Champions League: Man City, Chelsea aim to lead England sides

The Champions League round of 16 is upon us. Only a month from now will we be readying ourselves for a set of quarterfinals that look about as English as an FA Cup third round tie, Saturday 3 p.m., Bovrils and balti pies for all? Probably not, but there is a very real prospect that all six Premier League teams still in the hat will make it through. Two are strong favorites, another is expected to edge a tight contest, and three likely underdogs.

Three seems likely, four possible, six an outside shot, but one that would surely send convulsions through European football. To put numbers behind exactly what an outside shot looks like, going off bookmakers’ odds on Monday morning, you would get combined odds of roughly +2500 on all six teams qualifying, an implied probability of around 3.8%. Opta’s projection model thinks similarly, landing at just short of 4%. It would then be extremely surprising if we had a Premier League sextet in the last eight, but we’re not talking Leicester City winning the title in terms of shock value here.

It is not that we have not seen a preponderance of clubs from one nation go deep in the Champions League before. In 2003, three of the semifinalists came from Italy, AC Milan beating Inter in the semifinal and Juventus in the final. Between 2007 and 2009, each final quartet included three from the Premier League, Chelsea and Manchester United ever presents, Liverpool in there twice, and Arsenal once. In the last two of those years England had four quarterfinalists, as they also did in 2019. That it took them a decade to reassert such preeminence is a reminder that the relative quality of leagues will wax and wane. Six, however, would naturally give the quarterfinals a different feel. The semis too, given that it would lock in two spots for the Premier League.

That goes some way to explaining why six is more of a problem than five. In the immediate term, it locks in at least two English semifinalists and would surely end any remaining mathematical questions over whether the Premier League is getting its fifth spot in next season’s Champions League. That’s another club benefiting from likely $100 million of revenue at a minimum. 

The prospect of six English teams would remain very much alive if favorites Aston Villa go deep in the Europa League and keep sinking in the Premier League. That is to say nothing of what might happen if Nottingham Forest win the Europa League or Spurs somehow find themselves winning the Champions League. To put it mildly, that latter scenario is implausible, but it really says something about the Super Leagueification of the Premier League that in the spring, there are still multiple scenarios whereby an English club might find itself playing in both the Championship and Champions League next season.

However many ultimately reach the last eight, it is hard to shake the sense that the Premier League is streaking clear of all but the super clubs; it would not speak well of the rest of the game on this continent if it can’t buy a domestic win and yet Tottenham found themselves rubbing shoulders with the rest of the Champions League quarterfinalists.

Just how serious a crisis this is rather depends on what you view the Champions League as. If we are in the business of whittling down the best football clubs in Europe until we reach a last 16 that is representative of the game’s balance of power, well this season so far hasn’t done too bad a job. Bodo/Glimt are the fairytale story it’s nice to have, but otherwise the field offers eight of the top 10 based on Club Elo ratings, three more ranked 12th, 14th and 17th as well as Bayer Leverkusen (23rd), Atalanta (25th) and Tottenham (28th). It’s not a perfect lineup, but the problem is if you want to make it more representative of which clubs are the most talented on the continent, then it’s going to need a bit less Atletico Madrid and Atalanta, a bit more Brentford, Brighton and Bournemouth. And of course, that doesn’t feel right.

If we want to go back to what feels more like an idealistic vision of crowning a European champion, the best each country has against the rest, well, you’re going to have to have some very awkward conversations with the broadcasters who pay the bills. After all the ties that are on the brink of being overplayed — here’s looking at you Manchester City vs. Real Madrid — might become a once-in-a-generation occasion.

There is no way of getting the genie back in the bottle. It’s not entirely clear that anyone would want to. It is also not entirely clear that this is a problem — however much of one it is — that has been forged by the league phase. After all, one of the key drivers of English success this season would have been there three years ago. However, the group stages were drawn, Premier League teams would not have had to have played Premier League teams due to UEFA’s country restrictions. They didn’t this year, and that is why a team like Tottenham can get a far more favorable fixture list than Real Madrid or Paris Saint-Germain.

Those teams both dropped points to English opponents, as did the likes of Inter, Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid. It’s notable too that some of the teams who did better than might have been expected, particularly Sporting, but even 13th placed Juventus, were able to swerve such opponents on the fixture list. It’s not that Tottenham or maybe even Newcastle are so much better than most of the other top teams in Europe, but what the issue is is that those teams can be confident not only that they definitely won’t have to play Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, but that so many of the other big guns probably won’t.

