Breaking down NFL playoff picture, plus Week 13 grades and Giants-Patriots predictions for Monday night

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It’s the first day of December and I have some news that’s almost impossible to believe: The Jacksonville Jaguars are in first place in their division. The last time the Jags were in first place this late in the season came in 2023, but they didn’t even make the playoffs that year because they totally collapsed by losing five of their final six games. For the sake of everyone in Jacksonville, I hope that doesn’t happen again this year. 

Speaking of collapses, the Colts seem to be in the middle of one. Indianapolis is probably thrilled to see November end after losing three of four games during the month. In today’s newsletter, we’ll be grading Indy’s loss, plus we’ll be breaking down the playoff picture and making some picks for tonight’s game between the Giants and Patriots. 

As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. NFL Week 13 grades: Rams and Colts both go down

Welcome to my favorite part of the Monday newsletter, which is where I hand out grades for all 32 teams. For the first time in nearly two months, we had EVERY team playing this week, so we’re actually handing out 30 grades this week (And two more after the Monday night game). 

Here are the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Panthers 31-28 over Rams (full recap)

• Rams takeaway: After playing perfect football for nearly 10 straight weeks, Matthew Stafford finally came crashing back to earth. The Rams QB essentially threw this game away with three turnovers, including a pick six in the first quarter. Stafford also lost a fumble in the final minutes of the game as the Rams were driving for a possible go-ahead score. The only silver lining here is that even with Stafford at his worst, the Rams almost still won, but the reality of the situation is that this loss could end up costing the Rams (9-3) the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Grade: C+
• Panthers takeaway: If the Panthers are going to make the playoffs this year, they’re going to need Bryce Young to prove he can come up big when they need him to, and that’s exactly what he did in this game. The Panthers won because Young was absolutely clutch on fourth down, going 2-for-2 for 76 yards and two touchdowns. Young got hot to end the 2024 season and it’s starting to look like that same version of Young might be showing up for the stretch run this year. Defensively, the Panthers did their best to put Matthew Stafford’s MVP campaign on ice. Not only did they force three turnovers, but they got a pick six from Mike Jackson in the first quarter. This win didn’t put the Panthers (7-6) in first place in the NFC South, but it almost certainly gave them the confidence that they can play with — and beat — the best teams in the NFC. Grade: A-

Texans 20-16 over Colts (full recap)

• Texans takeaway: The Texans have the best defense in the NFL and they proved it once again on Sunday. For the third straight week, Houston’s offense scored two touchdowns or less, but the Texans won anyway, because two touchdowns is all you need when you have this defense. They held Jonathan Taylor to just 85 yards and they pressured Daniel Jones into multiple bad passes on a day where the Colts QB completed just 51.9% of his passes. Offensively, C.J. Stroud looked a little rusty in his return to the field, but he looked much sharper during a second half where he completed 9 of 13 passes for 123 yards. This team is all about defense, though. If defense wins championships, then the Texans (7-5) have a very real chance to win the AFC South following this win. Grade: A-
• Colts takeaway: After starting the season 7-1, the Colts are suddenly in a funk. They’ve now lost three of their past four games and most of the blame for those losses falls on the offense. With defenses putting all of their focus on Jonathan Taylor, that’s put more pressure on Daniel Jones to carry the team and he hasn’t been able to do that (and it doesn’t help that he’s playing with a fractured fibula). If the offense doesn’t get things turned around soon, the Colts might not just lose out on their chance to win the AFC South, they might not make the playoffs. Grade: B-

Broncos 27-26 (OT) over Commanders (full recap)

• Broncos takeaway: The Broncos are turning into the cardiac kids: For the fourth straight week, they won a game by three points or less, and they did it because Bo Nix turned into Mr. Clutch. He wasn’t perfect in this game, but he was perfect in overtime, going 4 of 4 for 71 yards to set up RJ Harvey’s game-winning touchdown. The only reason this game went to overtime is because Denver’s defense surprisingly struggled to stop the Commanders. The Broncos gave up 419 yards of offense, which is the second-highest total they’ve surrendered all season. Although the defense struggled, Nik Bonitto still managed to save the day by batting down a Marcus Mariota pass on a potential game-winning 2-pointer in overtime. The Broncos always seem to find a way to win and that’s what good teams do. At 10-2, the Broncos aren’t just a good team, they’re looking like one of the best teams in the AFC. Grade: B-
• Commanders takeaway: The Commanders didn’t win, but they gave the Broncos all they could handle on Sunday night. With Marcus Mariota running the show, Washington’s offense was able to slice and dice its way through a Broncos defense that has been one of the best in the NFL this year. Not only did Mariota throw for 294 yards, but he also led the team in rushing with 55. Mariota took advantage of having Terry McLaurin back on the field: In his first game in more than a month, the Commanders receiver caught seven passes for 97 yards, including a TD in overtime. At 3-9, the Commanders won’t be going to the playoffs this year, but it’s pretty clear that no one on this team has given up on the season. Grade: B

As for the other 24 grades we handed out in Week 13, you can check those out by clicking here. 

