The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes started the year ranked No. 10 in the preseason poll, so the idea that the Hurricanes finished the year in the College Football Playoff should not be surprising. Mario Cristobal entered 2025 coming off a 10-win season with one of the best offensive lines in football, so Miami essentially fulfilled expectations as one of the last teams in the field for the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
But everything that has happened since Selection Sunday absolutely qualifies as Miami exceeding expectations, now one win away from winning the national championship for the first time since the legendary 2001 team. The Hurricanes went on the road as an underdog and beat Texas A&M. They followed that up by taking down Ohio State, the betting favorite to win it all, in the Cotton Bowl and then backed it up by winning an all-time thriller against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. Suddenly, the No. 10 seed in a 12-team bracket has made it all the way to the title game, even if there isn’t much of a “Cinderella” vibe around a program that won four national championships in an eight-year span from 1983-91 and put together some of the most talented teams in college football history around the turn of the century.
But while there isn’t much of a Cinderella angle to attach to Miami, there certainly is an underdog angle, and some of that comes with the opponent in No. 1 Indiana. The betting spread for the College Football Playoff National Championship has the Hurricanes as an underdog of more than a touchdown, so what are the keys to Miami once again exceeding expectations and handing the Hoosiers their first loss of the season? Let’s get into the pivot points for the matchup.
1. Pass rush has to be dominant
Miami leads all FBS teams with 47 sacks on the season, and that pass rush has been the key unlocking the year-over-year defensive improvement that pushed the Hurricanes over the edge. A 10-win team one year ago, Miami gave up far too many explosive plays and had to rely too much on Cam Ward for answers and second half heroics. Now Miami is giving up less explosive plays and creating big-time negative plays on their own with the dynamic duo of Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. Bain, in particular, has been elite in the playoff wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State with four sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss combined in the two wins.
But against Ole Miss? Zero pressures and zero tackles for loss.
Ole Miss allotted for extra help in the form of double teams and also utilized tempo to limit the opportunities for Miami’s defense to get set and tee off on the quarterback. Bain still finished with a good performance (five recorded pressures), but the absence of those game-changing negative plays did put more responsibility on Carson Beck and the offense to score against the Rebels’ defense. There’s a step up in competition in terms of what Miami’s offense will be facing in the title game, so it’s an absolute must that one of the nation’s best pass rushing teams lives up to its reputation on Monday night. It does not have to be Bain, specifically, as Mesidor or a number of defenders could end up delivering the timely sack or tackle for loss to help Miami’s efforts to win. But anyone who has watched Miami, and certainly any of the NFL teams looking forward to drafting him in the spring, know that Bain is a player capable of taking a game over. If Miami is going to play its best football, Bain needs to be a big part of the picture.
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2. Win the time of possession battle
The strength of Miami’s offense starts at the line of scrimmage, behind an offensive line that bunches up tight and plows forward to create room for the run game and keep a clean pocket for Beck on pass plays. They’ve got certified future pros individually but also an outstanding collective understanding of how to play together, and close wins in the playoff have highlighted just how crucial it is for Miami to be able to string together long drives behind that line. The bruising approach allows for Miami to lean on you for four quarters and then be stronger in the crucial short-yardage situations, while also lulling a defense into mistake that could spring a long Mark Fletcher run when you least expect it. And when you’re running the football effectively and leaning on the defense for four quarters, it usually leads to winning the time of possession battle.
Miami’s edge controlling the football has been a factor all season long, and entering the title game, the Hurricanes rank 5th nationally in time of possession averaging approximately 33:42 minutes per game. Of the four teams ahead of Miami, two are service academies (Army and Air Force), so it’s fair to argue that among non-option teams the Hurricanes are one of the most ball dominant teams in the country. The issue, at least in terms of projecting the edge in the national championship game, is that Indiana is 6th nationally with an average time of possession that is approximately 25 seconds less than Miami on the season. It is not possible for both teams to possess the football for 33 minutes, so clearly something has to give when it comes to winning third downs to extend drives and taking care of the football.
3. Mistake-free football from the offense
Speaking of taking care of the football, Miami needs to make sure it avoids the kind of errors that doomed them in both of their losses and nearly became an issue in the CFP semifinal win against Ole Miss. The Hurricanes are 104th nationally in penalties assessed per game and 84th in penalty yards per game. Indiana, on the other hand, is top five in both categories. The absence of mistakes was a highlight of the win against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, as Miami slayed the dragon that was the betting favorite to win it all with zero accepted penalties and a +1 advantage in terms of turnover margin. The Hurricanes lost a fumble early in the game but didn’t allow Ohio State to take advantage, then picked off Julian Sayin twice and ran one of those back the other way for a touchdown.