The obvious salve here for UEFA is to remove the block on facing teams from their own association, but it is easy to see why that would be so unappealing. No one is crying out for more Manchester City vs. Newcastle games. So long as English teams avoid English teams for the first half of the competition, the business end will likely see plenty of familiar faces from that island off the coast of France.

How many though will actually be in this season’s last eight? Let’s assess their chances, ranking each side in order of their likelihood of progressing:

1. Arsenal

It has been a gruelling but successful few weeks for Arsenal since they became the first team to go eight from eight in the league phase. Mikel Arteta’s side is still in with a shout of completing an unprecedented English quadruple (as are title rivals Manchester City), and it is perhaps that reality that you would hold against their chances of winning the Champions League. Overcoming Mansfield in the FA Cup on Saturday came at the cost of two more injuries to the Arsenal squad, with Riccardo Calafiori and Leandro Trossard joining Martin Odegaard, William Saliba, Ben White and Mikel Merino as doubts or confirmed absentees for the trip to Bayer Leverkusen.

Having said all that, Arsenal built the deepest squad in Europe for a reason. Whatever XI they field in the Bay Arena, you would fancy it has the quality to overcome a side that has never really found consistent momentum in the Bundesliga, even after the sacking of Erik ten Hag. Maybe the four points they took from Manchester City and Newcastle suggest they are a good match-up for English team, but it is more likely that Leverkusen were the beneficiaries of overtinkering from Pep Guardiola to beat the former. 

It’s hard to see Arteta doing the same in the knockout stages. Instead, it seems more likely that Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres will feast in the space behind Leverkusen’s wing-backs while Gabriel anchors a defense that at full strength can shut down much more experienced attacks than Leverkusen’s.

2. Liverpool

You wouldn’t have Liverpool much behind the Gunners in terms of favorites. There are just a few small factors that give you pause for thought where Arne Slot’s side are concerned. It’s not ideal for them to be without Alisson, who, even in a season of struggles, deserves to rank among the best goalkeepers in the world. In 11 games without their No.1 this season, Liverpool have five wins and six losses. Giorgi Mamardashvili proved before coming to England that he is a talented shot stopper, but so far, he hasn’t carried his Valencia or Georgia form to Merseyside.

Worries about the goalkeeper are all the more pronounced given the forwards Liverpool are coming up against in Galatasaray. Leroy Sane hasn’t really set the Super Lig or Champions League alight. Nor has Noa Lang, though there were two Champions League goals to balance that out, while Mauro Icardi and Baris Alper Yilmaz are talented but not beyond the level Liverpool should back themselves to deal with. The concern is that one of them might have a performance that really pops, and that that dovetails with the probable excellence of Victor Osimhen.

The Nigerian was pretty excellent aside from the penalty he scored in the 1-0 win over Liverpool in the league stage and was nigh on unplayable in both legs against Juventus. What happens if Osimhen’s best night coincides with one of those infrequent but more frequent than they used to be off days for Virgil van Dijk? And suppose that happens at Rams Park, where a boisterous home crowd can inspire Galatasaray to deliver huge upsets? Even that probably wouldn’t be quite enough to eliminate Liverpool, but you can see a path to them having a really fiddly passage to the last eight.

3. Manchester City

Pep Guardiola will be the first to tell you that his team aren’t vintage Manchester City. There has been a bit of stabilization in recent weeks after the quite profound wobble of early 2026. Marc Guehi has made their defense a bit better, Antoine Semenyo a similar impact on attack. Between them there’s room for improvement with Rodri and Bernardo Silva not making for the sort of dynamic midfield duo that can stop City getting run through. 

Of course, teams have gone up the gut all this season, and last, it’s just that this team has Erling Haaland. What the last few weeks have shown us, though, is that the City No.9 is, if not mortal, at least not an all-conquering leviathan who simply cannot be stopped. Four goals and three assists in 15 games since the turn of the year, 0.4 non-penalty expected goals per 90, 3.01 shots, and 0.16 goals? Those are not paper-over-the-cracks numbers.

These are problems that might raise their head further down the line. For now you would fancy City to overcome Real Madrid, who have carelessly managed to schedule their latest institutional crisis next to an injury one. Alvaro Arbeloa is already proving himself to be no Xabi Alonso for all the wrong reasons, Alvaro Carreras’ absence could make a weak defense even weaker and Kylian Mbappe’s return to training is by no means a guarantee of performance.

