The NCAA Tournament is a thrilling spectacle, but winning the league still has to matter. You get a banner. You get a ring. Months of consistent dominance amid the topsy-turvy road that is an 18- or 20-game grind should be celebrated. But the scourge that is college football-obsessed realignment has changed the tune in basketball’s title races.
Outside of the Big East’s gorgeous true round-robin schedule, every other high-major conference has unbalanced schedules that will have a huge say in who wins (or misses out) on a regular-season crown.
The most egregious schedule gaffes would include:
- Miami and Duke will not meet in ACC play this year. Jon Scheyer does not face his ex-right-hand man, Jai Lucas. Despicable stuff from the ACC schedule-makers.
- Michigan, Illinois and Purdue were three of the best Big Ten teams in the preseason. They each get to play each other just once. Those games matter so much more, but a double-dip would be high-level hoops.
- Arkansas and Kentucky only got to play once this year.
Let’s dive into where each of the five high-major conference title races is trending with the regular season finale less than four weeks away.
ACC has a runaway favorite, but don’t sleep on others in March
The favorite: Duke (22-2, 11-1)
The Blue Devils are the most complete team in this league, have the best player in Cameron Boozer and own the third-easiest conference schedule left. Clemson and Virginia are absolutely in the race, but both have to come play inside Duke’s raucous homecourt advantage.
It would take a real collapse for Duke not to win at least a share of the crown for the second year in a row, but it’s hard to shake those iffy feelings about Jon Scheyer’s point guards. Odds to win the ACC via the CBS Sports model: 70.1%
Contender: Clemson (20-4, 10-1)
This veteran-laden Tigers club is well-schooled defensively and doesn’t budge an inch. Clemson’s collection of mobile bigs forces a ton of tough shots and limits second-chance opportunities as well as anyone in the league. But if Clemson is going to get a piece of this title, it will need to be road warriors against Duke or UNC.
Home tilts against Virginia Tech and Louisville won’t be easy either for a Clemson club that has good, not great, guard play. Odds to win the ACC via the CBS Sports model: 13.5%
Contender: Virginia (21-3, 10-2)
Ryan Odom’s group may have the best nine-man rotation in the league with a gorgeous combination of size, skill and shooting. Virginia could be the ACC’s best bet to make a March Madness run because it can win games in so many different ways. Its championship hopes may rest on going into Cameron Indoor on the final day of February and knocking off Duke. Odds to win the ACC via the CBS Sports model: 15%
Dark horse: NC State (18-7, 9-3)
Even after a 41-point drubbing at the hands of Louisville, NC State is not quite dead in the ACC Championship race. The schedule is absolutely brutal. Miami, UNC, Virginia, Duke, Stanford and a roadie against Notre Dame are all anything but no-brainers. But if NC State can shore up this leaky defense, it has the firepower to go band-for-band with almost anybody. Odds to win the ACC via the CBS Sports model: 1.3%
Trotter’s pick to win the ACC: Duke
Big East is a heated two-horse race
Favorite: UConn (22-2, 12-1)
Dan Hurley has a collection of shooters that no one in the Big East can match. Braylon Mullins, Alex Karaban and Solo Ball orbiting around the Silas Demary Jr.-Tarris Reed pick-and-roll is and will always be a brutal defensive assignment. UConn, by every metric, looks like the best all-around roster, but that doesn’t guarantee you a banner. UConn has to clean up the turnovers, learn how to defend without fouling and find more grit. If it can do so, UConn will be the champion. Odds to win the Big East, per the CBS Sports model: 65.2%
Contender: St. John’s (19-5, 12-1):
St. John’s is just too big, too fast, too strong and far too athletic for most Big East opposition. The Johnnies are alive and well in this race after knocking off UConn on Friday and holding off Xavier on Monday to punctuate a 10-game winning streak. They are just too overwhelming for a 40 (or 45-minute) contest. Rick Pitino controls his destiny in the chase for his second-straight regular-season title. Odds to win the Big East, per the CBS Sports model: 33.2%
Dark horse: Villanova (19-5, 10-3)
Villanova appears to be a tier below both UConn and St. John’s, but Kevin Willard gets two more chances to prove that to be incorrect. The guard play for Villanova is its best attribute. Acaden Lewis is turning into a star. Tyler Perkins is steady as ever. Bryce Lindsay and Devin Askew are capable shot-makers who can explode at a moment’s notice. It’s a good mix, but Nova has to win out to even sniff a share. Odds to win the Big East, per the CBS Sports model: 1.6%
Trotter’s pick to win the Big East: UConn
The Big 12 is now up for grabs
Favorite: Houston (22-2, 10-1)
A familiar face is back atop the Big 12 projections. Houston arguably has the best backcourt in the sport with Milos Uzan, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp, and it has one of the easier paths that the conference can offer. (Easy, he writes, to describe the same slate that includes two road dates to Kansas and Iowa State, arguably the toughest venues in the league. Suuuure!)
