was it an outright purge? No. Tobi Lawal, Jaden Schutt and Tyler Johnson, most notably, are still involved — and I think all three make jumps to get Virginia Tech far clear of the ACC basement. The Hokies also brought on Greek forward Neoklis Avdalas, one of the best foreign-born players coming into college hoops. Will it be enough to save Mike Young’s job? Possibly, but at least VT should compete in the lower-middle of a better ACC.
67. Pittsburgh
Jeff Capel has one NCAA Tournament trip in seven seasons. He probably needs to get No. 2 in 2026 to stay on here. The Panthers don’t project as a tournament-worthy squad, alas. The offense will probably be a work-in-progress heading into December, even when the wins vs. buy-game teams come. Jaland Lowe was so solid last season, but now he’ll shine for Kentucky, not Pitt. Capel’s going to have to find different ways by the week to grind to some victories, unless I’m misfiring entirely here and his portal pickups were quietly some of the best bargain-bin hauls in the ACC.
68. George Washington
How often do you get a potential NCAA Tournament team from a mid-major whose best player is 6-11 or taller? Chris Caputo has the luxury of building his offense around his center. Senior Rafael Castro is a preseason A-10 First Teamer after averaging 14 points and nine snags a year ago. His counterweight on the offensive end is 6-2 grad transfer Tre Dinkins, who was a ball-mover at Duquesne. GW has its most loaded roster in more than a decade, and it’s because of teams like this (in addition to a few more from the conference you’ll see shortly) that make me believe the Atlantic 10 will have a shot as the best mid-major league in 2025-26.
69. Washington
The Huskies are getting some love as a Big Ten team that will finish top-half of the league, but I’m not sold yet. Part of that is due to an important injury: Transfer Jacob Ognacevic, the ASUN player of the year out of Lipscomb, is recovering from foot surgery and won’t be available until January. At point guard, freshman J.J. Mandaquit projects as an all-league player by his junior season, but he’ll probably need some time to adapt. Who is the alpha in Seattle? Likely to be Wesley Yates III, but Zoom Diallo is back for his sophomore season and they’ll team up with USC transfer Desmond Claude, who took something of a journey after his noisy decision to go one-and-done at USC. The Big Ten is going to be a bear. I think it winds up as the No. 1 league in college hoops. Coach Danny Sprinkle won 13 games last season. That gets to at least 15, but it’ll be hard-fought. UW takes the real jump a year from now.
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70. Miami
The Hurricanes are coached by Jai Lucas, a first-year coach who comes to Coral Gables after spending the past couple of years under Jon Scheyer at Duke. Miami probably won’t be a top-half-of-the-ACC team in metrics but it will be damn close in talent. The two most proven D-I players are former Indiana forward Malik Reneau and former Michigan/Auburn bruising guard Tre Donaldson. That’s a nice place to start. Shelton Henderson is the five-star prospect who will be in the starting 5 from Day 1 while playing alongside Ernest Udeh Jr., who’s a defense-first big who’s also the commanding voice on the floor for the U.
71. Oklahoma State
Five double-digit-scoring mid-major players have transferred in, spotlighted by Anthony Roy, who led the country at 25.7 points per game a season ago for lowly Green Bay (but he only played 11 games, so he didn’t qualify as the sport’s leader in ppg). Steve Lutz can do more with less and he’ll get to try this method out for a second straight season in Stillwater. The Cowboys haven’t been able to compete monetarily with a lot of other programs in the Big 12, putting them a couple of tiers below the big boys. To offset this, Lutz recruited for and will again try to win with pace — hoping to push Oklahoma State into the top 10 for most possessions per game.
72. Loyola Chicago
A good season in honor of Sister Jean awaits. College basketball’s most famous centenarian died earlier this month at 106; I’d be a fool to think Drew Valentine’s Ramblers would stagger in her memory. Per CBB Analytics, no returning player had more alley-oops a season ago than LUC center Miles Rubin (30 in 32 games), who doubles as a fantastic paint protector alongside PF Kymany Houinsou. Getting those two back alongside lead guard Justin Moore (5.3 apg) is going to prove pivotal in the A-10, which could wind up as one of the best league races in college hoops. These days, a mid-major keeping three starters is borderline essential to having a shot to win your league. Valentine’s won 23-plus games in three of his previous four seasons, and I think he hits that number again.