2. NFL Week 13 winners and losers: Two head coaches make the losers list

You can’t have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. Cody Benjamin came up with this week’s list, and his list of losers included one coach from the AFC South and one coach from the NFC South.  

LOSERS

• Colts coach Shane Steichen. Steichen was a Coach of the Year favorite earlier this year, breathing new life into Daniel Jones while enjoying an MVP-level breakout by Jonathan Taylor. After starting 7-1, however, his Colts have now dropped three of their last four, surrendering a clear AFC South lead to the mercurial Jaguars. Jones, meanwhile, is operating on a bad leg, and the defense’s new prize, Sauce Gardner, is also hurt.
• Falcons coach Raheem Morris. Morris isn’t exactly calling the shots with a full deck, with Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London sidelined on offense. But the Falcons had little business letting Tyrod Taylor lead a come-from-behind victory for the Jets. Atlanta clearly outgained and out-possessed its competition, only to drop to 4-8 on the year thanks to a walk-off field goal. Nothing’s come up right for this regime.
• The Steelers. The AFC North is there for the taking with the Baltimore Ravens all kinds of sloppy, and yet Pittsburgh doesn’t look capable of putting up much of a late-season fight. The defense was scrappy early against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, but then the aging, ailing Aaron Rodgers took more big hits en route to another quiet outing, and Mike Tomlin’s defense couldn’t finish. Talk about ugly.

If you want to see the rest of Cody’s losers along with his full list of winners, be sure to click here. 

3. Overreactions from Week 13: Is Stafford’s MVP bid over? Will Steelers miss the playoffs? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 13 to decide if we’re all overreacting. 

Statement: Matthew Stafford’s MVP bid is over. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. In all, Stafford had three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) in a losing effort against the Panthers. Stafford’s second interception was returned 48 yards by corner Mike Jackson for a touchdown, and his fourth-quarter fumble following a sack effectively iced the game for Carolina. Naturally, this puts a dent into Stafford’s MVP bid and could cost him his standing as the betting favorite. However, it’d be a step too far to say that his pursuit is over. … If Stafford bounces back with strong performances over the next few weeks against opponents like the Lions (Week 15) and Seahawks (Week 16), his stock could be back up. 

Statement: Texans are team to beat in the AFC South. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The Texans may not be atop the AFC South at the moment, but they are a force to be reckoned with. Houston went into Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday and handed the then-first-place Colts a 20-16 defeat. That pushed Indy out of first place in the division and helped launch the Jaguars (who beat the Titans) into the top spot. The Texans are now in spitting distance as they are a game out in the loss column to both the Jaguars and Colts for first place. After splitting the season series with Jacksonville, the next tiebreaker between those two would be division record, which the Texans currently have the advantage (4-1 vs. 2-1). When it comes to leaping over the Colts, they could complete the season sweep in Week 18 when they host them at NRG Stadium. That creates a viable path for the Texans, especially after getting C.J. Stroud back this week to pair with arguably the best defense in the NFL.

Statement: Steelers are going to miss the playoffs. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. Yes, things aren’t exactly rosy at the moment, but this isn’t a death sentence just yet. The Ravens — specifically Lamar Jackson — have looked shaky in recent weeks, making them ripe for the picking down the stretch. Moreover, the Steelers host the Ravens next week in the first of two matchups over the final five weeks of the season. If Pittsburgh can hold up, the playoffs are still very much on the table.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. 

4. Breaking down the NFL playoff picture: Broncos and Bears hold the top seeds

Since the calendar has now hit December, it seems like a good time to start breaking down the playoff picture, so that’s what we’re going to start doing in this spot every Monday. 

Let’s check out the AFC first: 
1. Broncos (10-2) — AFC West leader
2. Patriots (10-2) — AFC East leader 
3. Jaguars (8-4) — AFC South leader
4. Ravens (6-6) — AFC North leader
5. Chargers (8-4)
6. Colts (8-4)
7. Bills (8-4)
IN THE HUNT
8. Texans (7-5)
9. Steelers (6-6)
10. Chiefs (6-6)
11. Dolphins (5-7)
12. Bengals (4-8)

AFC takeaway: The Colts are no longer in first place. I repeat, the Colts are no longer in first place. At the start of November, the Colts were 7-1 and it looked like they were going to run away with the division, but after losing three of four during the month, Indy is now in danger of not even making the playoffs. The Colts have the MOST DIFFICULT remaining strength of schedule in the NFL at .672. That being said, the Colts do get to play the Jags this week, so they could be right back on top of the division with a win on Sunday in Jacksonville. 

Monday night note: If the Patriots beat the Giants, they’ll move back up to the top spot in the AFC. 

