The NCAA Tournament is just over a month away, so it’s a good time to look at championship futures. Arizona +390 and Michigan +500 are the two favorites to win it all at FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by Duke at +700. Because Arizona and Michigan are a combined 40-1 and have been considered the two top teams for most of the season, it’s created some value in the college basketball championship futures market.
Here are a couple of teams to bet and one to avoid as we enter February. All odds are from FanDuel.
Best bet: Houston Cougars (+1400)
I personally bet Houston at +1600 a couple of months ago and still like the Cougars at anything +1200 or better. The NCAA Tournament is all about matchups, and I like teams that can win multiple ways.
The three metrics I look at closely are defense, rebounding and free throw shooting. Teams will likely need to win a close game in March when they don’t shoot well and those three metrics can be the difference. The Cougars rank seventh in defensive efficiency, 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 46th in free-throw shooting percentage on KenPom while facing one of the toughest schedules in the country.
The other thing about Houston is while the Cougars have some veterans returning from last season, Kelvin Sampson is relying on four freshmen to play big minutes, led by leading scorer Kingston Flemings (17 PPG). They have improved throughout the year and I anticipate them playing their best basketball come March.
There are some sexier teams on the board this season, so Houston is flying a little under the radar. However, when the tournament tips off in six weeks, playing against the Cougars will still be the basketball equivalent of getting a root canal. I think Houston can make a deep run for the second straight season.
Bet on Houston to win the national championship at FanDuel, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins:
Best value: BYU Cougars (+3500)
Looking at the teams in the +3000 to +4000 range, BYU offers the most upside. Teams that shoot the lights out can get on a run in the NCAA Tournament, and the Cougars can certainly shoot, ranking 11th in offensive efficiency. BYU will also have the most talented player in the tournament with 6-9 freshman AJ Dybantsa. When games are close at the end, the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft could be the difference.
BYU has three losses on the season — to UConn, Arizona and Texas Tech by a combined 18 points. While Dybantsa and the offensive firepower gets all the love, the other thing I really like about the Cougars is their length.
BYU ranks 65th in height and plays six guys who are 6-foot-6 or taller. They remind me of those old Syracuse teams whose length caused its opponents problems in the tournament. That size makes BYU a strong rebounding team and helps it create turnovers that lead to easy baskets in transition.
There is a lot to like about BYU heading into February. The defense needs to be better against top competition — the Cougars allowed 84+ points in their three losses. However, this is a team that can make a deep run if it gets a favorable bracket. The Cougars are worth a look at +3000 or better.
Back BYU to win the national title at DraftKings, where new users can get $300 in bonus bets when they wager $5 or more and that bet wins:
Team to avoid: Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2000)
Gonzaga has the same problem every season. The Bulldogs always play their toughest games in November because the WCC is so weak. It’s not their fault, it’s just reality.
My argument against Gonzaga has always been it doesn’t get an opportunity to improve throughout the season because it is hammering opponents like Portland by 30. And while I applaud the Bulldogs for always facing a tough early schedule, the bottom line is games played in November really aren’t relevant come tournament time.
Think of it this way: the New England Patriots are playing in the Super Bowl and they lost at home to the Raiders in Week 1. To quote Bill Murray in the movie Meatballs, “It just doesn’t matter!”
Because Gonzaga beats up in inferior competition for two months, their metrics are always misleading. According to KenPom, the Bulldogs rank top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. I’m sorry but I’ve seen Gonzaga play defense. It’s not the ninth-best unit in the country.
I’m not saying Gonzaga can’t make a deep run in March. What I am saying is I wouldn’t touch the Bulldogs at +2000. They would need to be closer to +4000 for me to consider putting money on them to win the title.
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