73. UNLV
Josh Pastner, welcome back to the sideline. After two seasons in the TV business, Pastner was itching to return to his true calling. So he finds himself in Vegas and with a roster-building experience unlike anything he’s done before. I’m definitely higher on the Rebs than the computers. Pastner’s biggest portal gets were Illinois’ Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, UC Irvine guard Myles Che and former High Point bruiser Kimani Hamilton. Pastner has been infused with new purpose; I’ll be surprised if by 2029 at the latest he hasn’t earned UNLV its first NCAA Tournament win since … 2008!
74. Xavier
Musketeer fans did not think they’d be starting with a new coach this season, but wouldn’t you rather be with someone who wants to be with you? Sean Miller dipped out for Texas, making way for Richard Pitino to join his father in the Big East and give additional compelling storylines to the league. Pitino’s won 247 games in his career and is coming off a delightful two-year run at New Mexico with back-to-back NCAA appearances, totaling 53 wins and coaching up the likes of JT Toppin and Donovan Dent. I think Year 1 will be bumpy and likely never feature X in the bubble picture, but this should be a hire that ultimately works, so much so that this is probably the lowest preseason ranking X will have for me for however long Pitino’s in Cincy.
75. Minnesota
Few fits better in this year’s coaching carousel than 51-year-old Niko Medved going back home to Minneapolis to coach the Gophers. Medved did a stellar job developing NBA talent and title-winning teams at Colorado State. Before that, he cut his teeth at Drake and Furman. He’s ready for this. His team will probably be in the bottom four of the Big Ten, but I don’t think Minnesota is doomed to irrelevancy. Medved’s going to make this work. He’ll get Minnesota into the NCAA Tournament multiple times for however long this tenure lasts. This feels right. The roster rotation is up in the air, but Cade Tyson has looked especially good in the preseason (after he stunk at UNC) and fits much better in Medved’s system, which includes this bewitching play-call.
76. Grand Canyon
The Antelopes have run from the WAC to the Mountain West, and in doing so, given this conference a jolt of buzz. This team’s home arena (checking … it’s … the Global Credit Union Arena? This place, which looks like a rave is called … that? Someone fix this ASAP, please) instantly jumps into the top-three environments in the conference. Bryce Drew brings back point guard Makaih Williams, and although Caleb Shaw got some burn last season, there’s a lot of new pieces to put into place. Since this is GCU, the portal treated it well, considering the level it was recruiting to and the funds it had to make some impact. Dusty Stromer comes over from Gonzaga, Nana Owusu-Anane a terrific and underrated get via Brown. The Lopes won the WAC four of the previous five seasons. They won’t win the Mountain West right away, but they’ll fit in beautifully.
77. VCU
The Rams are the official preseason pick to win the A-10, but I’ll veer away from that and instead project Phil Martelli Jr. to finish top-four in his first season at a great job. The former Bryant coach doesn’t have a POY candidate in the conference but he did pick up Tyrell Ward from LSU (Ward sat out last season), Ahmad Nowell from UConn (he’ll be much more impactful in the A-10), Jadrian Tracey from Oregon and four-star guard Nyk Lewis, who’s looked good in preseason. Bryant transfer Barry Evans joined Martelli and received preseason Second Team All-League honors with Ward and Tracey. I’ve got the Rams 77th. They’ve finished 75th or worse at KenPom just twice since 2006, but those two years were the first seasons for Ryan Odom and Mike Rhoades.
78. Penn State
Speaking of Mike Rhoades. He had it going so well at VCU. Then Penn State opened, the check was too good and he had to make the move. But this is a hard job. And Penn State’s portal abilities were at the bottom of the Big Ten this past spring. So I’ve got the Nittany Lions 17th in the 18-team pecking order. Rhoades is such a good coach, he can easily overshoot this prediction. Freddie Dilione V (9.4 ppg) is the one real impact guy who’s returning. After that, it’s up in the air on who steps in and steps up. Hopes are high for freshman Kayden Mingo, a four-star player who’s one of the best recruits to commit to the program this century.
