Chiefs vs. Commanders picks, odds, line, predictions for ‘Monday Night Football’

After a rare early Sunday afternoon kickoff, the Kansas City Chiefs are back on primetime as they’ll host the Washington Commanders on ‘Monday Night Football’ to conclude the NFL Week 8 schedule. Last week’s afternoon contest saw Kansas City (4-3) shut out the Raiders, 31-0, as the Chiefs have won four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Washington (2-4) lost both its Week 7 game to the Cowboys, 44-22, and its quarterback in Jayden Daniels (hamstring) to injury. Daniels is out for this one, with Marcus Mariota starting in his place, though the Commanders do have receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back this week.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs have won eight straight matchups versus Washington, with the teams last meeting in 2021. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite in the latest Commanders vs. Chiefs odds. The over/under for total points scored is 48. Before making any Chiefs vs. Commanders picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 43-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Washington vs. Kansas City. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Commanders:

Why the Commanders can cover

Washington has several things in its favor, both in terms of recent ‘Monday Night Football’ games and in regard to the spread. The Commanders have won each of their last three road MNF matchups, and they’ve also gone 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in non-conference games since the start of last season. That’s the third best spread record over that stretch, while Kansas City has failed to live up to the line in recent Monday games. Patrick Mahomes is just 1-6 ATS over his last seven Monday games, after beginning his career with a 5-0-1 ATS mark in these contests.

Regardless of who is under center for Washington, its offense will run through the ground game. The team boasts the No. 2 rushing offense in the NFL, and Washington tops the league with 5.4 yards per carry. With their read-option attack, the Commanders always come up clutch around the goal line as they rank second in redzone scoring. They also have more than enough of a pass rush to slow down the Chiefs’ offense as Washington’s 19 defensive sacks trail just six other teams. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City has covered in four of its last five games, highlighted by its historic 31-0 victory over Vegas on Sunday. It was Andy Reid’s 427th regular season game as head coach, and it was the first time that Reid’s team shut out an opponent. Mahomes became the first quarterback since 2000 to have 200 passing yards and three passing touchdowns over his first three drives as the Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders with the return of wideout Rashee Rice. He had seven catches for 42 yards and two scores in his first game in over a calendar year.

The Chiefs are 10-1 all-time versus the Washington franchise, including a current eight-game win streak in which their average margin of victory is 18.6 points. Kansas City’s ascending passing game will get to face one of the league’s worst pass defenses as Washington ranks dead last in yards per attempt allowed and yards per completion allowed. The Commanders also possess a -5 turnover differential on the year, which is fourth-worst in the league, while Kansas City has the fifth-best turnover differential at +5. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Chiefs vs. Commanders picks

For Commanders vs. Chiefs on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the model is leaning Over the total, projecting 50 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Commanders, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 43-28 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.