The same story played out the week before against Texas A&M as Malachi Toney did lose a fumble in the fourth quarter that appeared incredibly costly, but with two interceptions and a fumble recovery, the defense made sure that Miami finished with a +2 in turnover margin. Then against Ole Miss we saw Carson Beck throw his first interception of the playoff run, and the team as a whole commit nine penalties. Procedural penalties on offense and holding calls can be absolute drive-killers, but so could multiple interceptions, like Beck’s performances in losses to Louisville (four picks) and SMU (two picks).
You could probably copy and paste the “play a clean game” key for any team in any year when it comes to the high stakes of the national championship and high quality of teams that make it this far in the College Football Playoff, but it feels particularly poignant when we’re talking about these two teams. Indiana’s deserved reputation is as a team that does not make mistakes or beat itself and can capitalize on your mistakes to increase its competitive edge. Miami, on the other hand, is a few mental errors away from giving Indiana that edge. If the Hurricanes play the same kind of clean game they did against Ohio State, the team will be in the mix to win deep into the second half. But if Miami starts turning the ball over and committing costly penalties early, it could be a long night in Hard Rock Stadium.
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4. Malachi Toney splash plays
Is there anything Malachi Toney can’t do? Miami’s superstar freshman has had an amazing journey, growing up in the area with an affection for “The U” and even the motivation to re-classify and join the program as a 17-year-old in January 2025. A three-star prospect with obvious speed, Toney won over the coaching staff with his work ethic and preparation coming into the season. He was a well-kept secret until he exploded in the season opener against Notre Dame with six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown. From there, he has become among the most consistently effective skill players in the country.
Toney has at least five catches in 13 of Miami’s 15 games this season, and he leads the team in both receiving yards (1,089) and receiving touchdowns (9) while also serving as a dangerous piece of the run game and working as a punt returner. His success throughout the season has brought plenty of defensive attention here in the College Football Playoff, but that hasn’t prevented him from using his game-changing athleticism to make plays — like when he blew past the Ole Miss defense to connect with Carson Beck on a 36-yard go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Fiesta Bowl.
When the money is on the table, your best players have to be your best players. Toney is a superstar and the kind of game-breaker that can turn ordinary bubble screens in to extraordinary explosive plays. Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has had a 1,000-yard receiver in each of his three seasons as Mario Cristobal’s offensive coordinator, but things seem different with Toney. The intention with which he is moved around the offense and given the opportunities to make a splash play are for very good reason, and given the competition, it’s going to require Toney and the offense to cash in on those opportunities if Miami is going to be successful.
5. Decision-making on the sideline
Few coaches have done more to improve their stock during this postseason than Mario Cristobal. Long considered one of the elite recruiters in the game, Cristobal had stacked up a collection of criticism when it comes to game management. Choosing not to take a knee in an eventual loss against Georgia Tech in 2023 is the over-simplified poster child of that criticism, but fourth down decisions and timeout usage as well have spots where Cristobal hasn’t necessarily been held to the same standard as other coaches who recruit at his level.
Lazy narratives are still narratives until results force them to change, and Miami has forced the conversation to change around Cristobal because of the way he has prepared his team and coached in wins against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss. He’s gone toe-to-toe with a couple of the top coaches and definitely a handful of the most talented rosters, yet continuously led the way to reputation-changing wins. You might have scratched your head at the decision to kick a chip shot field goal in the third quarter at Texas A&M or some timeout usage along the way, but Cristobal is pressing the right buttons to get his players to play their best football when the stakes are the highest. That, more than anything, signifies some good coaching.
Now, all that said … there very well could be a moment, or several moments, where the College Football Playoff National Championship is hinging on a decision from the Miami sideline. Fourth down calls, end-of-half scenarios and halftime adjustments will all be paramount to setting up the Hurricanes for their best shot to knock off No. 1 Indiana. If the ghosts of decision making past are lurking around Hard Rock Stadium, an old lazy narrative could suddenly become very loud. But Cristobal aces this test and delivers the program’s sixth national championship, we will discuss it as one of the great stories in college football history. After being lost in the wilderness for two decades, Miami and its former player turned head coach will be finally freed of the burden stemming from frequently having the talent but rarely delivering the results.
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