Is it defensible to refer to the defending National League Central champs as “upstarts?” It is, and such is the state of the expectations — and the baseball — in Milwaukee these days. The Brewers on Saturday night in L.A. ticked off their ninth straight win with an 8-7 triumph over the Dodgers, and five of those nine straight wins have come at the expense of the defending World Series champions.
This, though, is not some outlier heater the Brewers are on. This is quite simply one of the best teams in Major League Baseball this season. The Saturday night win in Dodger Stadium pushed Pat Murphy’s squad to 58-40 on the season. That puts them on pace for 96 wins, which would tie the franchise record for most wins in a season (2011 and 2018). More to the present point, they remain only one game behind the juggernaut Chicago Cubs in the National League Central, which has, contrary to expectations, looked like the strongest division in baseball so far. At the same time, the Brewers are in the top wild-card spot in the NL, and they have a playoff-position cushion of five games. That’s substantial here in the second half, and as such SportsLine gives them a 94.7% chance of making the postseason. The Brewers have backed it all up with a plus-84 run differential; across all of Major League Baseball just the Cubs and New York Yankees have a stronger run differentials.
So, yes, the Brewers seem once again bound for playoff baseball. If trends hold, this will be their seventh trip to the postseason in the last eight years. A deep run has eluded them since 2018, when they made it as far as the NLCS, but they keep getting their cracks at it despite bottom-10 payrolls and substantial roster turnover. In recent years, they’ve kept it up despite trading away ace Corbin Burnes, losing lead decision-maker David Stearns to the Mets and manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs, and just this past winter seeing shortstop Willy Adames sign a lucrative free-agent contract with the Giants. Still and yet — and with increasingly limited contributions from owner Mark Attanasio — the Brewers just win.
This season, it’s been a balanced path to success. Consider:
- The Brewers rank seventh in MLB in runs scored.
- They rank third in MLB in rotation ERA.
- They rank 10th in MLB in Defensive Efficiency Rating, or the percentage of balls in play that the defense converts into outs.
- They lead the majors in base-running runs above average, according to FanGraphs.
As you may have gleaned from above, the rotation is doing the heavy lifting for Milwaukee, and it figures to continue. Starting pitching was the Brewers’ strength even before rookie phenom (and All-Star) Jacob Misiorowski made his debut on June 6 and even before stalwart frontline presence Brandon Woodruff made his return just two starts ago. Long an organization known for pitching development, the Brewers right now appear to have more good starting pitchers than they can use, and that’ll especially be the case once Nestor Cortes returns from his elbow injury. Rotation depth, though, is there until it isn’t, and that’s truer than ever in the contemporary era of pitcher attrition.
The Brewers may opt to keep all that in place leading up to the trade deadline, which could give them some flexibility to fill bullpen roles on the side should the stretch-drive demand such. Yes, they’ll no doubt get plenty of calls on Freddy Peralta and others, but it’s hard to imagine that a team in the mix for best record in baseball would rob Peter to pay Paul in such a way.
At an individual level, there just aren’t many soft underbellies to be found on the Milwaukee roster. Shortstop has been a weak spot thanks to Joey Ortiz’s struggles, but that’s really about it. There are “stars and scrubs” rosters to be found across MLB, and then there’s Milwaukee’s “neither stars nor scrubs” construction in which the whole feels greater than the constituent elements. In a way, it’s fitting formula for a team that’s doggedly consistent in its outcomes but still somehow overlooked.
Looking forward, the Brewers of course have designs not only on the NL Central title but also on a first-round bye. The schedule ahead is one of MLB’s toughest, as the Brewers’ remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .513. That ranks fourth. The Cubs, meantime, have a remaining figure of .481, which ranks 29th. From the Milwaukee standpoint, there is unwelcome rigor there, yes, but there’s also opportunity. Lifting up Milwaukee’s strength of schedule are eight remaining head-to-head games against those Cubs. It’s no great stretch to say the outcome of those games could determine the division title and one of the two byes available to NL clubs.
It’s looking like a heavyweight fight down the stretch in the NL Central, and no less a heavyweight than the Dodgers would surely attest that the Brewers can win that fight. Maybe that’s contrary to expectations coming into the season, but it probably shouldn’t have been.
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