The NCAA Tournament is just a couple of weeks away, so it’s a good time to look at championship futures. Michigan (+380), Duke (+420) and Arizona (+500) are the three clear favorites to win it all at FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by Florida at +1000.
Because the three top teams are a combined 78-6, it’s created some value in the college basketball championship futures market. Here are a couple of teams to bet and one to avoid with two weeks to go in the regular season. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best bet: UConn Huskies (+2000)
I’m writing this ahead of the UConn-St. John’s game on Wednesday. If the Huskies win the rematch, this number will likely drop to +1500. I think +2000 or better is the buy-low point for UConn to win the national championship.
One reason I believe the Huskies are flying a bit under the radar is because they play in the weak Big East conference. UConn had a killer non-conference schedule, so wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Texas got people excited.
However, the Huskies have played just one big game since Christmas and that was a 81-72 loss to the Red Storm. That’s why the rematch is so important. It’s UConn’s last big game until a potential third meeting in the Big East Tournament, so we could see a pretty big shift in their odds based on that result.
The key metric to predict a college basketball national champion is finding teams that rank top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. UConn is right on the cusp, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency as of Feb. 25.
The Huskies also create a lot of turnovers and are a strong rebounding team. The only metric I look at for the NCAA Tournament where UConn falls short is free throw shooting. The Huskies hit just 70% from the foul line, and that can be a factor in close games.
I came into the season thinking UConn was one of the top teams in the country and my opinion hasn’t changed. We are now at the buy point on the Huskies. There is good value backing UConn +2000 or better to win the national championship. I officially bet them last week at +2200.
Back UConn to win the national title at DraftKings, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets when they wager $5 or more and that bet wins:
Best value: Arkansas Razorbacks (+4000)
Arkansas can be allergic to playing defense but I am starting to love this team more and more, and think the Hogs can be a factor if they get a good draw in the NCAA Tournament.
The game that got me interested in Arkansas was the 117-115 double-overtime loss to Alabama. Obviously, allowing 117 points isn’t good. The thing I like, though, is how John Calipari attacked the game. He knew his defense wasn’t going to slow down the Tide, so he played super fast and matched them bucket for bucket. If the Hogs play that way in March, they will be a tough out.
Like Alabama, Arkansas’ Swiss cheese defense will probably catch up to them at some point. The difference between the two teams, though, is Darius Acuff. I don’t think we are talking about Acuff enough as maybe being the best player in the country. The freshman can be a difference-maker in the NCAA Tournament, especially late in close games.
Another thing I like about the Hogs is they take care of the ball. Arkansas ranks No. 1 in turnover percentage, so it doesn’t give up many cheap baskets off mistakes. I think the national semifinals are going to be chalk again this season. However, if one team crashes the party, it could be Arkansas. The Hogs are worth a look at +1000 to make the national semifinals and +4000 to win the national championship.
Bet on the Razorbacks to win the NCAA Tournament at FanDuel, where new users can get $100 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins:
Team to avoid: Louisville Cardinals (+8000)
I really want to like Louisville, but the Cardinals being 9-6 in the weak ACC is kind of a joke. Something I look for entering the NCAA Tournament is success away from home. No team plays home games in the tournament, and Louisville losing six road games already this season is concerning.
And let me specify, there is no shame in losing to Duke on the road. However, losses at Stanford, SMU, and short-handed North Carolina point to a team that is inconsistent and hard to trust. I believe Louisville is more likely to lose its first game than make a deep tournament run.
Mikel Brown Jr. is a stud and he is certainly good enough to put Louisville on his back in March. Still, there is no world where this team should be in seventh place in the ACC on Feb. 25. The Cardinals are one of those teams I like on paper, but when I watch them play, something is missing.
It might seem like good value to bet Louisville at +8000 to win it all. The Cardinals are a pass for me, though. It could be one and done in the NCAA Tournament for the second-straight year if Louisville draws a dangerous first-round opponent like Stephen F. Austin.
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