This season’s College Football Playoff bracket is coming into focus following Tuesday night’s third CFP Rankings reveal from the selection committee. However, for the half-dozen teams still jockeying for position on the bubble in at-large contention, there are three SEC games with heightened meaning over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Auburn (4-6), Missouri (7-3) and LSU (6-4) are the harbingers of playoff chaos the rest of the month as teams outside of the top 12 who could torch the resumes built by the likes of Alabama and Oklahoma.
This is exactly where Sooners coach Brent Venables wanted to be coming out of an October loss to Ole Miss that threatened playoff hopes for Oklahoma (8-2). The Sooners’ immediate response was consecutive ranked SEC road wins, putting them back in control of their playoff destiny with two games to play.
Since the committee’s 2025 debut playoff rankings earlier this month, no team inside the top 12 has lost to an opponent outside of the projected bracket — which is what it’s going to take down the stretch for this chaos scenario within the SEC to unfold. We’re circling three teams to watch with opportunities to hand current playoff contenders a disappointing end to the season.
Auburn
Chaos opportunity: vs. No. 10 Alabama, Nov. 29
There’s considerable pressure on Alabama in this spot. If the Crimson Tide lose during rivalry weekend, not only will Alabama miss out on an appearance in the SEC Championship Game, but back-to-back losses in its final two SEC contests likely takes Kalen DeBoer’s team out of the playoff bracket altogether.
Auburn has lost five straight in the rivalry series with Alabama, with both wins this decade coming on The Plains. In 2019, the Tigers upended the fifth-ranked Crimson Tide, 48-45, ending Alabama’s playoff hopes during the four-team era. Two years prior, Alabama came to Jordan-hare Stadium unbeaten and ranked No. 1 before a loss to the Tigers pushed then-coach Nick Saban’s team to No. 4.
In their only game since firing Hugh Freeze, Auburn piled up 563 yards of total offense and 38 points in a loss at Vanderbilt in Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels’ second start at quarterback. The Tigers have lost five games against ranked opponents this season by just 36 combined points.
Last fall, No. 2 Ohio State lost to unranked Michigan in the regular-season finale, which caused the Buckeyes to miss out on the Big Ten Championship Game and slip four spots in the final playoff rankings, squandering a shot at a first-round bye. A similar scenario unfolding for Alabama would be far worse given the expected number of at-large hopefuls who will have 10 wins and considerably more impressive finishes down the stretch.
There’s no way around it — the Iron Bowl’s a must-win for the Crimson Tide.
If Auburn beats Alabama
Bubble teams on the outside looking in — namely BYU, Vanderbilt, Miami — would have a shot during final deliberations. You can toss Texas in that group should the Longhorns beat Texas A&M that same weekend. The likelihood of the SEC setting a new record with five playoff entries would weaken behind the Aggies, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma.
Missouri
Chaos opportunity: at No. 8 Oklahoma, Nov. 22
There’s optimism Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula could return for Saturday’s showdown with the Sooners, great news for Missouri considering he went down with an ugly ankle injury only three weeks ago against Vanderbilt. While Oklahoma’s done a great job this season limiting the opposition’s best weapons on offense, that’s an unfortunate development for a Sooners defense that will already be dealing with the nation’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, coming off a 300-yard explosion. Oklahoma’s No. 1 against the run in the SEC and No. 3 nationally behind Texas Tech and Miami, so they’re geared to combat Missouri’s strengths.
These two former Big 12 rivals have split their last four meetings and Missouri would like nothing more than to derail Oklahoma’s path to the playoff with a victory. Three losses to ranked teams in the SEC this season will keep the Tigers outside of the bracket, however.
If Missouri beats Oklahoma
The committee will have choices to make prior to their fourth rankings reveal. This would open up various possibilities, including but not limited to a path for two ACC selections, an entry from BYU or Utah if Texas Tech wins the Big 12, Texas making its way back into the at-large conversation and an argument for a two-loss Oregon should the Ducks lose to USC this weekend. The Sooners’ playoff path would no longer be in their control.
LSU
Chaos opportunity: at No. 8 Oklahoma, Nov. 29
On paper, this should be the Sooners’ least worrisome game over their final two matchups of the regular season. Oklahoma’s likely going to play an LSU team without Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback and that has struggled mightily on offense this fall. But the Tigers could have a bit of confidence under Michael Van Buren after consecutive wins. Oklahoma lost by 20 points last season in Baton Rouge, so this one’s marked inside the Sooners’ locker room. And given where this one’s situated on the schedule, Oklahoma will be inside the top 10 knowing a win locks in a playoff appearance and possible first-round home game.
If LSU beats Oklahoma
There would be unrest associated with Brent Venables’ program given five previous wins this season over ranked teams. A setback would be a colossal development for the Sooners, who would’ve battled through a challenging slate only to lose to LSU’s worst team since 2020. This is one Steve Sarkisian and Texas will be watching closely. Should the Sooners and Longhorns both finish 9-3, Texas has the head-to-head advantage which could be a determining factor in a “last team in” scenario from the committee.
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