But that goes to show just how back-loaded this Big 12 schedule is with so many contenders primed for major showdowns in the next few weeks. If Houston wins the title, it will have earned it. Thankfully, Houston’s style of play travels on the road better than almost every outfit. Odds to win the Big 12, per the CBS Sports model: 55.8%
Contender: Arizona (23-1, 10-1)
Arizona might be No. 1 in the country, but it is not the favorite to win the Big 12 after Monday’s 82-78 loss to No. 9 Kansas without Darryn Peterson. No Big 12 team has a tougher rest-of-conference schedule than the Wildcats. This gauntlet is here to stay. Five of the Wildcats’ next six games are against the best the Big 12 has to offer: Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas (again), Iowa State and Houston. Arizona has the physicality, size, halfcourt defense and interior dominance to survive, but it needs more from Koa Peat and Jaden Bradley, who were a combined 4-for-18 from the floor against KU with four missed free throws to boot. Odds to win the Big 12, per the CBS Sports model: 19.2%
Contender: Iowa State (21-3, 8-3)
Iowa State is about to embark on a 17-day span where it plays the other five best teams in the Big 12 and parachutes into elevation to play Utah. Woof. Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic will have to be on their respective games every single night from here on out because Iowa State’s depth options have fallen back to earth after red-hot starts. Jefferson is casually still second in KenPom.com’s National Player of the Year ratings, and Momcilovic is casually putting together one of the all-time shooting seasons. He is draining 52% of his treys. That’s No. 3 in America. Oh, and he’s splashed NINETY-THREE of them. A certified net-shredder. Odds to win the Big 12, per the CBS Sports model: 8.7%
Contender: Kansas (19-5, 9-2)
To a neutral observer, this is the most likable Kansas team in a long, long time. Even with Darryn Peterson thumbing in and out of the lineup, Kansas competes like hyenas. Melvin Council Jr. and Flory Bidunga will do whatever it takes to win ball games. Remarkably, this group has gotten back into this race after road losses to West Virginia and UCF in early January. Odds to win the Big 12, per the CBS Sports model: 16%
Dark horse: Texas Tech (17-6, 7-3)
The Red Raiders only have three meetings left against the top tier of the Big 12. The problem is that those three tilts against Arizona, BYU and Iowa State will come on the road. Not fun. It’s unlikely that Texas Tech can run the table, but it is close to becoming the best version of itself. Shot-blocker Luke Bamgboye’s minutes are getting ramped up slowly but surely to add a new element to Texas Tech’s arsenal. No one wants to play this team in March. Odds to win the Big 12, per the CBS Sports model: 0.02%
Trotter’s pick to win the Big 12: Arizona and Houston share the crown
A clear top dawg emerges in a top-heavy Big Ten
Favorite: Michigan (22-1, 12-1)
Michigan’s pace and size are so hard to manage over a 40-minute game. Michigan just keeps wearing opponents down over and over and over again. But if Michigan wants to win the title, it has to be road warriors. Going to Purdue, Illinois and Iowa will be dogfights. It also has another Michigan State clash waiting in the regular-season finale. Michigan has the third-toughest schedule remaining in Big Ten play. The predictive metrics believe Michigan is the best team in the Big Ten, but those wobbly road games against TCU in November, Maryland in December and Penn State in January offer a bit of hope to the rest of the Big Ten. Odds to win the Big Ten, per the CBS Sports model: 76.4%
Contender: Illinois (20-5, 11-3):
The Illini have so many answers to the test offensively. Some days, it will be the Keaton Wagler explosion. Some days, it will be David Mirkovic’s time to play point-forward. Some days, it will be time for Andrej Stojakovic to put small guards in a blender. That optionality gives Illinois a real shot to make major noise in March because its unselfish approach to offense creates great shots every night and the Illini are enormous. But Brad Underwood needs to get healthy. Stojakovic is out with a sprained ankle. Kylan Boswell is still healing from a hand injury. Illinois can’t reach the peak of its powers without that duo. Back-to-back, razor-tight, overtime losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin confirmed that. That late-February contest against Michigan is unquestionably a must-win if Illinois wants a share of the title. Odds to win the Big Ten, per the CBS Sports model: 9.2%
Contender: Nebraska (21-3, 10-3)
The margin for error to win this giant of a league is so slim, and Nebraska found that out in Tuesday’s 80-77 overtime loss to Purdue. This Huskers group is just so mentally tough, but it’s a steep uphill climb to earn a share. It can’t do it without Rienk Mast looking like Rienk Mast again. He is the skeleton key to all of this, and an 18-point, seven-assist, six-rebound showing against Purdue after a 26-point eruption against Rutgers is a tell-tale sign that he’s back to his old self. Nebraska has to win out to give itself a share. Oh, what a story that would be for a program in the midst of a historic run. Odds to win the Big Ten, per the CBS Sports model: 4.4%
Purdue (20-4, 10-3)
The preseason favorites are still in this after a dramatic road survival against Nebraska. Purdue has one of the toughest remaining Big Ten schedules, but this group is capable of winning every game it plays. As weird as it sounds, Purdue may be happy it has a brutal schedule down the stretch. Purdue can just pin its ears back and be the hunter, not the hunted, for the first time in a while. Odds to win the Big Ten, per the CBS Sports model: 9%
Dark horse: Michigan State (20-4, 10-3)
There’s a good shot that six of Michigan State’s final seven opponents will all make the NCAA Tournament. MSU’s margin for error is extremely slim, but it also controls its destiny a fair bit. It will get its shot against Purdue and Michigan, albeit on the road. This well-schooled defense is awesome. Jeremy Fears Jr. is one of the masterful point guards in all of college basketball, and if one disagrees, you’re just watching the viral clips, not the actual games. MSU probably doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to win the league, but it also may have turned a corner against Illinois. Can it build off that huge comeback win? If so, Sparty is not dead in the chase for a back-to-back crown. Odds to win the Big Ten, per the CBS Sports model: 0.02%
Trotter’s pick to win the Big Ten: Michigan.
