It’s the final college basketball Saturday of the regular season, before all the conference tournaments tip off. Here is my early look at two of Saturday’s biggest college basketball games based on the opening lines. This Saturday features two big rivalry games, one between Duke and North and Carolina and the other Auburn traveling to Alabama with the Tide coming off a loss.
I’ll give an early lean for each game and where I think the line will move closer to tip-off. These are just leans, unless I mention I officially gave out a pick on SportsLine in the analysis.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Duke -15.5, 144.5 (FanDuel)
Duke will be looking for revenge Saturday night after losing to North Carolina in the final seconds back on Feb. 7. The Blue Devils controlled most of that first game but went ice cold from the field in the final five minutes, allowing UNC to come back and steal the win at home.
Since that loss, Duke has been on a roll. The Blue Devils have won seven straight by an average of 24 points. North Carolina has won four straight themselves after getting blown out by in-state rival NC State.
The key here could be the availability of UNC star Caleb Wilson. The freshman has missed the last six games with a broken hand but is trying to return for the regular-season finale. Even though the injury is to his non-shooting hand, I can’t see Wilson being 100 percent if he plays. My guess is Hubert Davis saves him for the ACC Tournament next week.
I thought Duke was by far the better team in the first meeting and let one slip away in the final seven minutes. You know the Blue Devils have this game circled, and I think they win big at home. I also expect them to get out to a fast start, so if you don’t want to lay the 15.5 points, look to back Duke on the first-half line.
Lean: Duke -15.5
Bet on Duke to cover the spread at FanDuel, where new users get $100 if their first bet wins:
Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama -8.5, 176.5 (DraftKings)
I don’t love backing Alabama as a big favorite because the Crimson Tide are allergic to playing defense. However, Auburn is limping toward the finish line after a rough season and could be in trouble on Saturday.
The Tigers are coming off a win at home over lowly LSU, although they are just 2-7 in their last nine games. One of those losses was 96-92 to Alabama. While that game was close, Auburn hasn’t looked good since, losing ugly games to SEC bottom-feeders Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Alabama was cruising until running into Georgia on Tuesday. The Tide had won eight straight and while the defense struggles at times, Alabama’s offense is elite. The Crimson Tide rank third in offensive efficiency on KenPom and have scored 88+ points a ridiculous 22 times this season.
I like this spot for Alabama at home coming off the loss to Georgia. The Tide can still get the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament with a win and while the defense is a concern, Auburn’s is even worse. The Tigers rank 11th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and are dead last in three-point defense.
These two teams traditionally play closer, higher-scoring games with the last two being decided by a total of six points. Still, I think Alabama rolls at home Saturday. I also like the Over even at the high number of 176.5. The last four matchups in this series have totaled 188, 184, 179 and 180 points.
Leans: Alabama -8.5 and Over 176.5
Bet the Over on Auburn vs. Alabama at DraftKings, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet of $5 or more wins:
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