Now, let’s check out the NFC standings: 
1. Bears (9-3)
2. Rams (9-3)
3. Eagles (8-4)
4. Buccaneers (7-5)
5. Seahawks (9-3)
6. Packers (8-3-1)
7. 49ers (9-4)
IN THE HUNT
8. Lions (7-5)
9. Cowboys (6-5-1)
10. Panthers (7-6)

NFC takeaway: The Bears haven’t finished as the top seed in the NFC in 19 years, but that’s where they currently sit after the Rams’ loss to the Panthers on Sunday. If the Bears are going to stay there, it won’t be easy, because they still have to face the Lions and 49ers, plus they have two games against the Packers. The first game against Green Bay will come this Sunday and first place in the NFC North will be on the line. Of course, the biggest surprise on the NFC list is the fact that Carolina is in the hunt. The Panthers are just a half game out of first place in the NFC South and they get to face the Bucs twice over the final five weeks. 

If you want a closer look at the playoff picture, we’ve got that here.  

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Giants at Patriots

For the first time in more than three years, New England is hosting a Monday night game. At 10-2, the Patriots could take on giant step closer toward clinching a playoff berth if they can win. The Giants are a big underdog at 7.5 points, but don’t count them out: They’ve already won two games this year as an underdog of 6.5 points or more. 

Also, this game will feature the return of Jaxson Dart, who hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in Week 10. 

Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

• Why the Giants can win: If the Giants are going to win, they’re likely going to have to control the game on the ground. The Giants are 2-1 this season when they rush for at least 150 yards, but 0-9 when they don’t. The Giants definitely seem to run the ball better when Dart is playing and a big reason for that is because of his mobility. In both of their wins this season, Dart rushed for at least 50 yards, which opened up the rest of the offense. Of course, Dart is coming back from a concussion, so it’s possible he’ll be hesitant to run. It will be interesting to see how he handles the game. 
• Why the Patriots can win: There’s a chance that we could see the Patriots offense go off in this game. The Giants will be going into tonight with one of the worst defenses in the NFL: They’ve given up up the third-most yards per game (385) and third-most points per game (27.8). Drake Maye still hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game this year, but this could be the night where it finally happens. The Patriots offense could have an explosive night and if that happens, the Giants could have a hard time keeping up. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. 

If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via BetMGM). 

• ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Drake Maye OVER 270.5 rushing AND passing yards (-115): The Patriots QB has gone OVER this total in three straight weeks with JUST his passing yards, but the best part of this prop is that you also get the rushing yards thrown in. Maye has been pretty solid with his legs this year, averaging 25.6 yards per game on the ground. Overall, Maye has gone over this 270.5 yards in nine of his 12 games this season and it feels like a safe bet that he’ll top it once again tonight. 
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Andres Borregales OVER 7.5 points (-130): The Patriots kicker has gone over this number in two straight games, including last week, when he scored 14 points in New England’s 26-20 win over the Bengals. Also, kickers have been averaging 7.7 points per game this year against the Giants, which would put Borregales right above this total. 

If you’re wondering how my props are doing this year, I’m 27-25 (11-13 on kicker props and 16-12 on all other props). And now, it’s time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR ‘MNF’

My pick: Patriots 26-23 over Giants
Dubin’s pick: Patriots 30-20 over Giants
Prisco’s pick: Patriots 31-21 over Giants
Tyler Sullivan: Patriots 24-20 over Giants
Jordan Dajani: Patriots 27-20 over Giants

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of us are taking the Patriots to win, but only three of us are taking them to cover as a heavy 7.5-point favorite. 

6. Extra points: Justin Herbert suffers broken hand

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Justin Herbert’s status up in the air for Week 14. The Chargers QB suffered a fracture in his left hand and he’s expected to undergo surgery on Monday. Since the injury is in his non-throwing hand, Herbert is hoping that he’ll be able to play a Week 14 showdown with the Eagles. “I’m treating it as if I’m playing Monday,” Herbert said after the win over the Raiders. 
• Sauce Gardner could be out multiple weeks. The Colts cornerback suffered a calf injury against the Texans, but it’s unclear how serious the injury is. “Felt like I got shot in the calf or something,” Gardner said after the game. “But it was high. I wasn’t thinking the worst.” Gardner thinks it’s a strain, and if that’s the case, it could possibly keep him out for a week or two. 
• Shedeur Sanders will start in Week 14. The Browns rookie QB will be keeping the starting job for at least another week. Sanders completed 16 of 25 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown in a 26-8 loss to the 49ers. His numbers won’t wow anyone, but he definitely played well enough to earn another start, and now, he’ll be getting that in Week 14 against the Titans. 
• NFL reveals national anthem singer for Super Bowl LX. Four-time Grammy nominee Charlie Puth will be handling the national anthem duties at the Super Bowl this year. Puth will be joined by 11-time Grammy winner Brandi Carlile, who will sing “America the Beautiful.”