The Gators are in the SEC driver’s seat, but six (!) teams are still alive
Favorite: Florida (17-6, 8-2)
Florida has seized control of this race after a dominant three-game stretch that included romps over South Carolina, Alabama and Texas A&M. The Gators are just telling some of these teams that they are just way, way too little. Florida is shooting 58.3% on 2s in SEC play. Its opponents are shooting 45.3%. That 13% delta is the widest margin in the league by a country mile. Oh, and Florida has the easiest schedule remaining. Take care of business, and Florida will win the SEC regular-season title for the first time since 2013-14. Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 58.7%
Contender: Kentucky (17-7, 8-3)
No SEC team has a harder remaining schedule than Kentucky. Two dates with Florida. Road tilts with Auburn and Texas A&M. Vanderbilt and Georgia won’t be gimmes either. Kentucky has shown remarkable resolve by not allowing the season to go down the toilet. Otega Oweh is hooping, the interior defense is way stiffer lately, and Kentucky is finally making 3s. But UK has also gotten some good fortune in late-game situations as of late. The ‘Cats are shooting 37% from downtown in clutch-time minutes, while their opponents are hovering in the 22% range from 3-point range. That massive gap may not stick down the home stretch. Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 18.8%
Contender: Alabama (16-7, 6-4)
Alabama has one of the easiest schedules left, which is why the model is a bit higher on its hopes, despite already swallowing four conference losses. Alabama should stack wins against the toothless quartet that is Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU and Mississippi State. Nate Oats also gets two of his three-hardest games (Arkansas and Auburn) at home.
But big man Charles Bediako is not eligible to play anymore after Monday’s courtroom decision. March Madness is less than five weeks away and Alabama is still tinkering with its lineups. Alabama desperately needs to settle in and get into a groove. I still think this group has too many flaws to win the title, but Labaron Philon, Aden Holloway and Amari Allen are a good-enough trio to make a run at this thing considering this slate. Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 7.6%
Contender: Arkansas (18-6, 8-3)
It’s time for Arkansas to get healthy and turn this thing up. The Hogs are explosive and equally mercurial, partially due to a defense that only has a couple of plus defenders at their respective positions. There’s just a ton on the plate of Darius Acuff, Meleek Thomas and Trevon Brazile right now. John Calipari can’t afford to take that trio off the floor after DJ Wagner and Karter Knox got nicked up.
Arkansas’ fastball might have more juice than anyone in the league outside of Florida, but consistency has evaded this group. The most consistent teams tend to win the title. Can Arkansas flip the switch? Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 7%
DARK HORSES
Dark horse: Tennessee (16-7, 6-4)
Nate Ament has figured this whole college basketball thing out. The five-star freshman wing is torching, averaging nearly 24 points in the last seven games, once again proving that patience is a virtue. That makes Tennessee dangerous because they have the interior size, they have a difference-making point guard and they have willing role players. The Vols have a favorable schedule down the stretch, but three losses to Florida and Kentucky will be hard to overcome. Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 2.1%
Dark horse: Texas A&M (17-6, 7-3)
Getting obliterated, literally and figuratively, by Florida has taken some of the wind out of Texas A&M’s sails in the SEC race. Just being in the conversation is a win for this group, and the Aggies are a total pain to play. I’m curious if Texas A&M’s offensive rebounding can become more of an asset down the stretch. Texas A&M reeled in 35% of its misses against Florida’s ginormous front-line. That’s not nothing. Texas A&M gets extremely dangerous if the offensive rebounding can become more of an asset down the home stretch. Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 1.8%
Dark horse: Vanderbilt (20-4, 7-4)
As expected, some of Vanderbilt’s flaws on the interior have started to show in SEC play, but it has also gotten a bit unlucky with an untimely injury to Duke Miles that sapped an already-thin guard room. I’m workshopping a theory that a buy-low opportunity for Vanderbilt may be starting to materialize with the ‘Dores once they get out of the athlete-heavy SEC. They will still be a total pain to play against in the NCAA Tournament, especially with a short prep for opponents to prepare for these guards? Good luck and best wishes. Odds to win the SEC, per the CBS Sports model: 1.5%
Trotter’s pick to win the SEC: Florida
Add Comment