CFP Traffic Report: Examining the paths for remaining Power Four contenders

With the regular season now in the books, we’re nearing the end of the road in the race to the College Football Playoff. While much of the 12-team field is essentially set, there’s still plenty to be determined with seeding and automatic bids still very much in flux heading into conference championship weekend. So, how are the remaining contenders navigating the traffic?

There are roughly eight teams that can feel comfortable about their place in the playoff regardless of what happens in conference title games. But only four spots carry the all-important first-round bye — extra rest that could be crucial for a run at the national title.

For the rest, championship weekend promises plenty of drama. Miami continues to hover in the conversation, still behind Notre Dame despite a head-to-head win, and could rise or fall depending on the committee’s adjustments Tuesday in the penultimate CFP Rankings. The ACC remains nothing short of chaotic, where a Duke win over Virginia could upend the league’s automatic bid and create real playoff chaos. Meanwhile, BYU has a chance to play spoiler — a win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game could deliver a second CFP participant from the conference and further shake the at-large picture.

With the final playoff bracket on the horizon, which teams are locked in and which still need a miracle? This final edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report examines every Power Four contender and their path.

🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver’s seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race

Note: Rankings used are Week 14 CFP Rankings

🚀 On cruise control

Effectively clinched a spot regardless of conference championship outcomes

No. 1 Ohio State (12-0, 9-0): The losing streak to Michigan is finally broken, and the Buckeyes are headed back to the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2020. Their win over the Wolverines sets up an undefeated-vs.-undefeated showdown in Indianapolis. A first-round bye may already be locked up for Ohio State regardless of the outcome.

No. 2 Indiana (12-0, 9-0): Don’t tell Indiana it can’t hang with the big boys. The Hoosiers finished their first-ever undefeated regular season to secure their first trip to the Big Ten Championship Game — just 50 miles from campus — where fellow unbeaten Ohio State awaits. Indiana hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes in 37 years. Barring an embarrassing blowout, a first-round bye should be secured.

No. 4 Georgia (11-1, 7-1): Could the Bulldogs be the SEC’s only hope for a first-round CFP bye? It’s possible. Georgia returns to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game for the fifth straight season — and the eighth time in the last decade under Kirby Smart.

No. 6 Oregon (11-1, 8-1): A first-round bye isn’t out of the cards for the Ducks. Their final seed hinges on a few conference title-game results — a Texas Tech loss would help, as would a Georgia defeat, which could open a path into the top four assuming Oregon moves ahead of Texas A&M in Tuesday’s rankings.

No. 7 Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1): What will the committee do with the Rebels? Lane Kiffin was “Callin’ Baton Rouge” and won’t coach Ole Miss, raising questions about how the committee evaluates a program without its headman. Could Ole Miss get downgraded like 2023 Florida State without its QB1? Definitely a storyline to watch that could have a domino effect on the playoff picture.

No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2): It looked like the Sooners might finally fall victim to their own bad offense and see CFP hopes evaporate. But Isaiah Sategna came through again. The defense deserves credit, yet Oklahoma’s offense has been really poor — tied for the second-worst success rate in FBS since Week 12. Doesn’t matter how ugly it gets, it is still set to host a first-round CFP game in Norman.

No. 5 Texas Tech (11-1, 8-1): The Red Raiders will lock up a first-round bye with a win in the Big 12 Championship Game, where a motivated BYU awaits. Even with a loss, Texas Tech is safely in the 12-team field as a host for a first-round game — as long as it doesn’t slide below the No. 8 seed.

No. 3 Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1): The Aggies’ path has been a casualty of the SEC tiebreaker system — poor conference opponent win percentage knocked them out of the tiebreakers, leaving them last in a four-way tie at the top despite entering the final week unbeaten. How Texas A&M lands in the committee’s rankings will be interesting, but hosting a first-round playoff game is likely.

🟢 In the driver’s seat

Control their path, can secure bid with win in conference championship

No. 10 Alabama (10-2, 7-1): On paper, Alabama should be a near-lock to remain in the CFP bracket even with a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game — but this is a committee that operates without anything resembling firm rules or consistency. In past years it hasn’t penalized teams for losing conference championships, yet betting on committee logic is always a risky game.

No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2): The Fighting Irish aren’t fully comfortable yet. Despite one of the hottest streaks in the country, winning 10 consecutive games by an average margin of 29.7 points, Notre Dame is vulnerable. If BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, it would give the conference two CFP participants, likely knocking the Fighting Irish out of an at-large spot.

No. 18 Virginia (10-2, 7-1): The Cavaliers can save the ACC and the CFP committee a whole lot of headaches by beating Duke in the title game and delivering the league a drama-free automatic bid. These two just met two weeks ago, and Virginia handled business in Durham.

No. 11 BYU (11-1, 8-1): The Cougars didn’t get the chaos they needed down the stretch to climb into at-large territory, so the path is simple: avenge their lone loss by beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. And recent history says that’s hardly impossible — the last three times the Big 12 title game was a regular-season rematch, the team that lost the first meeting won the rematch.

🟡 Bumper-to-bumper

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others

No. 12 Miami (10-2, 6-2): Miami is shaping up to be the team everyone argues the committee may be undervaluing unless the committee shakes things up in the final two sets of rankings. The Hurricanes beat Notre Dame head-to-head in Week 1 and share the same record, yet they’re still sitting several spots behind the Fighting Irish. Their path exists only if the committee moves them up on Tuesday.

🔴 Sitting on the shoulder

Technically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaos

No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2, 6-2): Will Diego Pavia and the Commodores get a bump on Tuesday after that statement win at rival Tennessee? Vanderbilt now owns four wins over teams ranked at the time, but all four could vanish from the CFP Rankings this week if Tennessee drops out and Missouri stays out — a résumé boost that might disappear right when it needs it most.

No. 16 Texas (9-3, 6-2): Texas just handed previously unbeaten Texas A&M its first loss, giving the Longhorns a third top-10 win. They also preserved their status as the only team to take top-ranked Ohio State to the wire. But that stumble at Florida looms large — and likely keeps Texas on the outside looking in.

Duke (7-5, 6-2): How is a five-loss team even in the CFP conversation? If Duke wins the ACC Championship Game against Virginia, it’s going to trigger chaos one way or another. The North Texas–Tulane winner in the American is in, and James Madison should have a path if it wins the Sun Belt. But if the Dukes — not to be confused with Duke — somehow slips and the Blue Devils pulls the upset? We’re staring down the real possibility of a five-loss playoff team. Total, glorious pandemonium.

⛔ Out of the race

Effectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoff

ACC: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, No. 23 Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, No. 22 Pittsburgh, No. 21 SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12: No. 25 Arizona, No. 20 Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, No. 13 Utah, West Virginia

Big Ten: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, No. 15 Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, No. 17 USC, Washington, Wisconsin

SEC: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, No. 19 Tennessee