79. Syracuse
Red Autry had a lost season in Year 2, going 14-19 and finishing well outside the top 100. This year must go better, otherwise a program that saw one coaching change in five decades will find itself with three coaches in a four-year span. The Orange bring back JJ Starling and Donnie Freeman — two quality ACC starters. Can they be winning players? Welcome in Naithan George (12.3), who had some good moments in-league at Georgia Tech. And there is a feel-good story you’ll hear plenty about: Kiyan Anthony, son of Carmelo, will play for SU. Anthony and Sadiq White are the future of this program, provided they can win enough to get Autry to Year 4.
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80. South Carolina
Lamont Paris’ team went 11 wins in Year 1, then jumped to 26 victories and a 6-seed in Year 2, then dipped back down to 12-20 and was the only bad team in the awesome SEC last season. One of the most interesting roster situations in the sport is based here, however. I’ve dubbed the “played here, went there, then came back” move as a “boomerang transfer,” but Meechie Johnson is transcending the concept. He was at Ohio State from 2020-22, then played at South Carolina from ’22-24. Then Johnson went back to Ohio State last season. And now he’s back in Columbia AGAIN. Ladies and gents, I am coining this the Ping Pong Transfer. Ultra-rare. Johnson’s a solid player, too! May well lead the team in scoring.
81. Liberty
The Flames have five top-100 finishes under Ritchie McKay since 2019. I expect this season to be the sixth thanks to McKay’s ability to hang on to some valuable talent. A lot of mid-majors in similar spots lost their best players, but Liberty isn’t scrambling. The Flames are the overwhelming favorite in CUSA after posting a 28-7 record last season. Double-digit scorers Kaden Metheny (13.3) and Zach Cleveland (11.0) return, in addition to point guard Colin Porter (9.1 ppg, 4.3 apg).
82. Stanford
I have the Cardinal ranked one spot behind where they finished at KenPom last season: 81. Kyle Smith’s group was 21-14 and went 12-10 against ACC competition in its first season in the league. It did so because it had the second-most productive player in the ACC: Maxime Raynaud led the league in scoring (20.2) and became an NBA pick. With Raynaud, Jaylen Blakes and Oziyah Sellers gone (that’s 47 points per game), Stanford will turn to junior wing Ryan Agarwal, senior forward Chisom Okpara and freshman guard Ebuka Okorie to try and keep heading in the proper direction.
83. San Francisco
USF was an average mid-major program for a long time, but look at what’s transpired since 2016: Kyle Smith, then Todd Golden, now Chris Gerlufsen. A combined 188-111, with the Dons coming off a 25-win season, their highest total since 1981-82. USF returns 5-10 lead guard Ryan Beasley and 6-6 small forward Tyrone Riley, who’s one of the more well-rounded players in the WCC. The Dons will be top-three/four in the WCC again with improved depth and an upgrade in frontcourt defense, bolstered by 7-foot Pitt transfer Guillermo Diaz Graham.
84. Belmont
I’ve got Casey Alexander’s team winning out in what could be a terrific Missouri Valley chase. Belmont returns Tyler Lundblade, who’s a threat to make 50% of his 3-pointers and 95% of his foul shots. Not many better shooters in the country, regardless of level, than that 6-5 senior. Forward Sam Orme is also back to support a cast that is on its way to a seventh straight season of 20-plus wins under Alexander.
85. Georgia Tech
Sort of just … existing. There are a few high-major schools that haven’t truly been relevant in a long time that I’d like to see make a surge back. Tech is one of those programs, but this isn’t the year. Damon Stoudamire is in this third season, and I do think there will be a nudge up after finishing outside the KenPom top 100 in his first two tours. Junior PF Baye Ndongo can be a 14-and-10 guy and should be the center of the operation. I’ve got the Bees so low because the backcourt ranks near the bottom in the ACC.
86. Rutgers
A year ago, hopes were high. Rutgers was going to compete near the top of the Big Ten with Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, its two best recruits in program history. RU went 15-17 and was THE bummer of last season. Now … we see what Steve Pikiell can do with yet another reset. Another Dylan — Dylan Grant — returns as the team’s leading scorer … at just 5.9 points per game. Jamichael Davis and Emmanuel Ogbole also returned. Can they reverse the vibes? Keep in mind, Rutgers’ top portal get was a guy from an NJIT team that won six games a season ago. It’s a tough ask.