4. Chelsea

The bookmakers have the Blues as one of three English underdogs to qualify, but this column would just favor them to find a way past Paris Saint-Germain. In many ways, the holders lucked out by drawing the only team that ought to be as drained by the Club World Cup as they were, and yet for all the issues at Stamford Bridge this season, Chelsea’s doesn’t look like a squad that has run out of juice. Cole Palmer is perhaps the one exception you would offer for that, but when he is unavailable, Liam Rosenior can pick from the likes of Enzo Fernandez, Estevao, Pedro Neto and Joao Pedro on the right flank or in central attacking midfield. There just aren’t those same reserves of experienced depth at the Parc des Princes and it has shown in recent weeks.

It would appear that the injury issues are easing at the Parc des Princes, a knee injury could rule Fabian Ruiz out, but otherwise, Luis Enrique could roll out an XI that, goalkeeper aside, is as you’d remember from last season’s run to the final. Then again, it was a quite strong team that was beaten 3-1 by Monaco at the weekend and hardly put up the sort of xG dominance you’d expect from a side that spent two-thirds of a game fighting for a way back into it. We’d already seen in both legs of their Champions League tie against that same opponent, who might have qualified if they didn’t have red cards each time. Of course, asking Chelsea to keep to their full complement of 11 is quite a stretch, but if they do so, they might just edge this one.

5. Newcastle United

The tie of the round might just be Barcelona at St. James’ Park, the best Spain has to offer against an opponent currently 12th in the Premier League, not even the outstanding club in the north west of England. Now Newcastle should be a fair bit higher in the table, both based on the talent at Eddie Howe’s disposal and the broad sweep of their performances.

In principle, you’d make Barcelona pretty heavy favorites against an opponent in Newcastle’s position, but there is that high line factor and how it was brutally exposed by Chelsea back in November. When Hansi Flick’s side win it back, they are a real threat but Newcastle are pretty good at making sure that does not happen. Their Premier League opponents win back possession in the attacking half at a below league-average rate.

The Magpies should also be quite well-placed to attack the space Barcelona vacate with their press. Only Bournemouth play with a higher direct speed in the Premier League this season, and Newcastle rank third behind Manchester City and Liverpool at metres advanced per attacking sequence. When you have Sandro Tonali, Malick Thiaw and even a ball-carrying dynamo like Joelinton in your team, you should be able to get upfield quickly. That is to say nothing of the fact that if Anthony(s) Gordon and Elanga time their runs right to beat the offside trap, there’s no catching them.

It is those factors that explain why Newcastle ran Barcelona so close on home turf back in September. And yet it was the superstar talent that was Marcus Rashford who won the day for the LaLiga leaders then. It might not be him this time, but only because he might not see the pitch ahead of Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha. Given those superstars in the final third, you’d probably pick Barcelona to triumph in this shootout.

6. Tottenham

First things first, don’t buy a word that Diego Simeone is saying. “They came fourth in the league phase, we came through the play-offs,” he told his pre-match press conference. “We are not favourites… We don’t know how Tottenham are going to start the game. We do know their characteristics, and I know their coach, who has always set up his teams to play with an offensive thought. We imagine many things, and then the players can change them.”

Simeone, of course, is bending the truth there. We all know how Tottenham are going to start this game… badly. They have been one of the three worst teams in England since the turn of the year, without a domestic victory since December 28. It is a strange curio that they managed to beat Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt in the league phase back in late January but the trajectory since then has been pretty remorselessly downwards. 

Igor Tudor poured gasoline on the tire fire when he said Spurs needed to improve their attack, midfield and defense after the defeat to Fulham. His proposed solution? Pedro Porro, one of the few creators still available to Tottenham, shunted onto the right of a back three. Look at that chart below. Matters are getting quite rapidly out of hand, and if that is your Premier League form there is a sporting imperative to get out of any other competitions as quick as you can. Protect the mothership, or you’re looking at a quarter of a billion in lost revenue.

If we dropped the same chart for Atletico Madrid you’d see the picture in inverse. xG for the one you want to increase is heading in the right direction. xG against is too. Really, though, Atleti shouldn’t need to be anything like their best self to overcome an opponent in free fall. And if somehow Spurs do advance through this round well, then ok maybe this is an immediate crisis for European football.