87. UC Irvine
Russell Turner continues to churn out really good teams in beautiful Irvine, California. Last season, UCI went 32-7 (NIT runner-up), but you didn’t see it in the NCAA Tournament because UC San Diego was a Big West wagon. I expect the Anteaters to return to the top of the league, given UCSD coach Eric Olen took the New Mexico job. UCI’s had some standout bigs in the past decade, but this season it should be sophomore guard Jurian Dixona (Big West freshman of the year) and grad student Andre Henry who lead the way. Henry’s coming off an injury and could be the tip-the-scales factor between UCI and rival UC Santa Barbara.
88. DePaul
The first season under Chris Holtmann was 14-20 — which was an 11-game improvement from the year prior. This year’s club figures to improve by 2-4 wins, I figure, with CJ Gunn starting senior wing CJ Gunn taking on a starring role. The Blue Demons were actually acceptable on defense a season ago, a trend that will continue with Radford transfer Brandon Maclin teaming up with Gunn as upper-end on-ball hawks. This is a bigger team vs. last year’s, so I doubt it endures a dip like the 2-14 run it had in the middle of 2024-25. DePaul’s finished better than 100th just twice at KenPom since 2007. Mark me down for 2025-26 being the third exploit into the top 100.
89. South Florida
Few teams have more experience in the sport than USF, which ranks fourth nationally in that department according to Torvik. A little more than a year removed from the tragic death of former coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, the Bulls are looking to quickly reestablish their trajectory from his era with new coach Bryan Hodgson. USF was the No. 2 pick in the American, behind Memphis, and will be led by redshirt senior forward Daimion Collins (previously at LSU, Kentucky) and big man Izaiyah Nelson, who came along with Hodgson from Arkansas State.
90. UCF
The most heavily rumored coach to be fired/retire last spring who didn’t actually move was UCF’s Johnny Dawkins. This is Dawkins’ 10th season. He’s had only one NCAA Tournament team in his time here. Last year the Knights were a middle-of-the-road Big 12 team that had just two wins vs. top-50 competition. And then they wound up losing every. single. player. on the roster. Not a single guy on scholarship here played a minute last season for Dawkins. The most recognizable names here, now, are former Florida/Mississippi State guard Riley Kugel and former TTU forward Devan Cambridge. Anything shy of an NCAA run will most definitely lead to a coaching change in Orlando next March.
91. Yale
Another year, another really good James Jones team in New Haven, Connecticut. (Side note: New Haven now has TWO Division I teams with D-I’s newest member: The University of … New Haven.) As for the Elis in the Ivy League, senior forward Nick Townsend is ready to be the next all-league player who stars for the Bulldogs, following in the footsteps of guys like Danny Wolf, Bez Mbeng, Miye Oni, Justin Sears, etc. Jones (418 wins) is one of the oldest-tenured coaches in D-I: he’s been at Yale since 1999. He should’ve had a bigger job years ago. I expect to see his team cozily ranked inside the top 100 of the metrics for the sixth time in an eight-year span.
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92. Colorado
Is this Tad Boyle’s final year in Boulder? He had zero interest retiring after a 14-21 season and last-place finish in the 16-team Big 12, so let’s see if the next five months can be a — ahem, tad — bit better. The roster isn’t overly inspiring (the leading scorer could be a 6-footer who played at UC Riverside), but I doubt Colorado takes back-to-back cellar-dwelling seasons (I have Utah last in the league in ’25-26).
93. Charleston
Chris Mack is mighty confident in this group. It’s one of his strongest teams, and accordingly, Charleston will be the favorite in the CAA. The Cougars’ size and athleticism gets a big upgrade from last season, when Mack’s debut campaign ended with a splendid 24-9 record. Names to know include Chol Machot (the team’s best defender) and bucket-getters Mister Dean (elite name!) and Christian Reeves (Clemson transfer). Few mid-majors had as much money in the portal as Charleston. Seems a safe bet this team is getting to at least 24 wins again.
94. Florida State
The youngest high-major coach hired in 2025 is in Tallahassee, where 35-year-old Luke Loucks has come aboard after building out his résumé at the NBA level over the past 10 years. Loucks is an alum (2008-12) who spent the past three seasons with the Sacramento Kings. This is a big wait-and-see. FSU had petered out in Leonard Hamilton’s final three seasons and there’s no telling if Loucks will need three or four seasons to find his bearings and navigate through the ACC. I’m understandably selling in Year 1, but most others are as well, especially since FSU, per my sources, had one of the three lowest NIL budgets in the 18-team ACC for the upcoming season. The top dude here could be Clemson transfer Chauncey Wiggins, who should surely surge about the 8.3 points he averaged a season ago in the ACC.
95. Miami (OH)
I’ll take the RedHawks in the MAC, which if it comes to pass would mark the first time since 2006-07 they won a league crown. Former Xavier coach Travis Steele has found a groove here, and this season’s team has a pleasurable mix of high-end mid-major freshman talent and dependable experience. Guard Peter Suder (team-leading 13.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.8 apg) thrives off connectivity with his teammates. Suder, Evan Ipsaro and Eian Elmer will be the core in Oxford, Ohio.
96. Northern Iowa
I nearly took Bradley (which is coming off 76 wins in the past three seasons, its best run since Hersey Hawkins was a national player of the year at the Missouri Valley school in the late 1980s), but UNI has too much returning not to give Ben Jacobson’s squad the nod. UNI returns, by far, the highest percentage of its players in the Valley. Watch for senior guard Trey Campbell to make a push for MVC POY. With Belmont my projected champ, it was mandatory to get a second MVC team in the top 100. The conference always squeezes at least two teams into this echelon, if not more.
97. Nevada
Might not seem like it, but this is sort of a swing of faith. The Wolf Pack have finished top-100 at KenPom in five of the previous six seasons under Steve Alford (overall finishing average in Alford’s time: 78.5). So, despite bringing back the third-fewest overall minutes in the Mountain West and losing his top five scorers, I’ll give Alford the benefit of the doubt and sneak Nevada onto the list here. Look for Tyler Rolison to be a breakout MW guy, with Elijah Price and Corey Camper bursting onto the scene as key portal pickups.
98. James Madison
Preston Spradlin is one of the sharpest young minds in mid-major coaching. After successfully navigating the low-end of the sport at Morehead State, he walked into the JMU job a season ago and won 20 games. Now he brings back F Eddie Ricks and G Justin Taylor to combine with some high-end mid-major transfers in Brad Douglas (who’ll run point) and Cliff Davis (who made 100-plus 3-pointers the past two seasons while at UTRGV). The Dukes also have a former top-150 recruit at power forward in Justin McBride and a former top-100 recruit in Ike Cornish. If all are healthy, this is the best team in the Sun Belt.
99. Tulane
The Green Wave have American Conference preseason player of the year Rowan Brumbaugh, a venturesome redshirt junior guard who is the most accomplished player back in the league. He’ll be back along with senior guard Asher Woods, giving Ron Hunter’s team a good base — and there are still a handful of role players from last season still in play in New Orleans. Hunter should have his best two-year run since arriving at Tulane in 2019.
100. Colorado State
A coaching change (Niko Medved left for Colorado, making way for March Madness legend Ali Farokhmanesh to get promoted) will probably lead a downswing for the Rams, but I’ve got faith that the Mountain West can again produce at least six top-100 teams. The issue is the departure of 50 points per game in the form of Nique Clifford, Jalen Lake, Kyan Evans and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson. It’s possible — even probable — that Farokhmanesh winds up starting four transfers alongside the best returnee, Rashaan Mbemba (7.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg). The success could rely on Josh Pascarelli (15.9 ppg at Marist) in the backcourt and Jevin Muniz (10.6 ppg at FGCU). Former four-star Carey Booth is now campus here as well. Is this the spot where he can thrive?
And 1: UAB
This is a swing, because UAB underwent a total rebuild after losing every scholarship player. So why am I still logging on to endorse ’em? Because one of the most reliable mid-major coaches in the country lives in Birmingham. This is Year 6 for Andy Kennedy with the Blazers, and did you know UAB has averaged 25.0 wins the past five years under his tutelage? Average KenPom finish: 81st. I can’t keep the Dragons out of the Top 100 And 1 with that kind of track record. UAB takes a massive hit with the loss of Yaxel Lendeborg (who, along with Cooper Flagg, were the only players to lead their team in every statistical category a season ago) to Michigan.
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